College Hoops: March Madness Guide and NCAA Tournament Predictions

We are finally here. We have made it through the regular season and the Conference Tournaments to get to the Big Dance. It’s the most exciting 3 weeks in sports. I’ll layout the bracket Region by Region and give you some tips for your office pools.

March Madness Guide

For the novices out there, here are the basics.

4 Regions – East, West, South and Midwest with 16 teams in each. All teams are seeded from 1 to 16 – the best team in the region is the 1 Seed, the worst is the 16 Seed. The winner of each region needs to win 4 games to advance to the Final Four, which is held in New Orleans this year. It is a simple, win or go home format. No series, no do overs, if a team plays poorly and gets beat by the other team, they go home. So, technically every team has a chance to win it all. Regions do not necessarily play in the same location, as the NCAA attempts to have higher seeds play closer to home whenever possible, and the venues in the opening weekend are not the same as the second weekend.

Now, a few years ago, there were more conferences due to realignment, so there are actually 68 teams that have qualified for the tournament. So, 8 teams play an extra game to qualify for the main 64 team draw, called The First Four on Tuesday, 3/15 or Wednesday, 3/16. The 8 teams play in Dayton OH, and the NCAA Committee selects 4 – 16 Seed teams to play for 2 spots – those teams are the so called “Low” Majors who have won their conference tournament, but are not as good as the other conferences. The other 4 teams in Dayton are the last 4 At Large teams to qualify for the Big Dance. These teams will be either an 11 or 12 Seed. Once the team wins their First Four game, then they travel to the regional pod. Last year, the UCLA Bruins played in the First Four games in Dayton and went all the way to the Final Four, which is rare.

Once the First Four takes place, the main draw starts on Thursday, 3/17 or Friday, 3/18 depending on the venue the teams are playing in. Winners on Thursday and Friday will play again 2 days later, so the field goes from 68 on Tuesday, 3/15 to just 16 by Sunday, 3/20. 36 games in 5 days. So, it’s a lot of basketball. Not all games are memorable, but in general, the big upsets happen over this span. An upset is when a lower seed like a 13 seed beats a higher seed like a 4 seed.

After Sunday, there is a break, and the Sweet 16, as it is known starts on Thursday, 3/24 or Friday, 3/25 in their regional location together. Winners will play 2 days later in the Elite 8 for the Regional Final to qualify for the Final Four.

Then, Saturday, April 2nd is the Final Four, and the Championship Game is held on Monday, 4/4. Followed by the now cherished, One Shining Moment highlight package.

Regional Breakdown

West Region – San Francisco, CA

Top Teams:

• 1 (Seed) – Gonzaga (or Zags) – KenPom Overall 1, Offense 7, Defense 8 – The Zags are the #1 Team in the Nation for a reason with 2 great inside players in C Drew Timme who was on last year’s team and super frosh, F Chet Holmgren – a slick 7 footer with guard skills. The guards are good, sure, but the bigs make this team go.
• 2 – Duke – KP 12, O 7, D 44 – Paolo Banchero is a 6’10” F who has a great handle. Duke may be the most talented team in the country, and with Coach K in his last NCAA Tournament, maybe the Blue Devils can pull it off.
• 3 – Texas Tech – KP 9, O 65, D 1– Coach Mark Adams has picked up right where Coach Beard left off. Tech boasts the #1 Defense in the field, and Defense does win championships.
• 4 – Arkansas KP 20, O 40, D 16– The Razorbacks went on a tear in the SEC with double digit wins in February, but they did get beat by Texas A&M in the SEC Tourney. JD Notae at PG is a scorer and Jaylin Williams at F is a great defender and energy player for Coach Musselman.

Dangerous Lower Seeds:

• 5 – UConn – KP 18, O 21, D 35 – Hardly a lower seed, but the 5 Seed is a tough position in any region, as the traditional 5-12 match up produces a lot of upsets. UConn has good guards, and that is what wins in March. If Arkansas gets knocked off on Thursday, then UConn will be in the Sweet 16.
• 9 – Memphis KP 28, O 50, D 31 – The Tigers have won 10 of 12 games down the stretch. They have size and play great defense. If they get past a tough 8 Boise State team, then they can push the Zags on Saturday.
• 13 – Vermont KP 59, O 44, D 74 – The Catamounts have destroyed the American East all season. They do face the Razorbacks, which is a bit unfortunate, but they will play well on Thursday.

