We save the best for last in the AFC with the AFC West. The best division in football by a lot. That also makes it the hardest division to handicap, in my opinion.

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers (+1100 SB, +650 AFC, +225 AFC West)

Herbert Could Take the Next Step
  • Coaching – HC Brandon Staley (the gambler) returns his same staff as in 2021. Staley’s extremely aggressive choices on 4th down became the story in 2021. Still, his team effectively made the playoffs with a play in game against the Raiders which was an incredible game. The Defense needs to improve in 2022.
  • Personnel – The Offense remains mostly the same with QB Justin Herbert continuing to improve. He gets rookie OG Zion Johnson out of Boston College to protect him, and they add a piece in the backfield in RB Isaiah Spiller from Texas A&M. Like I mentioned, the D needs to be better. DT Sebastian Joseph-Day (from Rams) and DT Austin Johnson (NYG) should help shore up the middle, while trading for OLB Khalil Mack (from CHI) to help Bosa on the pass rush. Finally, CB Bryce Callahan was signed to play Nickelback.
  • Outlook – The Chargers have a complete team now. However, they play in such a tough division. I like them to emerge this year. It’s Herbert’s 3rd year, which is a key QB year, and the D has a lot more help than last year. They definitely make the playoffs. They will go as far as Herbert can take them.
  • Record – 11-6

Kansas City Chiefs (+1100 SB, +600 AFC, +170 AFC West)

Mahomes and the Chiefs Are Not Far Ahead of the Pack
  • Coaching – HC Andy Reid is running it back yet again. OC Eric Bieniemy continues to be passed on HC jobs, so he returns to run the hottest offense in the league, but they were more mortal in 2021 with the 2 high safety look mid-season. DC Steve Spagnuolo’s D was a far cry for the 2020 season, so look for improvement on that side of the ball.
  • Personnel – On O, the big change was the departure of the Cheetah, Tyreek Hill, who left for the money in MIA. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling from GB will try to be that deep threat for QB Patrick Mahomes, but he is no Hill. WR Juju Smith-Schuster is also added to the Chiefs and rookie WR Skyy Moore (Western Michigan) could make an impact for Mahomes. The only other addition on Offense of note is RB Ronald Jones who joins Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon in the backfield. The Chiefs do need to run the ball more in 2022. On D, S Tyrann Mathieu (NO) is out, and Justin Reed from HOU is in. Rookies DE George Karlaftis (Purdue) and CB Trent McDuffie (Washington) will jump in immediately to get some fresh legs on that D.
  • Outlook – The Chiefs played with fire all year, and should have lost to BUF in the divisional round only to fall to CIN at home in the AFC Title game. As good as Mahomes is, I think the decline of this team as it is currently constituted has already begun. Yes, they will make the playoffs, but they will not win the Super Bowl (or even get there).
  • Record – 11-6

Las Vegas Raiders (+3300 SB, +1800 AFC, +575 AFC West)

Davante Adams Is On the Strip
  • Coaching – New HC Josh McDaniels takes over for the disgraced Jon Gruden, even though Interim Coach Rich Bisaccia coached well down the stretch. OC Mick Lombardi follows McDaniels from NE where he was the WR Coach. DC Patrick Graham comes from the Giants with some far back history in NE, as well. So, you can expect a similar scheme to the Belichick teams in NE.
  • Personnel – On Offense, McDaniels got a gift in the trade from GB for WR Davante Adams who played with QB Derek Carr in college. WR Mack Hollins was also signed from MIA. So, Carr is getting quality weapons to go along with his favorite target TE Darren Waller. On D, there was plenty of action in free agency – DE Chandler Jones comes aboard from AZ and CB Rock Ya-Sin should help the back end.
  • Outlook – The Raiders have some good players for sure. Their D was not great in 2021, so perhaps Chandler and Ya-Sin help, but they will need the other players to be better in this pass happy division. I think Derek Carr is a solid QB, but he is the worst in the division, plus I’m not sure McDaniels is a good coach yet. I think they will hover around .500 and be right in the mix for a playoff spot again. I see them with 3 other teams like TEN, MIA, and DEN. Currently, I have them just missing out.
  • Record – 10-7

Denver Broncos (+2200 SB, +1200 AFC, +260 AFC West)

Can Russell Bring The Broncos Back?
  • Coaching – New HC Nathaniel Hackett takes over for Vic Fangio. Hackett came from GB, and is offensive minded. His OC is Justin Outten who comes with Hackett from GB (TE Coach). At DC, Ejiro Evero is the former Rams DB Coach, so from a solid coaching tree. Not sure his approach. This relatively inexperienced coaching staff will have to come up to speed quickly in the AFC West.
  • Personnel – The Offense got the biggest boost with the trade for QB Russell Wilson from SEA. The move sent over players, but WRs Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy must be happy. Hopefully, 2nd year RB Javonte Williams will get more carries than Melvin Gordon. On D, the Broncos tried to get better on each level picking up OLB Randy Gregory (DAL), DT DJ Jones (SF) and CB K’Waun Williams (SF).
  • Outlook – The Broncos are a sexy pick for the AFC and Super Bowl, but I’m not sure Russell is worth the billing. He has the weapons, but he is older now to use the legs like he did when he first came in the league. The new coaching staff inside a loaded division all points to an up and down season. They will be right around .500 like the Raiders, and I see them being the odd team out in the division.
  • Record – 9-8

Prediction – The Chargers win this hotly contested division with up to 3 teams coming from this one in the AFC playoffs.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.