Maybe we didn’t have as wild of games as in the Divisional Round, but the Championship games were down to the wire yet again for 6 straight one possession, last second finishes.

Championship Sunday Review

  • Don’t Bet Against Burrow – Well, I mentioned it last week, no one but the Bengals and the their fans believed in them against the mighty Chiefs. When KC scored TDs on their first 3 possessions for a 21-3 lead behind QB Patrick Mahomes (220 yards, 3 TDs in the first half), it seemed like curtains for the Bengals. Yet, the Chiefs opened the door with an inexplicable play call at the end of the 1st half with 5 seconds to go and no timeouts missing a shot to enter the half at 24-10, instead, the score was 21-10 and got the ball to start the 2nd half. The Bengals mimicked what they did in Week 17 by switching the Defense and literally scratching and clawing their way to a 24-21 lead in the 4th Quarter (tying the largest comeback in an AFC Championship game). CIN’s QB Joe Burrow (250 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 25 timely yards rushing) was extraordinary in avoiding the KC pass rush and converting multiple near sacks into first downs. Plus the D was outstanding only allowing 2 first downs to KC until the final drive. However, the Chiefs moved the ball with ease on that drive and despite the Mahomes horrible performance in the second half (1.6 QBR rating vs. 98.0 in the first half) with 2nd and Goal from the Bengals 4 yard line with 1:26 to go and no CIN timeouts. Then, HC Andy Reid and Mahomes lost their minds. The first drop back on 2nd down, which to me was ill advised, resulted in a 5 yard loss on a sack by DE Sam Hubbard, but on 3rd and Goal from the 9, Mahomes ran around like he did in last year’s Super Bowl going backwards and even having Hubbard knock the ball out of his hand for a near fumble lost that would have ended the game. KC did recover and K Harrison Butker hit the 44 yard FG as time expired to force OT. In the OT after winning another coin flip, Mahomes nearly threw a Pick 6 on the first play, but did throw one on the 3rd play as S Von Bell came up with the deflected pass on the target to Tyreek Hill (who was held without a catch in the 2nd half and OT). Burrow calmly led his squad into FG territory to win the game, 27-24, and go back to the Super Bowl in just his second year. Incredible.
  • Rams Outlast SF – The NFC pitted the 2 NFC West rivals against each other yet again. The Rams blew an early chance with a Stafford INT (337 yards passing, 2 TDs and 1 INT) in the end zone, and when the 49ers were able to get a FG at the end of the half to take the lead 10-7 despite being dominated in many aspects, my pick and Futures ticket were looking pretty good. In the 2nd half, when the 49ers scored a TD on a pass to George Kittle (only his 2nd catch for 27 yards, 1 TD) to go up 17-7 with 2:04 left in the third, it was SF’s game to lose. However, the Rams answered with a 7 play, 75 yard drive to pull within 3 with Cooper Kupp’s 2nd TD (11 catches, 142 yards and 2 TDs). Then, SF had a short span that really cost them the game. After a couple of first downs, SF had the ball at the Rams’ 44 with a 2nd and 1 with 12:02 remaining in the game. A loss of one on 2nd down led to a big 3rd and 2. HC Kyle Shanahan went completely conservative and opted for a FB dive which got stuffed, and then after a 2nd dumb Sean McVay challenge of a potential fumble which left the Rams with 0 Timeouts for the game. Yet, Shanahan opted to punt after trying to draw the Rams offsides. The first play for the Rams, Stafford threw the ball directly to 49ers’ S Jaquiski Tartt who dropped the easy pick and probably the SF win. The Rams took advantage immediately with a long pass to WR Odell Beckham (9 catches, 113 yards) and a 15 yard targeting penalty. The Rams tied the game at 17 with 7:34 left. A quick 3 and out for SF set up the Rams next drive who converted on 2 third downs (11 of 18 on the game) allowing LA to take the lead 20-17 with 1:49 left. The 49ers had one last shot with QB Jimmy G (16-30, 232, 2 TDs, 1 INT, but 1 of last 6 for -3 yards) who promptly went incomplete, completion for -3 and a terrible flip of the ball while going down for the game sealing INT. Rams advance to their 2nd Super Bowl in 4 years, 20-17.

So, it is not the Super Bowl people were looking for, however both teams deserved to win from their play on Sunday. It’s been a rough couple of weeks for picks as all these games have been a coin flip. Through this weekend, playoff record is 6-5 Straight Up (0-2 this week), 6-5 ATS (1-1), and 5-6 (1-1) on Totals.

Early Super Bowl Takes

I will put together a more detailed Super Bowl Preview next week, but let’s dive into some quick facts on the opponents:

Bengals vs. Rams (-4.5, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 2/13 at 5:30 PM Central Time, Sofi Stadium in Inglewood, CA

  • 1st time two 4 Seeds have ever advanced to the Super Bowl
  • 2 first time Super Bowl QBs (Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford)

Rams Facts:

  • NFC West Champs, 12-5 Record (5-3 Home, 7-2 Road)
  • 3 Game Win Streak, Won 8 of last 9 games
  • Offense: 9th in Yards Gained, 7th in Scoring
  • Defense: 17th in Yard Against, 15th in Points Against
  • 2nd Straight Year a team, Rams will host the Super Bowl (Tampa Bay in 2020 Season)
  • Rams’ 5th Super Bowl appearance – last time was in 2018 season (loss to NE Patriots)
  • Rams’ Head Coach Sean McVay’s 2nd appearance
  • Rams only Super Bowl win was in the 1999 season (Kurt Warner QB)

Bengals Facts:

  • AFC North Champs, 10-7 Record (5-4 Home, 5-3 Road)
  • 3 Game Win Streak, Won 6 of last 7 games
  • Offense: 13th in Yards Gained, 7th in Scoring
  • Defense: 18th in Yards Against, 17th in Points Against
  • Bengals 3rd Super Bowl appearance – last time was in the 1988 season (loss to SF 49ers)
  • Bengals’ Head Coach Zac Taylor’s 1st appearance as a head coach (was on Rams’ staff in 2018 appearance as QB Coach)
  • Bengals’ record prior two seasons is an all time low for a Super Bowl participant (6-25-1)
  • Joe Burrow is attempting to be the 3rd QB (Joe Namath and Joe Montana) to win a National Championship and Super Bowl in his career, but Burrow would do it in just 2 actual years apart

My early lean is the Rams to win, but that line looks heavy at the moment. I’ll dig into the numbers, props and key match ups next week.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.