The NFL has us frothing at the mouth after 3 straight days of match ups this past weekend. Well, wait until this coming weekend, as these are all good games.

Wild Card Weekend Recap

Bills Play A Perfect Game
  • Bengals Hold On – Make no mistake, the Bengals were the better team on Saturday, but their coach was so tentative at times he almost allowed his team to go to OT. CIN’s QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals benefitted from a whistle that did not get a replay resulting in a TD early. However, CIN should have been up by 20 in the first half. Give the Raiders credit, they grinded and had a shot to tie late, however a blown series inside the Bengals 10 in the waning seconds ends their miracle run, 26-19 (CIN covers -6, Under 48.5).
  • Bills Trounce Pats – Well, that game earlier in the year when Pats’ Coach Bill Belichick decided to show up the Bills resulted in 2 games without a BUF punt, the first game in playoff history without a punt or turnover in modern history scoring 7 TDs in the game. Bills’ QB Josh Allen threw for 308 yds, 5 TDs and 0 INTs, plus 66 yards rushing. I’ll say it again, he’s my MVP, even though everyone loves TB12 and ARod. The Bill D also completely dismantled the basic NE offense. Bills can definitely win the Super Bowl. Bills 47-17 (BUF covers -4.5, Over 43).
  • Bucs D Leads the Way – A lot of money came in late on the Eagles late, but those sharps loving the Birds was not founded, as TB came out and pummeled PHI. Brady doesn’t have the weapons, but it didn’t matter as Brady was 29 of 37 for 271 yards. The real story was the TB D which looked a lot like what we saw a year ago. PHI only mustered 160 yards of total before the 4th Quarter. PHI’s Jalen Hurts doesn’t look like a Pro QB to me, as he was exposed pretty badly on Sunday. The Bucs may be underestimated on their title odds as they won, 31-15 (TB covers -7, Under 47.5).
  • 49ers Take Out the ‘Boys – Well, I predicted this one, but not the way it happened. SF came out and went right down the field and score a TD. Meanwhile, DAL did nothing on Offense, but they did have penalty after penalty (14 team penalties total) as the SF D-Line dominated. SF’s Jimmy G left the door open with a bad INT late and a false start to ice the game late which left the door open only to have DAL mess up with a QB draw late and blame the refs all you want, but the clock ran out for a reason. You do not run the ball in the middle of the field with no time outs. DAL’s Coach Mike McCarthy should be fired today, but Jerry doesn’t really want to win. SF wins, 23-17 (SF covers +3.5, Under 51).
  • Chiefs End Ben’s Career – I don’t think anyone gave the Steelers a chance, but when they scored a Defensive TD to take the lead in the 2nd Quarter, I thought they may have something. Well, the Chiefs play better when challenged, 35 unanswered points in less than a Quarter of game time knocked out the Steelers. KC looks great, but they will play for their lives on Sunday. KC wins 42-21 (KC covers -12, Over 46.5).
  • Rams Dominate the Cards – Going into the MNF Playoff game it seemed like this would be a close one, but something happened to the Cardinals down the stretch losing 4 of their last 5 games. Well, Monday was no different, as the Rams just throttled the Cards and AZ’s QB Kyler Murray was just terrible. After 2 solid TDs by the Rams, Murray made an unforgivable play in the end zone leading to an easy Pick 6 that essentially ended the game midway through the 2nd Quarter with a 21-0 score. The 2nd Half, the Rams were able to just run the ball at will and seal the game with ease. Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford gets his career playoff win. Rams win, 34-11 (LAR covers -3.5, Under 48.5).

So, I really solid start to the Playoffs: 5-1 S/U, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 on Totals.

Divisional Round Analysis

So, I believe the 6 best teams advanced in the Wild Card Round leaving the best field possible. Here is a review of the Playoff Index:

  1. Bills (2.50)
  2. Bucs (3.83)
  3. Chiefs (6.50)
  4. Packers (6.67)
  5. Rams (7.83)
  6. 49ers (8.17)
  7. Bengals (9.17)
  8. Titans (9.50)

AFC Match Ups

AFC Championship Rematch in Divisional Round
  • 4 Bengals at 1 Titans (-3.5, 47 Total) – Saturday, 1/22 at 3:30 PM Central – The Bengals are the young guns with all the confidence in the world and on paper, they are better than the Titans. However, the Titans have been able to secure Home Field Advantage despite major injuries on Offense. Well, RB Derrick Henry is back, WR AJ Brown is full speed and the O-Line is healthy, so I think their metrics are depressed. Plus, the Bengals sustained a couple key injuries to watch on D – DT Ogunjobi has been ruled out and DE Hendrickson is questionable with a Concussion. I think TEN will be able to run all over the Bengals who allowed the Raiders to run for 6 yards per carry. Burrow will have some magic, but lost in the TEN seasons been the massive improvement on Defense. I think the Titans roll easily here – Cover -3.5, and Over 47.
  • 6 49ers at 1 Packers (-5.5, 47.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/22 at 7:15 PM Central – The 49ers went in to DAL and completely controlled that game until the end. Can they do it again? Well, I think they can. The Pack give up 109.1 YPG on the ground, and the 49ers love to run the ball. We will need to watch the injury status of key D players: DE Nick Bosa (Concussion) and LB Fred Warner, plus QB Jimmy G has a shoulder strain on his throwing shoulder. GB’s QB Aaron Rodgers is the man for sure, and he may win another MVP with a great Home Field Advantage at Lambeau. However, I think GB will struggle, especially if Bosa is cleared to play. It should be a great game to watch against 2 excellent offensive minds, if you want to bet SF then wait but GB bet it before it gets to -7. I still like the upset here, SF wins, Cover +6, and Under 47.5, if Jimmy G gets ruled out then I’ll back the Pack.
  • 4 Rams at 2 Bucs (-3 , 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/23 at 2 PM Central – In another rematch, the Rams won easily in LA earlier this year, so they know the template to beat TB12. However, the Playoffs are another animal. The Bucs did leave their Wild Card match up with some key injuries on the O-Line – Tristan Wirfs is Questionable with an Ankle, which should play into the Total, but I’m not sure the Rams will be as successful as they have been this year against this re-charged Bucs D. I like TB to win this one still, and I’ll probably wait as the line may slip to below -3 closer to game time. This game should go Over 48.5.
  • Bills at 2 Chiefs (-2.5, 55 Total) – Sunday, 1/23 at 5:30 PM Central – This will be the best game in the playoffs this year in my opinion with a rematch of last year’s AFC Title Game and an earlier season match up in Arrowhead (Bills won, 38-20). You have two of the marquee QBs in BUF’s Josh Allen against KC’s Patrick Mahomes. You would think this will be a high scoring game with speed all over the field, however BUF does sport the leagues #1 D. So, I actually like the Under as crazy as it may sound, again I’m going to wait until game time as the public will be it up or Tease it with the Spread. I did pick KC to win it all last week, but I’m going to flip this week. I think the Bills are on a mission. Ever since they came back in the 2nd half at Tampa in Week 14, they have been playing differently. The Chiefs will play great, so let’s hope for a classic. I do think the team that runs the ball better will win the game. So, I’ll take the Bills to win (ML +115), Cover +2.5, and Under 55.

I’m excited for this coming week’s games.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.