With the Super Bowl over (no recap needed on that one), it’s finally time to turn to College Basketball with only 4 weeks until the Big Dance begins. So, we need to start looking at the field and knowing who we should be focused on come March.
College Hoops Preview
Wegs, the season started in November, didn’t it? That’s right it did, but until the NFL turns the corner, our eyes don’t focus on the College Hoops. Sure, I’ve been tracking teams for a month, but now with better focus, we have just under 4 weeks to get to Selection Sunday. I’ll outline my approach to the season, and hopefully you can learn more than your officemates come Bracket time.
Each Week, I’m going to go over the Top Teams to watch. My main source for information is not the Rankings or the Net Ratings, but the Bible for all College Hoopheads – Kenpom.com.
What is Ken Pom? Well, Ken Pomeroy has long been the guru of College Hoops statistics. He digs into not only Offensive and Defensive Efficiency which are my main metrics I look at to determine winners, but also luck, and Strength of Schedule. NCAA Champions in College Basketball do not come out of nowhere. The best teams usually at least contend and most Champs come from no lower than the Top 15 and usually are Top 10 on Offense and Defense.
So, each week I will review the movement in the Top 20 in KenPom and look at those teams who are “Overrated” per Ken Pom versus “Underrated.” The goal is to ignore the AP Rankings and eventually the Seeds in the Tournament to pick the best teams. It’s not a foolproof method, but I’m about 80% in picking the Champ over the past 10 years using this method. Take that however you’d like. I like to win money in March.
The Bubble Watch
Besides looking at the top of the heap, I will dig into the teams on the Bubble, which is a little over used these days. In reality, it is a lot easier to determine who will make the Field of 68 nowadays, however it is fun to watch teams at this stage of the season to see if they can get hot and make a run. Best example in recent years is last year with both UCLA and Oregon State. UCLA went from a First Four team to the Final Four – so that’s incredible and only done one other time, but Oregon State literally ran the table in the PAC 12 Tourney and deep in the NCAA Tournament.
Finally, each week, I’ll look at both Marquee Match Ups and highlight a Mid-Major/Small Conference match up of note, so you are not completely clueless on those teams that could pull off that every popular First Round Upset the opening weekend (when I’ll be in Vegas again – Ha!).
Ken Pom Review
- Gonzaga – The Zags are a Tournament Darling and now have reached the final game twice in the past few years, but still that elusive title is hanging over them. They have another stacked group, and Coach Mark Few will have the deep once again with the 2nd best Offense and 7th best D.
- Arizona – It is good to see the Wildcats back in contention. Their new coach, Tommy Lloyd, is a former Zags’ Assistant, and he has a very talented team. AZ is 9th on Offense and 5th on D. That makes them a real contender.
- Kentucky – Coach Cal has another real contender for the first time in a bit. He has finally found a blend of transfers and young guns to compete at the highest level – 4th on O, 12th on D.
- Baylor – The Defending Champs are right there again, but with some injuries here in January, they haven’t played as well of late. They still have great guards – 8th on O, 13th on D.
- Auburn – The Tigers were #1 for a bit, and they will push Kentucky yet again in the SEC. Their metrics are excellent, but we will see come March – 16th on O, 8th on D.
- Kansas – Another Blue Blood ready for battle here. They have a classic KU team with a couple of athletic bigs and an All American guard. Plus, Coach Bill Self doesn’t look like he is going to collapse on the sideline from the FBI investigation stress anymore – 3rd on O, 37th on D.
- Duke – It’s like the early 2000s again here as in Coach K’s final year, he has another All Star team. However the ACC is really down, so not sure they will be battle tested for March – 10th on O, 18th on D.
- Houston – Can the Cougars go to back to back Final Fours? Not sure with injuries to their top guard, but Coach Kelvin Sampson has guys who play really hard. Offense 11, Defense 16.
- Nova – Coach Jay Wright has a good team, but can they play with bigger, physical teams of the Big 12 and Big Ten – not sure yet. 6 on O, 25 on D.
- Tennessee – The Vols are really good again after a year out of the spotlight. They are one of the elite Defenses in the nation (6th) with a solid Offense at 30th.
