Each week I’ll do an article on the NFL. It’s going to be simple. I’ll review the top notes from the previous week, look ahead to the next week and identify the Top 5 Waiver Wire guys for your fantasy league. After Week 4, I’ll share the Wegs Index on ranking the teams. I just need data for that to be shared.

NFL Week 1 – Review

Minkah Fitzpatrick Saves the Day with a Blocked Kick
  • Preseason Value – In Week 1, it was pretty clear that the teams that played starters a significant amount of time played much better than the teams who rested their players. BUF, KC, and PHI – they killed it, while GB, LAR and AZ looked terrible. There’s value in actually practicing football.
  • Defense Wins Early – As my podcast partner says, the Defenses are ahead of the Offenses at this stage. In Week 1, Unders hit at an 11-5 clip. Teams like PIT, SEA, CHI and TB won on Defense more than offense. It will take a while to get the high flying NFL unless you are the Eagles, Bills or Chiefs.
  • Huge Injuries Already – PIT – DE TJ Watt tore his pectoral, but avoids surgery yet will still he is out 6 weeks minimum. DAL – QB Dak Prescott injured his thumb in Week 1, and he requires surgery, but he will not be on IR with hopes to return sooner than the 8 week prognosis. SF – RB Elijah Mitchell (MCL) is out for 8 weeks. The Ravens’ bad luck continues with CB Kyle Fuller (ACL) and OT Ju’Wuan James (Achilles) both go on IR. PHI – DE Derek Barnett (ACL) is out for the year.
  • Incredible Finishes – The NFL didn’t disappoint with 2 OT games (including a tie), last second winning and losing FGs, and some incredible comebacks. PIT’s miraculous win with a blocked extra point with seconds remaining by Minkah Fitzpatrick only to have 2 missed FGs in OT. If that wasn’t enough, SEA forced 2 fumbles on their own 1 yard line and survived a missed 64 yard FG to get a win over DEN and former Seahawk, QB Russell Wilson. The NFL still is the best reality tv whether you are a gambler or not, even though Underdogs covered 9 of 16 games.

Top Waiver Pick Ups for Week 2

Wilson Will Get Run
  • RB, Jeff Wilson (SF) – With Mitchell out, Wilson will get plenty of run in the Shanahan offense. QB Trey Lance was not good, so the run game will get plenty of work in Week 2 at home versus SEA.
  • RB, Jaylen Warren (PIT) – Najee Harris may play, but he left with an injury in Week 1 and there’s no way they over use him. Warren will get plenty of carries, and he could see more time if Harris re-injures himself in the more limited role.
  • WR, Josh Palmer (LAC) – Keenan Allen pulled a hamstring on Sunday, and he will likely miss Week 2. Palmer should step into the #2 role with Herbert who spreads it around.
  • WR, Curtis Samuel (WAS) – Samuel saw 11 targets in Week 1 from Carson Wentz. It’s hard to overlook that, even if the average per target was low. Definitely a PPR guy more than standard.
  • WR, Robbie Anderson (CAR) – Baker Mayfield looked to Anderson 8 times for 5 catches, 102 yards and a TD. That’s great production that seems repeatable.

Week 2 Marquee Match Ups

They Meet Again
  • Chargers at Chiefs (-4, 54.5 Total) – Thursday, 9/15 at 7:15 PM Central – The best match up is the first game of the week in this AFC West showdown. QBs Herbert vs. Mahomes is an all time great QB duel. Plus, both teams played well in Week 1. I like the Chiefs to win this one at home, but it may be a tough one to cover the -4, Chargers stay within the number.
  • Dolphins at Ravens (-3.5, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 9/18 at 12 Noon Central – Both teams looked dominant in Week 1, so something has to give. I think the Ravens have more firepower on Offense than the Fins, so it may not be as close as advertised. BAL to win and Cover – I like Over the 44.5, too.
  • Bucs at Saints (+3, 44 Total) – Sunday, 9/18 at 12 Noon Central – The Saints have had the Bucs number with TB12 in NO in this NFC South battle, so will this be another game following the trend? The Saints barely escaped ATL with a win, and I don’t think they can hold up against the TB D. Bucs win and cover -3.
  • Vikings at Eagles (-2, 51 Total) – Monday, 9/19 at 7:30 PM Central – Two of the teams that looked their best offensively in Week 1 face off here. The Eagles grit will be tested, as they gave up 35 points to a lesser offense on Sunday, but the home crowd will be rabid. I like the Eagles to win and cover in this one.

Let’s hope Week 2 can live up to the billing.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.