College Hoops: The Countdown Is On

We’ve only got a week until March and with conference battles heating up, it is time for teams to make their resumes better.

KenPom Review – Top 20

1. Zags (23-2) – The Zags continue to roll through the WCC. Maybe they will struggle against the other top teams this week, but not likely.
2. Kentucky (22-5) – The Cats are tough yet again, but they showed vulnerability last week will take on Arkansas this week.
3. Arizona (24-2) – Great team, and probably flying under the radar for most.
4. Baylor (23-5) – This team better get healthy or they could get upset in the first weekend.
5. Kansas (23-4) – Jayhawks are back to excellent, but they will get tested this week.
6. Auburn (24-3) – The Tigers have been getting pushed lately, so not sure I’m sold on them.
7. Houston (22-4) – Another good team, but probably should have lost against a not good Wichita State team Sunday.
8. Duke (23-4) – Not a lot of resistance this year in the ACC, so hard to judge them yet.
9. UCLA (20-5) – The Bruins are really good, but they have to contend with Arizona in PAC 12.
10. Texas Tech (22-6) – Apparently Tech owns both Lubbock and Austin, as they beat Texas to sweep the season series.
11. Nova (21-7) – Big loss at UConn after beating Providence makes it hard for them to move up the seeding.
12. Tennessee (20-7) – Great D will win a few tournament games for sure.
13. Purdue (24-4) – Huge team that needs to guard better – 115th in Nation, but can score at will (#1).
14. Texas (19-8) – See Texas Tech.
15. Illinois (19-7) – It’s not just Kofi. Guards came through at Sparty this weekend.
16. Iowa (19-8) – Complete dismantling of Sparty after a big win at Ohio State make them firing on all cylinders.
17. LSU (19-8) – Sneaky team, as they struggle to score, but great on D (3rd).
18. UConn (20-7) – Solid team and showed me something over Nova.
19. Arkansas (22-6) – My favorite team on this list. I love Coach Musselman, and his team is white hot – winning 12 of last 13 games.
20. Alabama (18-10) – Not going the right direction with loss at Kentucky and barely escaping Vandy with a win, but did beat Arkansas in that aforementioned stretch.

Bubble Watch

Large Conference Teams

ACC: UNC (20-8, KP 43, Net 42) – Heels are still hanging around straddling the Bubble, need some wins down the stretch – this week at NC State and home vs. Syracuse. VA Tech (16-11, KP 33, Net 41) – Poor record has them out, but wins at GA Tech and Miami would help a lot.

Big 12: Iowa State (18-9, KP 29, Net 35) – They are in the Field, but that can change quickly. Oklahoma (14-14, KP 40, Net 45) – On the outside looking in, so needs a good week with big win at OK State in Stillwater on Saturday.

Big East: Creighton (18-8, KP 63, Net 62) – They keep winning, so they should be in, but their numbers do need to improve. If they beat St. Johns and Providence on the road this week, then we can talk.

Big Ten: Michigan (14-11, KP 32, Net 34) – The loss at Wisconsin cost them a loss and Coach Howard’s punch cost him his regular season. Maybe the Wolverines can rally. Rutgers (16-10, KP 73, Net 80) – This team keeps winning at home, so they are in the mix on the outside pushing in. These teams face off on Wednesday in Ann Arbor.

SEC: Florida (17-11, KP 50, Net 49) – Gators beat Auburn which vaulted them in, but missed a shot over Arkansas – still easier road battles at Georgia and Vandy will improve ratings. Mississippi State (16-11, KP 38, Net 47) – Good metrics, but poor record. If they finish strong they can get in, games at South Carolina and home vs. Vandy should help.

PAC 12: Oregon (17-10, KP 72, Net 63) – They have to beat one of the top teams – USC, UCLA or Arizona at some point or they won’t get in. They take on USC on Saturday night.

Other Teams to Watch:

• San Diego State (17-7, KP 23, Net 32) – This team is catching fire at the right time. Metrics are excellent, and they have won 5 straight before losing in the last second at Boise State Tuesday night – game at Wyoming on Monday will be key.
• SMU (19-6, KP 55, Net 46) – Big win over AAC rival Memphis which to me gets them in, but plenty of games to play. Tulsa mid-week is a warm up for the big game at Houston on Sunday.
• Memphis (15-9, KP 42, Net 44) – Loss to SMU knocks them out for now. Gotta get wins at home over Temple and Wichita State.
• Belmont (24-5, KP 72, Net 63) – Needs to win against Murray State this week to stay in At Large picture.
• BYU (19-9, KP 52, Net 54) – I’m not sold, but still on Lunardi and Palm’s list. With 2 remaining games at home against lower opponents – Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine, I don’t think it helps a lot.

Marquee Games:

Last Week:

• Texas Tech showed out again beating the defending champs, 83-73.
• St. Mary’s took out the Dons, 69-64.
• Kentucky big boy’d the Crimson Tide, 90-81.
• Nova took out UConn as Coach Danny Hurley got tossed in the 1st half,

This Week:

• Belmont at Murray State – Thursday, 2/24 at 8 PM Central (ESPNU) – The Racers are ranked 19th, and they should be an At Large team even without the Ohio Valley Crown, but the Belmont Bruins never say die. I expect the Racers to prevail here, but should be a fun one.
• Kentucky at Arkansas – Saturday, 2/26 at 1 PM Central (CBS) – Something has to give here. The Wildcats are excellent at home, but Arkansas is running wild in the SEC. I’ll be pulling for the Razorbacks in this one, but UK should take them down.
• Auburn at Tennessee – Saturday, 2/26 at 3 PM Central – Another SEC classic here, and I like the Vols to slow Auburn down, despite the potential #1 Pick Jabari Smith.
• Kansas at Baylor – Saturday, 2/26 at 7 PM Central (ESPN) – The Big 12 will be decided right here. KU can win it out right with the win essentially, but Baylor has their number lately. Problem is the Bears’ injuries have slowed them a lot. Jayhawks will prevail.

Let’s do this!!

Wegs