West Overview: I do not see a lot of upsets in this region in Round 1. Vermont is possible. If 11 Rutgers advances out of Dayton, then they can beat 6 Alabama. Chalk will hold more here than other regions. It is a pretty tough region for the Zags to advance. Memphis will give them a game and Arkansas in the Sweet 16 is not a given. I see Texas Tech taking out Duke in this region, but I do not know if they have enough firepower to win this region. I would stick with the Zags in this one, but the Committee did them no favors here.

East Region – Philadelphia, PA

Top Seeds:

• 1 – Baylor – KP 5, O 9, D 14 – The Defending Champs will be ready for the tournament. They went out early in the Big 12 Tourney, which may be a benefit to their injured players. The Baylor guards are excellent – Adam Flagler and James Akinjo can dominate on both ends.
• 2 – Kentucky – KP 3, O 4, D 27 – The Wildcats are back in the mix for a Title, and potential Player of the Year, Oscar Tsiebwe, is a rebounding machine. They are the best 2 Seed in my opinion.
• 3 – Purdue – KP 14, O 3, D 100 – Despite their size, Zach Eddy is 7’4″ and Trevion Williams is nearly 7′, their D is not good. That makes them vulnerable to teams that can handle their size.
• 4 – UCLA – KP 8, O 15, D 12 – The Bruins made their magical run last March behind G Johnny Juzang and the rest of the team’s clutch shooting. Can they do it again? Not entirely sure.

Dangerous Lower Seeds:

• 7 – Murray State – KP 27, O 35, D 40 – The Racers are a really good basketball team. F Tevin Brown is super talented, and this team pummeled the OVC this year. If they get past a good Dons team, then that Kentucky game is going to be fun to watch on Saturday.
• 11 – Virginia Tech – KP 23, O 18, D 55 – I’m down on the ACC this year, but VA Tech has had good metrics all year. They were able to run the table in the ACC Tourney to qualify, and I like them to keep it rolling. 6 Texas can defend, but they have not been consistent. This team can make the Sweet 16.
• 12 – Indiana – KP 36, O 91, D 21 – The Hoosiers needed a big run in the Big Ten Tourney to even make the First Four, and 12 Wyoming is going to be another tough test. However, Indiana has an elite defense, and their size is a problem if they stay out of foul trouble. They can definitely beat 5 St. Mary’s if they make it out of Dayton.

East Overview: I do see first round upsets in this region. VA Tech, Indiana, and I wouldn’t sleep on 13 Akron, since the MAC always produces tough teams in the Tournament. I do think Baylor and Kentucky are on a collision course. If Kentucky can get past Murray State, then it’s them in the Elite 8, and to me on to the Final Four. It’s very hard to repeat in the NCAA Tournament, and as good as Baylor is, I still don’t trust their size against the Kentucky front line. I like Kentucky to take this region.

South Region – San Antonio, TX

Top Seeds

• 1 – Arizona – KP 2, O 5, D 20 – The Wildcats have a former Zags’ assistant at the helm in Tommy Lloyd, and he has a team. They are the 2nd most talented team in the country, and I think they are better coached than Duke.
• 2 – Villanova – KP 11, O 8, D 29 – The other Wildcats are an older bunch led by G Collin Gillespie. They were able to win the Big East Tourney, and they should be a tough out, but I’m not sure they are a real 2 Seed in this field.
• 3 – Tennessee – KP 7, O 36, D 3 – What do the Vols have to do to get respect? They won the SEC Tourney – the toughest league in the country and get a 3 Seed? 14 Longwood is making a tourney debut, so that may not be pretty and then the winner of CSU-Michigan after that. I see the Vols in the Sweet 16 here minimum.
• 4 – Illinois – KP 17, O 23, D 30 – My local team here, with C Kofi Cockburn and some great small, left handed guards in Plummer and Frazier, but this team struggles late in games. They are vulnerable.

