The wildest 3 weeks is about to come to an end. It has been a really unpredictable tournament. However, 68 teams whittled down to just 4 as the regions fall away to let the last 4 squads do battle in New Orleans on Saturday.
Final Four Preview
The Teams
Villanova Wildcats: +500 (KP 9, Offense 9, Defense 18)
Villanova is a study in consistency. Coach Jay Wright, who early in his tenure struggled to get to the Final Four, has now reached the final weekend in 3 of the last 6 tournaments. Nova basketball is all about sharing the ball, fundamental defense and gritty guard play. The Wildcats’ path has been has not been too difficult. Their toughest game came against 5 Seed Houston in the Elite Eight where they were limited to under 30% shooting, however Nova shot 15 for 15 from the foul line and held the Cougars to under 30% shooting, as well. The main issue with Wright’s team is the loss of G Justin Moore, Nova’s 2nd leading scorer, who tore his Achilles tendon in the second half. Nova only really played 6 players with Moore, so someone will need step up to get to the Title Game. Plus, G Collin Gillespie is not playing at 100%, in the Houston game, he only had 6 points on 1 of 6 shooting. So, as much as I love Nova, I do not think they have enough horses in this one.
North Carolina Tar Heels: +550 (KP 16, Offense 18, Defense 39)
The Heels have completely turned their season around. Many thought UNC should not have been in the field in early February, as they had lost multiple games by large margins (15 or more) to top teams. However, first year Head Coach Hubert Davis stayed the course, and the win at Duke for the season finale (and Coach K’s final home game) catapulted the Carolina faithful to a new level. Since losing to Duke at home on 2/5, the Heels have won 12 of 14 games and most games are not close. Besides beating Duke badly in that game, UNC was up by 25 points to 1 Seed Baylor in the 2nd Round. Yes, they blew the lead, but the Heels prevailed in OT and without Brady Manek (15.2 PPG) after that questionable ejection. UNC has 4 main guys, but F Armando Bacot is a force inside and a great rebounder (he had 22 boards in the win over St. Peter’s), and if G Caleb Love gets hot, then no one can really stop him from deep. The ceiling for the Heels is the Title, and they really haven’t had a bad half in the tournament so far. Besides the meltdown against Baylor, UNC has been game against anyone.
Kansas Jayhawks: +200 (KP 4, Offense 7, Defense 17)
Kansas makes it back to the Final Four for the first time since 2018. Coach Bill Self’s squad is very talented, and they are a traditional Jayhawks squad with bigs and quality guards. In the tournament, Kansas had the easiest path to New Orleans with tougher games against 9 Creighton and 4 Providence, but KU was never really in jeopardy of getting beaten. Sure in the Elite Eight game, they trailed to 10 Seed Miami at the half, but they completely pummeled the Canes in the 2nd half. One thing is clear though, if All American G Ochai Agbaji (18.9 PPG) can play his best like he did on Sunday, then they can beat anyone of this Final Four. However, G Remy Martin has been carrying this team offensively before Sunday, so they could use all starters to fire on all cylinders.
Duke Blue Devils: +135 to Win the Title (KenPom 8, Offense 1, Defense 45)
Duke has won 4 games coming out of the stacked West Region. As the 2 Seed, they did have to face the lowest seeds possible except missing 1 Seed Gonzaga. For me, I was not sold on Duke before the tournament, but once I saw them trailing by 5 late to 7 Seed Michigan State in the 2nd Round, and they closed that game strong winning 85-76 losing the game on a 20-6 run. I saw a team that has the ability to flip a switch and play at a level that no other team can. Then, against the #1 Defense, 3 Seed Texas Tech, the Blue Devils shot 71% in the 2nd half to win a tough one. Finally, Duke dominated 4 Seed Arkansas to earn Coach K’s 13th Final Four appearance. Duke is the most talented team left in the Dance, but they will need to play enough Defense to slow down these other top teams. Led by the super talented, F Paolo Banchero (17.1 PPG, 7.7 Rebounds), but in the tournament, G Jeremy Roach has controlled tempo and creates so much for his teammates. With enough rim protection from C Mark Williams (2.9 Blocks/Game), Duke has been able to slow down teams enough to allow their offense to shine. Duke is the favorite to not only to win on Saturday, but to win it all for Coach K’s final game.
Saturday Match Ups – April 2nd
- Nova vs. Kansas (-4.5, Total 132.5) – Tip Off: 5:09 PM Central on TBS – As I wrote, I love Jay Wright, and he can coach circles around Bill Self of Kansas. However, I just don’t think the Wildcats have enough players to take out Kansas. So, the ML -200 is the easiest way to go with KU, however I would lay the -4.5 here. Kansas is big inside, and their perimeter D should be able to slow down Gillespie and company. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see Nova advance to Monday, and they are more battle tested than the Jayhawks. I just can’t see it happening. I also like the Under 132.5.
- UNC vs. Duke (-4, Total 150.5) – Tip Off: 7:49 PM Central on TBS – This is the game everyone wants. Duke-UNC who play at least twice a year in the ACC, but Saturday will mark their first time ever in the NCAA Tournament which is just remarkable. We know that the Heels can beat Duke. After Duke crushed the Heels in Chapel Hill on 2/5, UNC ruined Coach K’s last game in Cameron. Well, I do think these are the two teams playing the best in the tournament to date. Both teams have length inside and good guards. So, where is there an edge? I think that Duke’s ability to have 4 guys get their own shot on offense will really help in this one. Carolina, like Duke, has not been stellar defensively, but I think UNC’s reliance on the 3 may be their down fall. In a lot of Final Four games which are played in large arenas, teams tend to struggle to hit, especially early. So, it should be a classic game, no doubt, but Duke will win this one, just can they cover -4? I think they do. Smart people will be on the Under, but I’m going to go Over 150.5 as this should be a game laden with NBA talent.
Monday Potential Match Up – April 4th
- Kansas vs. Duke (Wegs Projected Line Duke -2.5, Total 145) – Tip Off: 8:20 PM Central on TBS – This match up is better on paper than Duke-Nova, but unless the Blue Devils wilt under the pressure like they did at Cameron or in the ACC Tournament Final, Duke should prevail. I don’t think Self or Coach K are stellar in-game coaches, but as good as Kansas is on D, Duke’s Offense should still get the shots they want. I may change my mind after watching on Saturday, but from what I’ve seen so far through 4 rounds, Duke is clearly the best basketball team entering New Orleans. It would be a storybook ending to an incredible career for Coach K, and I’m not picking Duke for that reason, although officiating should favor the Blue Devils. However, Duke’s NBA talent is better than the Kansas group, who would probably win if they face UNC.
There you go. Yet another March Madness in the books. Enjoy it while you can.
Wegs