- Purdue – The first Big Ten team with 2 All American quality big men, but their D isn’t great – 1 on Offense, 116 on Defense.
- UCLA – The Bruins return the entire Final Four team, but were they just playing at another level? Not sure yet, great guards help this team for sure, though – 18th on O, 15th on D.
- Texas Tech – The Red Raiders lost Coach Beard to Texas, but Mark Adams stayed on and has reloaded this team with Dudes! They play great D and will be as physical as anyone in the country – 57th on O, 3rd on D.
- Texas – Speaking of Coach Chris Beard, he immediately has worked to reform the Longhorns in his style, and they can D up (10th) with a passable Offense at 38th.
- Illinois – C Kofi Cockburn is a stud with good guard play, but they play around a lot despite leading the Big Ten. Let’s see if they can close out games better by the Big Dance – 23rd on O, 22nd on D.
- LSU – The Tigers have really changed the way they play over the years. Now the #1 Defense in the nation, but they struggle to score now at 118th.
- Iowa – Maybe if LSU and Iowa combined forces they could win it all, as the Hawkeyes yet again focus on one end of the court – 5th on Offense, but 117th on Defense.
- Alabama – The Crimson Tide are not just a football school, as Coach Nate Oates has another really good team this year. 14th on Offense and 66th on D.
- UConn – Coach Danny Hurley has turned the Huskies back into a quality program with great guards. 27th on O, 29th on D.
- Ohio State – The Buckeyes have a Player of the Year candidate in EJ Liddell, but they struggle to defend – 7th on O, 106th on D.
There are your current Top 20 teams. I do like other teams outside of this group, but I think the Champ will come out of the Top 15 or even 7 this year given the field.
Bubble Watch
I’ll go into more detail next week on how to truly evaluate the Bubble, but for now, let’s look at teams that are firmly on the Bubble as of this week.
Large Conference Teams:
ACC: UNC – The Heels can’t beat good teams; Miami – Good record but not great wins; VA Tech – On a streak now, but the ACC strength is hurting their resume.
Big 12: Oklahoma – Coach Porter Moser has a tough squad in his first year coming from Loyola but it’s hard to win in the league; Iowa State – In the field, but their record isn’t great and need more quality wins.
Big Ten: Michigan – Terrible record so far and will need to close strong to get a bid; Rutgers – A team right on the verge with great home wins, would be good to get some road wins to match.
SEC: Mississippi State – Tough to get road wins in the league, but they need them; Florida – Usually an auto-bid, but they have struggled all year long.
Big East: Creighton – Another team with many bids, but they are a loss away being on the wrong side of the Bubble.
PAC 12 – Oregon – They are currently In, but they are more like the 4th or 5th best team in the league; Washington State – A really good D, but they need wins over the big boys to earn that spot.
Other Teams to Watch:
- San Diego State – Aztecs suddenly have a lot of competition in the Mountain West
- Memphis – The Tigers got a big win over Houston and need more wins
- SMU – Great record, but not enough to get an secured bid
- BYU – The West Coast Conference is suddenly really good with Zags, Gaels and Dons, so a 4th bid may be a stretch.
- Belmont – Another team that usually can win the Ohio Valley, but Murray State is on another level.
Marquee Games This Week:
- Baylor at Texas Tech – Wednesday, 2/16 at 9 PM Central on ESPN 2 – Huge battle in the Big 12, as the conference’s Top D takes on those Baylor guards in Lubbock. Go Red Raiders!
- U San Francisco at St. Mary’s – Thursday, 2/17 at 9 PM Central – WCC 2nd place battle here, and a win for the Dons would go a long way to solidify their Tournament resume. I like the Dons in this one.
- Alabama at Kentucky – Saturday, 2/19 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – The Wildcats are big and strong, while the Crimson Tide like to shoot the rock. Should be a nice contrast of styles, but Kentucky will smash.
- Nova at UConn – Tuesday, 2/22 at 7 PM Central – The Huskies need to have a statement win the Big East annual top dog. UConn will take this one.
Alright, get into some games and enjoy.
Wegs