It’s that time of year again. NFL training camps are underway, and I’ll preview each division complete with personnel and coaching changes along with a record preview. We are only 4 weeks away from the start of the season.

Preview Format Overview

For each team, I will review the following:

  • Coaching – If there was a coaching change indicating the scheme difference from last year.
  • Key Personnel – Changes in the team itself along with injury status on key players.
  • Outlook – How I see the team’s prospect will be with range of outcomes.
  • Team Prediction – Win/Loss record along with Playoff prospects.

This series will consist of 8 Divisional Previews, then a final post for the Standings/Records of the entire league along with Playoff Predictions and Super Bowl Champ.

AFC East Preview

Our first division has had a ton of transition in the past 2 years. Once TB12 left in 2020, the division finally opened up for others to win. BUF has won the division the past 2 seasons, and they will be tough to unseat in 2022. However, with changes in MIA and another year of experience for NE without Brady, this will be a very competitive division.

Buffalo Bills (+600 to Win SB, +350 to Win AFC, -235 to Win AFC East)

Josh Allen for MVP
  • Coaching – HC Sean McDermott returns and he is a great coach, but he has lost his OC Brian Daboll to the Giants, so can the new OC Ken Dorsey (promoted from QB Coach) continue to allow QB Josh Allen to excel and put up points. That’s the main question. On D, DC Leslie Frazier returns, but let’s see if the D can recover after that playoff collapse in KC.
  • Key Personnel – BUF has been good on both sides of the ball the past 2 seasons, and they really return the bulk of their team. On Offense, the main departure is WR Cole Beasley, the safety valve, but Jamison Crowder takes that slot which may be an upgrade although Isaiah McKenzie is currently ahead of him on the depth chart. The ascension of WR Gabriel Davis will be essential to keep BUF in the Top 5 on Offense. Davis exploded in the AFC Divisional game, and all indications from camp show him to be primed to contribute a lot more than 2021. BUF also looked to address their lack of ground attack with rookie RB James Cook out of Georgia to play behind Devin Singletary. On Defense, BUF was solid in 2021, but we all know they have to stop high powered offenses. They signed DT Daquan Jones from CAR, which can slow the run, but they paid a lot to sign OLB Von Miller who played well in LA yet not sure his contract will be worth it here. The Bills did address their secondary breakdown with rookie CB Kaiir Elam (Florida) who is slated to start alongside Tre’Davious White who should return from his ACL injury by Week 3.
  • Outlook – The Bills have a Super Bowl ready team and are the Vegas favorite for both the AFC and to win it all. I do think if they beat the Chiefs in that playoff game, then they could have beaten the Rams. However, they have to continue to keep QB Josh Allen healthy. He played like the MVP over the back half of the 2021 season and playoffs. I think he will win the award in 2022. The Bills should win this division again.
  • Record – 14-3

New England Patriots (+5000 SB, +2800 AFC, +500 AFC East)

Mac Jones Is the Key to Patriots Success
  • Coaching – HC Bill Belichick enters his 23rd season at the helm. He has somehow outlasted what I thought was his would be predecessor in Josh McDaniel (who went to the Raiders). OC changed with McDaniel out, enter Matt Patricia – that’s right, the former DC for the Pats. So, that’s a little curious. Clearly Bill thinks he can call the Offense or employ the same principles McDaniel used to do. The DC is still Steve Belichick with Jerod Mayo together.
  • Key Personnel – NE needed to address WR, and they attempted to do so with DeVante Parker (from MIA), Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne need to play more consistently. NE did select WR Tyquan Thornton out of Baylor to also help. OG Cole Strange was drafted to bolster the line, which indicates additional commitment to the run game. Clearly, the success of the Pats rests on the arm of Mac Jones. He was solid in 2022, but I’m not sold he is a Champ Level QB. On Defense, not a lot of changes there. Dont’a Hightower left as a free agent (unsigned). A couple of defense back selections add depth to this solid unit, Jack Jones (AZ State) and Marcus Jones (Houston).
  • Outlook – The Patriots will be well coached, no doubt, but do they have enough to beat the talented Bills? I don’t think so. In fact, from a talent perspective, I think they are behind the Dolphins, but I trust Belichick to out-coach most teams. If Jones takes a good step forward, then they will make the playoffs. However, I think at some point the lack of weapons on offense will catch up to them in this modern NFL.
  • Record – 11-6

Miami Dolphins (+3500 SB, +1800 AFC, +425 AFC East)

Can Hill Do the Same in MIA?
  • Coaching – Major change in MIA with HC Brian Flores out, insert Mike McDaniel who comes from SF as their OC. The OC in MIA is now Frank Smith who was the Running Game Coordinator with the Chargers. DC Josh Boyer is the lone holdover from the Flores staff. Now, don’t underestimate the calamity with the Flores firing, who filed a lawsuit against the NFL, and on top of that, the franchise has been sanctioned for tampering with HC Sean Payton and even QB Tom Brady. All of the change and issues will impact the team. I don’t know McDaniel well, but we do know that he will run a play-action scheme, and with Smith clearly the run game will be central to try and assist Tua’s growth.
  • Key Personnel – Some big additions on Offense have gotten the MIA fans excited – WR Tyreek Hill was traded for and the RB room is infused with new guys: Chase Edmonds (AZ), Raheem Mostert (SF) and Sony Michel (LAR). OT Terron Armstead was also added in free agency from NO, so the Offense was a big priority in the off season. On D, the unit remains mostly unchanged. With the scheme the same, the D should be like last year.
  • Outlook – The Dolphins have a new face and fun pieces, but I’m not sold on Tua. Clearly, the Dolphins aren’t either as they pushed hard in 2021 for Deshaun Watson and even Brady from what I understand. Can Tua be successful? Yes, but the scheme will need to get him easy throws, and I think as good as Tyreek Hill was in KC, Tua is a major downgrade. I think they will have their moments, but a near .500 campaign looks likely again (which got Flores fired).
  • Record – 8-9

New York Jets (+8000 SB, +4500 AFC, +2000 AFC East)

Wilson Needs Major Improvement in 2022
  • Coaching – The Jets return their same staff as last year, which should provide stability. HC Robert Saleh was a fan favorite coming in, but in Year 2, he needs to move the Jets out of the 4-6 win range to be judged as successful. OC Mike LeFleur has to get QB Zach Wilson to play smarter. On D, DC Jeff Ulbrich’s group was dead last in Points Against – hurt by Wilson TOs, but still they will need to vasty improve.
  • Key Personnel – On Offense, WR Garrett Wilson from Ohio State was drafted to help boost the passing attack next to 2nd year man, Elijah Moore, who played well in 2021, but the talk of camp is rookie RB Breece Hall (Iowa State) who is more a prototypical back to get the ball early with Michael Carter on passing downs. TE CJ Uzomah comes over from CIN to give a veteran target to Wilson. On D, more rookies step in at DE Jermaine Johnson (FSU) and CB Sauce Gardner (Cincinnati), so a young infusion along a lot of vets.
  • Outlook – The Jets are the worst team in the division for a reason. They lack big talent on both sides of the ball. I’m not sold on Zach Wilson, plus his knee injury in the first pre-season game may keep him out of Week 1 or Week 2, and I think another lackluster campaign will have them selecting another QB in 2023. If he is able to make strides, then they could push for 7 wins. I just don’t see it in this division, even if my initial take is pretty harsh.
  • Record – 3-14

Prediction: The Bills win the AFC East.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.