We move on to my team’s division.
NFC North Preview
Green Bay Packers (+1200 Super Bowl, +500 NFC, -175 NFC North)
- Coaching: HC Matt Lefleur continues to try to get this team to the Super Bowl. Last year, even with Home Field Advantage, couldn’t get out of the Divisional Round. New OC Adam Stenavich (former run game coordinator) steps in as Nathaniel Hackett goes to DEN. DC Joe Barry returns, but on both sides, it should be the same plan.
- Personnel: For the Offense, the flirting with QB Aaron Rodgers got hot, but nothing materialized, as he will return yet again. That is probably the key decision in this division, because until he retires or moves, I just don’t see the other teams eclipsing the Pack. However, he did lose his #1 target in WR Davante Adams to LVR, which hurts, plus deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling went to KC. That leaves only Alan Lazard from last year’s team. They tried to fill the holes with Sammy Watkins (BAL) and the aged Randall Cobb (who was on last year’s team). Perhaps, rookie Christian Watson from ND State can surprise people or even Romeo Dobbs (Nevada) who I like a lot, but Rodgers doesn’t jive well with rookie WRs traditionally.. The lack of outside weapons will ultimately hurt the Pack, even if they plan to run the ball a lot with RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. On D, DT Jarran Reed was signed from KC to play next to DT Kenny Clark, and LB Quay Walker (Georgia) was drafted to start and both positions should help the Run D, but they did lose Za’Darius Smith on the outside.
- Outlook: The Pack are the best team in the division, and it isn’t all that close. Of course, if Rodgers got hurt, then that would change things. The real question is if the Packers can win in January. Without top flight WRs, I really don’t see it.
- Record: 12-5
Minnesota Vikings (+3300 Super Bowl, +1400 NFC, +235 NFC North)
- Coaching: Out is Mike Zimmer after a long tenure, and in comes HC Kevin O’Connell from the latest Rams’ OC to get a head job. O’Connell will be joined by OC Wes Phillips (Rams Passing Game Coordinator) and DC Ed Donatell from the Broncos. So, clearly, the Vikes will try to mimic the Rams on O – play action with deep shots, and on D a Vic Fangio style base.
- Personnel: On Offense, not a lot of new faces, just OG Jesse Davis from MIA, as the Offense was not the issue in 2021. Hopefully, O’Connell and Phillips can maximize RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson, as QB Kirk Cousins has been solid. On D though, big changes: DT Harrison Phillips (BUF), DE Za’Darius Smith (GB), LB Jordan Hicks (AZ), and CB Chandon Sullivan (GB) all come in to try and reconfigure this unit in the Donatell mold.
- Outlook: The Vikings have a really good Offense, but can this D hold up against top scoring teams. I’m not sure. Of all the teams that missed the playoffs in 2021 that could reverse their fortunes, to me it’s the Vikings. I have them just sneaking in at this point.
- Record: 9-8
Chicago Bears (+15000 Super Bowl, +7500 NFC, +1600 NFC North)
- Coaching: The Bears fired Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace for a complete rebuild. Enter HC Matt Eberflus (IND DC) who got lots of publicity from his time on mid-season Hard Knocks. Let’s see how good of a coach he is, as he needs to reform the D and get the most of out QB Justin Fields. His coordinators are: OC Luke Getsy, the Passing Game Coordinator from GB, and DC Alan Williams follows Eberflus from IND where he was the DB coach.
- Personnel: On O, the Bears tried to get more weapons for Fields as WR Alan Robinson was not re-signed, so they picked up Equanimeous St. Brown (GB) and Byron Pringle (KC). Plus, more protection with C Lucas Patrick (GB), OG Michael Schofield (LAC), OT Riley Reiff (CIN) and drafting OT Braxton Jones out of Utah. The Bears just acquired OT Alex Leatherwood, who was released by the Raiders, so maybe he can play better than his rookie year. Essentially an entire new line, which needs to gel together as a unit. On D, DT Eddie Goldman was released, but actually retired, so enter DT Justin Jones (LAC), LB Nicholas Morrow (LVR), CB Tavon Young (BAL, however he’s now on IR) and the drafting of CB Kyler Gordon (Washington) and S Jaquan Brisker (Penn State). Brisker does look like an elite player, but this whole D is almost new. I expect the Bears to struggle early and get better as the season goes on.
- Outlook: The Bears finally turned the page on bad drafting, trades and coaching. However, like most teams that are trying to rebuild on the fly, it is a process. I don’t like the Bears this year at all, but if Fields can improve and this new look group can play together, then 2023 should be much better. Maybe this is homerism, but I still see the Bears finish better than the Lions.
- Record: 6-11
Detroit Lions (+12500 Super Bowl, +6000 NFC, +800 NFC North)
- Coaching: As seen on Hard Knocks, HC Dan Campbell is back with his play hard team. His OC is Ben Johnson who got elevated from the TE Coach in 2021, while the DC Aaron Glenn is returning. However, if you watch Hard Knocks, Duce Staley is a big part of this staff. Campbell got the Lions to compete with inferior talent in 2021. Maybe he can get better results in 2022.
- Personnel: On Offense, new faces include WR DJ Chark from JAC and rookie WR Jameson Williams from Alabama. Besides that, they just need QB Jared Goff and the running game to be better. On D, the biggest addition is the #2 overall pick, DE Aidan Hutchinson out of Michigan. He has all the tools to be the next TJ Watt, but he will need help. DET signed other players: LB Chris Board and S DeShon Elliott from BAL, which should add toughness.
- Outlook: Look, I want the Lions to be better. They really have had only one or two good teams in 30 years. However, I just don’t see it in 2022. They should improve slightly, but I still only see 5 or 6 wins on the schedule.
- Record: 5-12
Prediction: Hard to see Green Bay not winning this division for the millionth time.
Wegs