NFL: Playoff Preview and Wild Card Leans

We did it! 18 Full Weeks and we had a game for the ages to end it.

Week 18 Recap

A lot of things happened in Week 18, here were a few of the highlights:

• Colts Collapse – Colts had 2 chances to win and get in over the last 2 weeks and lost at home to the Raiders, and the 7th straight loss in Jacksonville to the lowly Jags, 25-11. Carson Wentz is not the answer, and Jonathan Taylor’s dream season comes to an end.
• Pittsburgh Lives On – Looking dead in the water going into Week 17, the Steelers needed everything to break just right. The Colts loss opened the door, and even trailing early, PIT forced OT. Then, they won the game on a GW FG to take down the Ravens (who lost 6 straight to miss the playoffs), 16-13.
• Saints Did Their Part – New Orleans needing a win and SF loss took care of business at ATL with an easy 30-20 victory over the Falcons setting up the first nail biter of the evening.
• Jimmy G Comes Through – After possibly missing another start with a thumb injury, Jimmy G overcame a shaky start down 17-0 to storm back against the Rams. After tying the game with all the momentum and an INT, the Rams took the late lead only to have Jimmy and his weapons like Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings force OT and win in OT, 27-24, to grab a playoff spot.
• Prisoner’s Dilemma – Going into Sunday Night Football, a Raiders or Chargers win would put them in the playoffs along with Pittsburgh, but a tie would put them both in leaving the Steelers out. After the Raiders jumped all over the Chargers, QB Justin Herbert took his team back down 15 capped by a 19 play TD drive to force OT. Both teams scored a FG, and then the Raiders with the ball driving with time running with a 3rd and 4 at the 39 yard line with 38 seconds – Chargers’ Coach Brandon Staley called a TO. It appeared the Raiders were content on running the clock out for the tie, but the TO gave the Raiders an opportunity to reset and after a 10 yard game to get in FG range. The clock was run down to just 2 seconds, and the FG was good eliminating LA, 35-32. Staley’s decisions all season was questionable, but this one cost his team a playoff berth. Interim Coach Rich Bisaccia becomes the first interim head coach to lead his team to the playoffs in 60 years!!

Coaching Carousel – Black Monday

It happens every year. 6-8 coaches get fired each season, and this year was no different. We knew about the Raiders and Jon Gruden and the Jags and Urban Meyer, but who else would hit the street.

• Bears – Matt Nagy was a dead man walking for the last 2 weeks, but the Bears also canned GM Ryan Pace, which was brought cheers to the Chicago faithful.
• Vikings – Mike Zimmer’s era is over in Minnesota. One playoff appearance since the Minneapolis Miracle and signing of Kirk Cousins plus a complete disaster on defense. I’m thinking complete blow up in MIN. We will see.
• Broncos – Vic Fangio finished a completely lackluster season with a whimper. There are also instabilities in the Broncos’ ownership, so there could be an even bigger shake up if things change right before the Draft.
• Dolphins – Brian Flores gets fired after a rebuild year followed 2 near playoff misses: 10-6 in 2020 and 9-8 in 2021. “Creative differences” have been cited here, but he will not be on the street long.
• Giants – The Giants brass had gotten rid of Dave Gettlemen, but took until Tuesday to send Coach Joe Judge packing, as they should. He was awful.

Playoff Preview

I’m not sure there is a clear favorite this season. The Chiefs have the experience and recovered the issues, but the AFC is loaded. The NFC is almost more wide open to me as there are so many teams who can win it.

I’ll layout the bracket with seeding and the team’s Wegs Playoff Index, which uses the same metrics as the regular Wegs Index but only with the Playoff Field – lower number is better – along with outlook for each team.

The Bracket

AFC

1 Seed – Titans (9.50) – TEN gets that extra week to get RB Derrick Henry, but will it be enough? The Titans D has been much better, but they are not great metrically. I do think Vrabel is the Coach of the Year.

2 Seed – Chiefs (6.50) – The Chiefs have had a great second half, but the last 2 weeks were lackluster leaving doubt in my mind to win again.

3 Seed – Bills (2.50) – The Metrics Darling all year will have a chance to prove it with a gauntlet starting with NE. QB Josh Allen could prove his worth this post-season.

4 Seed – Bengals (9.17) – CIN rested their guys for good reason. A lot of people love this squad, but their D could struggle.

5 Seed – Raiders (12.17) – An improbable season really with the firing of Gruden and the Ruggs fiasco, but the Raiders have come together as a squad. I don’t see it, but maybe they are on a magical run.

6 Seed – Patriots (5.17) – They fall to 6 with the loss at MIA, and I don’t love their Wild Card match up.

7 Seed – Steelers (12.50) – QB Big Ben has at least one more game, but the Chiefs dusted them just a few weeks ago. Good luck, sir.

