The best thing about the NFL is that most games really matter. Entering Week 17, we had 24 teams in the hunt for the playoffs. Now, that has whittled down quite a bit, but seeding is still in question in both conferences.

5 Things I Learned in Week 17

Rookie Jamar Chase Was Sublime
  • Bengals Are Not Paper Tigers – My podcast co-host, Steve “Action” Roberts loves the term, “paper tiger,” which refers to a team that is good on paper but in reality they are a fraud on the field. The Bengals (who incidentally are tigers) had failed in 2 situations this season when they could show they were a legit contender. Well, this time, despite trailing by 14 points on 2 occasions, were able to take out the Chiefs at home. My Rookie of the Year, WR Jamar Chase was simply incredible, 11 catches, 266 yards and 3 TDS (including 2 over 69 yards). Now, the Bengals actually have an outside shot to be the 1 Seed in the AFC, and they are the AFC North Champs going away.
  • Vikings Will Reboot – We all remember the Minneapolis Miracle a few years back, but QB Kirk Cousins has won 1 playoff game since he signed that big contract. Cousins tanked his team’s playoff chances with his positive COVID test and non-vaccinated status on Sunday. The Vikings got completely rocked by Green Bay, and in my view Coach Zimmer’s days are numbered. Cousins may survive another year, but with the other talent on this team, another QB may be in order, as well.
  • Raiders Have Life – Vegas has had an up and down season filled with Gruden being fired, Henry Ruggs being arrested, and that’s not including anything on the field. Well, Sunday, they stood up against the surging Colts, and QB Derek Carr (255 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) made the play of the season on 3rd and long at midfield. With that completion, the Raiders now can win and get in the post-season for their first time in Las Vegas.
  • Remember The Titans – The Titans after Week 9 were the #1 Seed after winning 6 straight, even after losing the great RB Derrick Henry. Then, the Titans had injuries all over their team losing 3 of 4 and in jeopardy of losing AFC South to the Colts. However, my Coach of the Year Mike Vrabel led his men to back to back wins, including the 34-3 drubbing and elimination of the Dolphins. The Titans secure the South but also have a stranglehold on the 1 Seed with the KC loss at CIN. With Henry back, this team will be tough in the playoffs.
  • Kyler Owns Dallas – The local kid, QB Kyler Murray, used to light up the scoreboards through the Dallas area in high school. Now, as a pro, he has come into Jerry’s World and won twice over the favored Cowboys. Another great performance, 263 yards passing, 44 yards rushing and 2 TDs and with the win, AZ has another shot at the NFC West again, but more importantly, DAL may want to avoid another match up with Kyler in a couple weeks.

Wegs Index After Week 17

  1. Bills 10-6 (3.17) – The Bills stay on top of the Index for yet another week, despite not playing super sharp over ATL. However, with another win, they win the AFC East.
  2. Bucs 12-4 (5.67) – Tampa should have lost at the Jets, but Brady took the opportunity left by Jets’ Coach Saleh to come back and win. Still, the AB walk off and Godwin injury is going to hurt them in the playoffs.
  3. Cowboys 11-5 (5.83) – DAL seems to dominate their division, but playing other top teams may be an issue. Still, talent will get them a chance.
  4. Patriots 10-6 (5.83) – The Offensive explosion over the woeful Jags keep the Pats up, but they still could use a home game in the playoffs
  5. Cardinals 11-5 (7.83) – The Cards finally righted the ship in DAL. They are better on the road than at home, so winning the division may not be helpful.
  6. Packers 13-3 (8.83) – The Pack have completed dominated the NFC North in the past 2 seasons. Their throttling of the Vikes finally gets their metrics up.
  7. Colts 9-7 (9.67) – Apparently Carson Wentz needs practice to be decent, as he was terrible. They can still miss the playoffs with a loss on Sunday.
  8. Chiefs 11-5 (10.33) – The Chiefs D defensive run came to an end in CIN. They still can bounce back.
  9. Rams 12-4 (11.00) – The Rams should have lost at BAL, and Matthew Stafford better stop turning the ball over.
  10. Eagles 9-7 (11.33) – PHI qualifies with their comeback at WAS. Can this betting darling be a spoiler in the playoffs?
  11. Bengals 10-6 (12.83) – Defensive metrics keep CIN down the ranks, but they can score in bunches.
  12. 49ers 9-7 (12.83) – TO Differential really hurts this team.

