On to the South of the AFC, perhaps the least interesting division in football, but still a couple of good teams to watch.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (+2200 SB, +1200 AFC, -130 AFC South)
- Coaching – HC Frank Reich comes back again with OC Marcus Brady returning. However, the DC is new with Gus Bradley coming over from Las Vegas to replace Matt Eberflus (new HC of CHI). The Colts staff were humming mid-season and the wheels fell off at the end of the season to miss the playoffs.
- Personnel – On O, another QB change in IND – the 3rd year in a row with a different QB. In 2021, Carson Wentz (and his huge mistakes) have been moved to WAS, while Matt Ryan comes over from ATL. Ryan is a low mistake QB with limited upside, but he certainly can still play at a high level. The only other change is WR TY Hilton is not on the roster with Alec Pierce, rookie from Cincinnati, will be the 3rd WR. On D, the Colts traded for DE Yannick Ngakoue who actually was signed by the Raiders, but he should help the pass rush, as well as the addition of former NE CB standout – Stephon Gilmore. S Nick Cross was also added in the draft out of Maryland to help this back end compete agains the elite passing offenses in the AFC.
- Outlook – The Colts were a contender after 12 weeks, and then lost their final 2 games (including to JAC) to miss out on the playoffs. So, they have the talent, and with Matt Ryan, they should be in most games. The question to me is whether RB Jonathan Taylor who was a beast in 2021 will stay healthy given the amount of work he had last year. The Colts should take this division, but then again, I thought they would win last year, too.
- Record – 12-5
Tennessee Titans (+4000 SB, +2000 AFC, +175 AFC South)
- Coaching – HC Mike Vrabel has been a great coach for TEN. He brings a toughness and fire to the team that resonates through the whole organization. Despite the Derrick Henry injury in 2021, his team took the division. The entire staff returns as OC Todd Downing and DC Shane Bowen are back. The coaching is not the issue with this team.
- Personnel – On Offense, WR Robert Woods was acquired via trade, as he is coming off an injury along with the acquisition of TE Austin Hooper from CLE to give quality targets in the void created by WR AJ Brown’s departure. WR Treylon Burks was drafted out of Arkansas to give a speed guy to the O. The D is really the same, and that is the unit that has to improve with the various draft picks over the past 5 years playing to potential.
- Outlook – The Titans have an identity, especially when Henry is healthy, but the end of his run is coming. QB Ryan Tannehill really cost them the win in the playoff last year, and I don’t think he can keep up with the other top AFC teams’ QBs. Perhaps, the drafting of Malik Willis of Liberty could be interesting for this team to put in some packages to get him on the field. TEN will be one of 3 teams vying for that final spot in the playoffs. I currently have them out, but they will be right there.
- Record – 10-7
Houston Texans (+30000 SB, +15000 AFC, +3300 AFC South)
- Coaching – HC Lovie Smith is back at the helm in the NFC again. He was brought in as the DC last year, and now he will try to make the Texans respectable. OC Pep Hamilton ascends from the QB Coach, and Lovie will call his own Defense without a DC. Look, it can’t be much worse.
- Personnel – On Offense, not a ton of hoopla here, RB Marlon Mack was signed from IND, and OG Kenyon Green was drafted out of Texas A&M, but the Offense needs QB Davis Mills to progress and become a real NFL QB. On Defense, DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo was signed from the Rams, and 3 drafted players: LB Christian Harris (Alabama), S Jalen Pitre (Baylor) and CB Derek Stingley (LSU) will all play right away. Lovie will need to get them to play great for this team to compete.
- Outlook – The Texans are in a bad spot. No real marquee players now, and with moving on from Deshaun Watson, which was such a distraction last year, perhaps they can actually rebuild this year. A goal would be to win more than 4 games like last year, but I trust them more than JAC.
- Record – 3-14
Jacksonville Jaguars (+12500 SB, +6600 AFC, +600 AFC South)
- Coaching – A crazy turn of events with HC Urban Meyer which got him out of there fast, and enter in former PHI HC Doug Pederson. I’m not a Pederson fan, but he is a huge upgrade over the toxic coach Meyer was. Pederson has hired Press Taylor as OC formerly with IND, and Mike Caldwell as DC formerly with TB as LB coach. Pederson’s main job is to develop QB Trevor Lawrence.
- Personnel – On O, WR Christian Kirk (AZ) was acquired in free agency along with highly decorated OG Brandon Schreff from WAS. JAC drafted C Luke Fortner from Kentucky to start at Center. In addition, other acquisitions include TE Evan Engram, perhaps he can return to glory, and the return of RB Travis Etienne from injury. On D, CB Darious Williams was signed from the Rams, and 2 rookies will step on at LB – Devin Lloyd (Utah) and Travon Walker (Georgia).
- Outlook – The goal for the 2022 season for Pederson and the Jags is to become respectable. The organization has been in shambles for several seasons now. The Urban Meyer fiasco along with this really young team has made for a back to back rebuild. I think they can be better, but that’s more like 5-6 wins. Looking at the schedule, I don’t see a lot of wins, though.
- Record – 2-15
One more AFC division to go.
Wegs