It is time. Time when the best teams play their best and pretenders fall by the wayside. The Holidays may be in full effect, as is the COVID news, but make no mistake about it, the NFL is full steam ahead.

5 Things I Learned in Week 16

With Dak Back, The Cowboys Look Like Contenders
  1. Cowboys In the Super Bowl – I know, I know, I’ve said this before – see 2020 NFL Preview. However, this team is different. DC Dan Quinn has this team playing great, and now that they are healthy, they are playing fast and furious. The Offense is #1 in the league, and QB Dak Prescott looks very healthy. The other NFC teams are not up to snuff with injuries, etc. The only impediment to getting to the big game in my view is Head Coach Mike McCarty, but even he can’t mess up the most talented team in the NFC.
  2. Chiefs In The Super Bowl – Yep, I picked them 3 years running now, but the Chiefs have completely turned their season around. They learned their lesson mid-season when teams when teams played way back. QB Patrick Mahomes hits the check down and they are running the ball. Yes, BUF will be there, but I still don’t see them running the ball enough to win. IND is a definite dark horse, but Wentz is not the guy. CIN and NE could be tough, but the Chiefs are back to Championship level. So, buy your tickets now on DAL vs. KC (yes, my 2020 match up that didn’t happen).
  3. Bengals Are Present and Future in AFC North – I’m still not a Zac Taylor guy, but QB Joe Burrow, WRs Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins, plus RB Joe Mixon are doing this without a top flight O-Line. The D is veteran, but they will attract people. The Steelers reign is over. BAL can reload, but no one fears them, and CLE will be searching for a QB. The Bengals, like I wrote a few weeks back, will win the North and should for the next 3 years.
  4. Pete Carroll Will Be Fired – I love Pete. He has the energy of a man half his age, and if you don’t know Carroll is the oldest coach in the NFL. However, the model is outdated and the player selections have been poor. This team with Russell Wilson has just 5 wins. This week SEA blew a 10 point lead to the Bears with 3rd stringer, Nick Foles at the helm. It’s time for a big change, and I would not be shocked if he is out after next week’s game.
  5. Frank Reich is Coach of the Year – I’m still backing Mike Vrabel given what he has dealt with, however Reich was 1-4. They are 9-6 now, and they probably should be 11-4 with 2 blown games versus TEN and TB. No one wants to play the Colts, and it is a treat to be able to watch the mid-season Hard Knocks. I’m a huge fan of Reich and this team, and I want to see a Colts-Chiefs AFC Title Game.

Wegs Index After Week 16

  1. Bills 9-6 (3.00) – The Bills dominated the Patriots on both sides of the ball. HC Sean McDermott was on a mission, and he will need to keep that up when the playoffs come.
  2. Cowboys 11-4 (5.33) – The Boys are rolling. #1 on Offense – Yards and Points/Game, and now 7th in Points Against and 2nd in TO Differential. I bought my futures ticket today.
  3. Bucs 11-4 (5.50) – The Bucs won the NFC South this week, but I do think the loss of Godwin will hurt them in the long run. Maybe they can secure Home Field in the playoffs from Tampa.
  4. Cardinals 10-5 (7.17) – The fall off for the Cardinals in back to back seasons is notable. The D needs to be better, and now the Rams lead the division.
  5. Patriots 9-6 (7.33) – I think Mac Jones was exposed this week. He may win Rookie of the Year, but he will need to be better against top opponents in the playoffs.
  6. Chiefs 11-4 (7.83) – The meteoric rise in the Index has happened on Defense – 4th in Points Against and now +3 in TO Differential, when they were -11 at one point.
  7. Colts 9-6 (9.33) – The O-Line is the heart and soul of this team, so their health will be key, but the Titans need to keep winning or IND will take the South.
  8. Rams 11-4 (10.00) – Stafford has to stop turning the ball over, but the Rams D has improved steadily and we know the Offense is good. RB Sony Michel has really helped.
  9. Eagles 8-7 (10.50) – Eagles are climbing the Index and can definitely make the playoffs.
  10. Packers 12-3 (10.67) – Another baffling year where GB could secure Home Field Advantage and be middle of the pack in the metrics except for TO Differential (1st with +16).

Final 2 Weeks Playoff Scenarios

Over the next 2 weeks, I’ll review the Playoff Scenarios, so it will help to figure out what results really matter. I’ll break it down by current seeding and classify teams as:

In – those teams who have qualified

Will Be In – teams that are virtual locks

Need Help – those teams that need to win and get others to lose

NFC

1 Seed (Only Bye) – Green Bay (12-3) – In and can secure Home Field Advantage with Wins over MIN and @DET (with a game lead, DAL and TB losing would really help)

2 Seed – Dallas (11-4) – In, as they have won the NFC East and has the tiebreaker over TB and LAR, but they can secure Home Field with wins AZ and @PHI with a GB loss.