Dangerous Lower Seeds:

• 9 – TCU – KP 38, O 80, D 24 – The Horned Frogs are nasty on D, and they have been playing really good lately, so I think they will be a tougher match for Arizona than 8 Seton Hall.
• 10 – Loyola-Chicago – KP 24, O 42, D 22 – The Ramblers are now a tournament darling yet again after making the Sweet 16 last year, and despite a coaching change bring better metrics than most teams. 7 Ohio State needs to play really well to beat them.
• 12 – UAB – KP 46, O 28, D 89 – The Blazers rolled through the C-USA Tourney, and they have the guy with the best name in the Field – G Jordan “Jelly” Walker – who can flat out score even at 5’10”. 5 Houston better be able to score because the Blazers are ready.
• 13 – Chattanooga – KP 72, O 58, D 95 – The Mocs are a really good team out of the SoCon. Illinois better not play around because this team can bring it.

South Overview: I see a lot of upsets here. We could have up to 5 of 8 of the lower seeds to advance to the weekend. I do think Loyola, UAB and Chattanooga get the wins, not to mention 11 Michigan over my alma mater, 6 Colorado State. So, this should be a fun region to watch early. In the second weekend, Arizona is going to show how good they are. Tennessee should get to the Elite 8, but Arizona will head to New Orleans.

Midwest Region – Chicago, IL

Top Seeds:

• 1 – Kansas – KP 6, O 6, D 29 – The Jayhawks are the top team here, but it will not be easy to advance. G Ochai Agbaji is a Player of the Year candidate and with the bigs they have, they will be tough.
• 2 – Auburn – KP 10, O 24, D 8 – The Tigers have good metrics and a great record, but I do not trust them. I saw them play down to their competition a lot and I was not surprised they got bounced early in the SEC Tourney. F Jabari Smith is a stud, but he is young.
• 3 – Wisconsin – KP 34, O 49, D 38 – G Johnny Davis is very important to this team’s success. The Badgers tied for the regular season title, but they lost in their first game of the Big Ten Tourney. Davis was taken out by the Indiana D in that one, and he was clearly nursing an ankle injury – it showed. I think they can get bounced Friday.
• 4 – Providence – KP 49, O 31, D 79 – The Friars are a mystery. They didn’t lose a lot, but they played close games all year. That may mean clutch, but they can get bounced against teams that don’t play around. I think they are a pretender.

Dangerous Lower Seeds:

• 5 – Iowa – KP 13, O 2, D 77 – The Hawkeyes not only won the Big Ten Tournament, but they closed the regular season on fire. F Keegan Murray is possibly the best player in the country. He can score and defend. The rest of the squad can shoot the lights out, and their D improved a ton over time. I like them a lot.
• 8 San Diego State – KP 22, O 157, D 2 – The Aztecs are 2nd in Defense, and they will hold you down. They draw 9 Creighton in the opening round, but Kansas will need to play their best to beat this team on Saturday.
• 13- South Dakota State – KP 71, O 12, D 220 – The Jackrabbits can score. They have the ability to put up 100 points in any game with several shooters. I like them in the upset over Providence.

Midwest Overview: Besides South Dakota State, I’m not feeling a ton of early upsets here. I think this region is the easiest path for the top teams, and I mean – 1 Kansas, 2 Auburn and 5 Iowa. These are the top squads to me. Auburn should walk into the Elite 8, which I don’t love, but there is not a lot of quality teams in that part of the bracket. The game of the Region will be the Sweet 16 match between 1 Kansas and 5 Iowa. Winner of this game will take the Region. That game is a coin flip at this point to me. For the article, I’ll say Iowa, but I may switch that pick 5 times before Thursday.

Final Four – New Orleans, LA

1 Zags vs. 2 Kentucky – What a great match up of a classic Blue Blood versus a new school one. The Zags have been really close to the Title. This team seems to be great, but I really don’t like this match for them. However, I think the Zags will be able to simply outscore Kentucky in that game. Zags play for yet another title.

1 Arizona vs. 5 Iowa – This should be a high scoring game. There are at least 3 NBA players on the floor if this happens. However, I think the depth and frontline for Arizona will win out, as the Wildcats love to run and Iowa may actually have to play slower to win. Murray may be the best player on the floor, but the length of Arizona will bother him enough to get the win.

1 Zags vs. 1 Arizona – West Coast Basketball is back, baby. Last year, you had UCLA and the Zags in the Final Four, and this time you have 2 West Coast teams competing for the ultimate prize. Will I root for the Zags and Coach Mark Few, of course, but Arizona has more juice to me. I like them to cut down the nets and the Zags will have to wait until next year.

Let the Madness Begin!

Wegs