Wild Card – Titans – Bye

4 Bengals defeat 5 Raiders – The Raiders are a sentimental favorite, but you have to believe that emotional win took a lot out of them, and they have to turn around on a short week against a rested Bengals team. I’ll take CIN to win their first playoff game in decades and lay the points (-5.5) – Under 49.

3 Bills defeat 6 Patriots – The Bills are the better team. Weather is supposed to be awful, so that could help NE, but I think McDermott learned his lesson in the first match up. Go for the throat, and the Rook Mac Jones will need to play a lot better to give NE a shot in this one. Biggest chance of upset to me in the AFC, but I like BUF to win, but NE to cover -4 and Under 44.

2 Chiefs defeat 7 Steelers – Chiefs may struggle to cover (-12.5), but the Steelers can’t score with this team, so like the Under 46.5 – this is a good teaser leg from -12.5 to -6.5. Ben goes out in KC.

Divisional Round

1 Titans over 4 Bengals – Everyone has ruled TEN out, but Vrabel will have his team ready to rough up the young Bengals. Yep, the Bengals have more talent, and they probably should win, especially after they will likely blow out the tired Raiders might be favored. However, I think TEN shocks people.

2 Chiefs defeat 3 Bills – Here is the match up. The Bills could definitely win this game, and in a lot of ways, I’m going to root for them. However, BUF does not run the ball with their RBs. Allen will have to be All World to make this happen, and I don’t see it. Maybe the best game of the playoffs.

AFC Championship

2 Chiefs defeat 1 Titans – A rematch of the 2020 AFC Title game but in Nashville. I think it will be a game for the ages this time, but I do trust Mahomes and company. Incidentally, I think the Bills would also win in TEN if they can somehow beat KC in Arrowhead.

NFC

1 Seed – Packers (6.67) – The loss at the Lions meant nothing, but the Pack need to get past the NFC Title game this year.

2 Seed – Bucs (3.83) – Brady had an incredible season, but he will need an even better playoffs to repeat without Godwin and Brown at WR.

3 Seed – Cowboys (3.67) – Great metrics on both sides of the ball, but they draw a very dangerous opponent in the Wild Card.

4 Seed – Rams (7.83) – The Rams don’t have much of a home field advantage and Stafford is bad, but they have big names on D to help.

5 Seed – Cardinals (6.50) – The Cards could have hosted the Rams game, but they are better on the road anyway.

6 Seed – 49ers (8.17) – The team no one wanted to get in made it. If Jimmy G plays well, this team can win the Super Bowl.

7 Seed – Eagles (10.00) – Great rushing offense, but TB shuts down the run. Good luck, Jalen.

Wild Card – Packers – Bye

2 Bucs defeat 7 Eagles – The Bucs are vulnerable with their Offensive injuries, but the strength of the Bucs is stopping the run. PHI runs and that’s it. High winds will slow down TB, but I think the Bucs outclass the Birds. Unless the Eagles can slow this game to a crawl, I think the Bucs win, Cover -9, but game stays Under 46.

6 49ers defeat 3 Cowboys – Yep, I put the ‘Boys in the Super Bowl, but this 49ers team with all their guys back is a problem. I think this is the game of the weekend, and I will call the outright upset here, so win and Cover +3.5, the Total at 51 is about right, so I’ll call it Under.

5 Cardinals defeat 4 Rams – Another tight game here. Tough to call. I guess I trust Kyler Murray more than Matthew Stafford. The Rams should win, I mean they are favored (-4), but I don’t trust this team. So, I’m calling the outright upset, cover +4, and Over 49.5 given the other 2 times they squared off.

Divisional Round

6 49ers defeat 1 Packers – Probably a long shot here, but the Pack struggle against teams that run the ball well, and SF does that. I like almost all teams but AZ to beat the Pack in this round. Of course, weather could help the Pack, but another tough loss for GB.

2 Bucs defeat 5 Cardinals – The Master, Brady, defeats the Apprentice, Murray, in this one. Not a lot of analysis to me, the Bucs are just better.

NFC Championship

6 49ers defeat 2 Bucs – I’m taking a Wild Card Team to the Super Bowl. It doesn’t happen often, and I’m going against the Wegs Index with this team, but SF has what it takes to win the NFC – great D Line, rushing attack and enough playmakers to big plays with Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk and the emergence of Jauan Jennings. The Bucs are stout against the run and dominate at home, but they will need someone else besides Gronk and Evans to step up to get back to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl

A repeat for me of the 2020 Super Bowl, and yes, I’m matching my pre-season prediction – you see what I did there…. However, I think these are the 2 teams most likely in this crazy season to get here. I do think the Bills and Cowboys are the other next likely and the Index agrees. If DAL beats SF, then they will make the Bowl.

Still, Mahomes has learned how to beat the KC Stopper D, and the D has learned to be much better. SF will be great again, so this should be another great match up.

I’ll stick with my preseason pick here in KC defeating SF, but damn it is not as clear as other years. SF can win this game this time against KC or BUF.

Let’s do this thing!

Wegs