Week 18 Playoff Scenarios

AFC

  • 1 Seed (Bye) – Titans (11-5) – They win @HOU and they are the 1 Seed and get that Bye for one more week for Henry to return. If they do lose and the Chiefs or Bengals win, then they can lose it.
  • 2 Seed – Chiefs (11-5) – KC needs to win @DEN and a Titans loss to take back the 1 Seed. However, if they lose and CIN wins and BUF wins, they can drop all the way to the 4 seed and have to play on the road in the Divisional Round.
  • 3 Seed – Bengals (10-6) – Winners of the AFC North means they will host a playoff game now, and if they can win @CLE with losses by KC and TEN, then they will grab the 1 Seed, as improbably as it sounds.
  • 4 Seed – Bills (10-6) – BUF needs to win over the Jets at home. With the loss to the Titans, BUF can go no higher than the 2 Seed. A loss and NE win makes them a Wild Card team on the Road.
  • 5 Seed – Patriots (10-6) – Pats can win the AFC East with a win @MIA and BUF loss. Otherwise, if they were to lose and IND wins, then the would fall to the 6 Seed.
  • 6 Seed – Colts (9-7) – IND lost their shot at securing a playoff berth with the Raiders loss. IND has to win @JAC to secure a berth, otherwise a loss and wins by PIT and a LAC or LVR win, knocks them out.
  • 7 Seed – Chargers (9-7) – Chargers have a win and they’re in scenario @LVR on Sunday Night Football. A loss by the Colts could allow a Tie for them to get in, as well.
  • 8 Seed – Raiders (9-7) – Raiders have to win and they’re in versus the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. Now, with a Colts loss and a tie, they, too would make the playoffs.
  • 9 Seed – Steelers (8-7-1) – Somehow the Steelers are still alive. With CLE getting eliminated, the Browns played like trash on MNF paving the way for PIT to still get in with a lot of help. PIT needs to win @BAL, IND to lose and no tie in the Chargers/Raiders game to get in.

Long Shot: BAL somehow is not eliminated, but they would need to Win vs. PIT, IND to lose, and Chargers to lose to get in.

NFC

  • 1 Seed (Bye) – Packers (13-3) – Green Bay locked up the 1 seed for the 2nd straight year with the MIN victory.
  • 2 Seed – Rams (12-4) – The Rams still need to win versus SF or tie to win the NFC West or if AZ loses. They will keep the 2 Seed if they win or TB and DAL loses.
  • 3 Seed – Bucs (12-4) – That win over the Jets kept them in the mix for the 2 Seed. They need to win versus CAR and a Rams loss to jump them into the 2 Seed. Otherwise, they are locked into the 3 Seed.
  • 4 Seed – Cowboys (11-5) – The best DAL can hope for is the 3 Seed, which they will need to win @PHI and a loss by the Rams. Otherwise, they are locked into the 4 Seed.
  • 5 Seed – Cardinals (11-5) – AZ gave themselves a chance at a home game in the playoffs. With a win versus SEA and Rams loss, then they can jump up to as high as the 2 Seed with a Tampa loss – AZ now owns the tiebreaker over DAL.
  • 6 Seed – 49ers (9-7) – The easiest way for SF to make the playoffs is to win @LAR, but they can still get in with a loss and NO loss. If they lose and NO wins, then they will miss the playoffs. If they do lose and NO loses with a PHI win, then PHI will take the 6 Seed.
  • 7 Seed – Eagles (9-7) – PHI is in the playoffs, and they can only move up to the 6 Seed with a win and SF loss.

Long Shot: Saints – Like BAL, the Saints really need help to get in. NO has to win @ATL and SF has to lose for them to steal the playoff spot.

Marquee Match Ups in Week 18

Chargers at Raiders For One Spot
  • 49ers at Rams (-4, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/9 at 3:25 PM Central – As laid out, this is one of two games that pits potential playoff teams against each other. SF needs to win to definitely get in, but the Rams want to win the NFC West so they can host up to 2 playoff games. A Rams loss opens the door for AZ to take the crown. So, both teams have motivation. I don’t trust Stafford after back to back multiple TO games, and SF has dominated this series. So, I like SF and the points.
  • Chargers at Raiders (+3, 49.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/9 at 7:20 PM Central – The playoffs start a week early with a win or go home game. I love this. The Chargers dominated the first meeting, but the Raiders have the same motivation. I think the Chargers do win this one, but the Raiders have surprised me before.

Should be a fun week. I’ll have the playoff bracket mapped out next week and the Playoff Index to review.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.