It’s time for the big game. The one we will all remember come next year.
Super Bowl Preview
The Teams
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are the favorite in this one (-4), and for many, they were a Super Bowl favorite since the trade for QB Matthew Stafford. In my mind, in Week 3, when they dismantled the defending champs (Tampa) that showed their ceiling. At his best, Stafford can throw the ball with the best in the league, and his marriage to the leagues best WR Cooper Kupp who had one of the best seasons ever by a WR, and you have greatness. However, as the season wore on the reason Stafford had not won a playoff game before this year reared its ugly head, as he threw INT after INT in the 2nd half of the season. Still, the Rams have put all their chips on the table this year as they acquired both OLB Von Miller on Defense and WR Odell Beckham Jr. on Offense (once Robert Woods was lost for the season). Those 2 moves indicated that the Rams were going to go all or nothing this year. Not unlike the Bucs last year, the new acquisitions took time to gel, and as Stafford has his woes, the Rams D also was not at its best, even with the All World Aaron Donald, Miller and CB Jalen Ramsey on the field together.
However, after losing the 49ers in Week 18 to allow them in the playoffs, the Rams have flipped the proverbial script. A crushing win over division rival Arizona was just a taste, then a huge lead in Tampa 27-3 only to have to hang on for their lives after nearing giving the game away and finally a tough battle against SF again to earn Head Coach Sean McVay’s 2nd Super Bowl appearance. From my view, the switch came in 2 forms: 1) Stafford has minimized his mistakes – yes, he did his best to give away the NFC Championship Game late, but he has been completing an incredibly high percentage of his passes against very good defenses in TB and SF, especially on 3rd down. So, he has turned up his game in the playoffs and now has 3 more wins in the playoffs than he started the season with. 2) The Rams D is finally playing to their potential. Despite some injuries in the secondary with S Taylor Rapp (by signing Eric Weddle), the Rams front 4 have crushed their opponents in the 3 games. The constant pressure on passers and more importantly shutting down the run has given the Rams control of each game so far. Even when down to the 49ers 17-7, the yardage was not substantial and opponent 3rd down conversion rate is terrible. That’s a recipe for a Title.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were not supposed to be here yet. Predicted by Vegas with as low as 5 wins on the season, the young Bengals under HC Zac Taylor have defied the odds. 2nd Year QB Joe Burrow has been a driving force behind the turnaround for a team that finished dead last prior to his arrival. Teaming Burrow up with his LSU running mate, WR Ja’Marr Chase has been a genius move to most Draft pundits chagrin. Despite difficulties on the Offensive Line, Chase is the Offensive Rookie of the Year, whether he wins the award or not. His big play ability has rivaled the great Randy Moss in his rookie year, and that coming with a 2nd Year QB is unprecedented. Couple those two with other solid receiving threats in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and RB Joe Mixon, and you have yourself a top tier Offense. On Defense, the off season was about adding high quality veterans on the Defensive Line (DE Trey Hendrickson) and Secondary (Eli Apple and Chidobe Awuzie), and that unit performed very well all season. Unfortunately, the health of that line has deteriorated as the playoffs have continued.
In the Playoffs, the Bengals have continued the underdog role. The win over the Raiders was a benchmark win in CIN history to start this new era, but like Burrow has done his whole career – that one game was not enough. The win at TEN was not only unfathomable given that Burrow was sacked a record 9 times, but the Bengals capitalized on Titans’ turnovers and their gifted Kicker Evan McPherson came through time and time again for the win. Finally, down huge at KC in the AFC Championship game, 21-3, Burrow and the game never flinched scoring 21 unanswered points taking the 2 time defending AFC Champs to the brink and OT. As the Chiefs imploded, the Bengals seized yet another opportunity, this time going to their first Super Bowl since 1989 and destroying the paradigm of the AFC.
The Match Up
Look, I’ll be perfectly honest, this was not the match up I wanted to see. However, we get two teams that on paper are very close to one another. In fact, when you compare their regular season statistics, they are nearly mirror images of each other:
Yards Gained: CIN 361.5 Rams 372.1
Points Scored: CIN 27.1 Rams 27.1
Yards Against: CIN 350.8 Rams 344.9
Points Against: CIN 22.1 Rams 21.9
Point Differential: CIN 5.0 Rams 5.2
Turnover Margin: CIN 0 Rams 2
So, there is really not a lot of differences when you look at the numbers, which Metrics tell you to take the Dog in this one. However, I think when you look at the Playoff Run, you need to get real of how the teams are playing now.
CIN has only scored 5 TDs in the Playoffs and has given up 6. McPherson has been their most consistent scoring threat. CIN has rushed for just 83, 65 and 116 yards, which to me is where they need to be successful against that ferocious Rams front. As great as Burrow has been, he has been under constant pressure from lesser fronts.
Meanwhile, the Rams have turned it on in the playoffs. Stafford has thrown for 7 TD passes and rushed for another one. The Rams D has limited opponents to under 275 yards per game. Now, the Rams are not running the ball as effectively as they should, which may be something CIN can hang their hat on.
Super Bowl Predictions
So, as much as the Regular Season numbers push me to take the 4 points, I will not do that and lay the -4 with the Rams in this one (and the Straight Up Win – a best bet is Rams -190 ML), as much as it pains me to do so (I’m not big on teams mortgaging the future to win now, but I get it).
Also, given the numbers, I think the Under is the play here at 48.5. Sure both offenses have the fire power to put up a lot, but both HCs McVay and Taylor seem to go conservative in these big spots.
I have no doubt Burrow will play well, and I don’t think it will be his last time on this stage, but he will have to watch as Matthew Stafford brings home the first Super Bowl to the Rams as an LA franchise on Sunday.
Enjoy the game and the commercials.
Wegs