3 Seed – LA Rams (11-4) – In, the Rams are in, but they haven’t secured the NFC West, but can with a win @BAL or SF and AZ loss

4 Seed – Tampa Bay (11-4) – In, as they have won the NFC South, and they can still win Home Field, but they will need GB to lose twice, and win @NYJ and CAR

5 Seed – Arizona (10-5) – In, they have clinched a spot, but they can still win the NFC West if the Rams lose at least one game and win both games @DAL and SEA

6 Seed – San Francisco (8-7) – Will Be In, if they win one more game HOU or @LAR with tiebreaker over PHI they should stay at 6

7 Seed – Philadelphia (8-7) – Will Be In, as soon as they win one more game @WAS or DAL, now if they lose both, then they can get jumped by MIN, ATL or NO with a long shot by WAS who they can eliminate on Sunday

Minnesota (7-8) – Need Help – The Vikings biggest game is @GB this weekend, if they lose, then they will effectively be eliminated. If they win this weekend and over CHI, then they need PHI to lose a game).

Falcons (7-8) – Need Help – Falcons are are a long shot at 4-7 in the NFC. They need to win @BUF and over NO, so if they lose to BUF, they are effectively eliminated.

Saints (7-8) – Need Help – Saints are 5-5 in the NFC, so that is good, but they need to win out – CAR and @ATL and a loss by PHI. All possible.

WAS (6-9) – Need Help – Total long shot, they need to win both games – PHI and @NYG with several other teams losing, so win this week to start.

AFC

1 Seed (Only Bye) – Kansas City (11-4) – In, the only AFC team to clinch a playoff spot with the AFC West crown. They can secure Home Field Advantage with a win @CIN or @DEN and a TEN loss. The AFC should go through Arrowhead again.

2 Seed – Tennessee (10-5) – Will Be In, TEN needs one more win to secure the AFC South or an IND loss – they play MIA and @HOU. I see that happening, but the 2 Seed is in jeopardy if CIN can take out KC on Sunday.

3 Seed – Cincinnati (9-6) – Will Be In, the Bengals best path to both the AFC North and the 2 Seed is wining this week over KC, but they can still win @CLE in Week 18.

4 Seed – Buffalo (9-6) – Will Be In, the Bills need to take out ATL on the road to secure a berth, but will need to beat NYJ in Week 18 to win the AFC East unless NE loses one.

5 Seed – Indianapolis (9-6) – Will Be In, with remaining games LVR and @JAC – one win will do it for a berth, but they can still win the AFC South with both wins and TEN losing both. They can also technically take the 1 Seed if they win both and KC losing both.

6 Seed – New England (9-6) – Will Be In, 2 remaining games – JAC and @MIA – if they win both and BUF loses to the Jets, then they can win the AFC East.

7 Seed – Miami (8-7) – Will Be In, with remaining games @TEN and NE, they need to at least split to get in with some help or win out to secure the bid and even jump NE in the 6 Seed.

Baltimore (8-7) – Need Help – First, the Ravens need to win a game. They have lost 4 straight games, so games remaining versus LAR and PIT. With a loss to MIA and a 5-6 AFC record, they need to really win out and pray for a chance.

Chargers (8-7) – Need Help – Horrible loss to HOU cost them a spot, so now the Chargers need to win versus DEN and @LVR plus a MIA loss.

Raiders (8-7) – Need Help – At 6-4 in the AFC they still have a pulse, but lose the tiebreaker to the Chargers and Dolphins, so they need to win both games – @IND and LAC with a MIA loss to qualify.

Steelers (7-7-1) – Need Help – Steelers and Browns game is an elimination on Monday, if they win, then another winner take all game @BAL.

Browns (7-8) – Need Help – Browns @PIT is a must win and CIN game with lots of losses ahead of them at 4-6 in the AFC.

Broncos (7-8) – Need Help – A woeful 3-7 in the AFC leaves the Broncos with a next to none chance of making the field.

Marquee Match Ups in Week 17

Can Chase and the Bengals Jump Over the Chiefs?
  • Chiefs at Bengals (+4.5, 49 Total) – Sunday, 1/2 at 12 Noon Central – An AFC Divisional Playoff preview in this one, the Chiefs are red hot, but the Bengals are one of those teams that are as explosive as KC. I’m curious to see how the Bengals run the ball against the Chiefs. So, as much as the Chiefs are back, I may want to take the Bengals and the points here.
  • Broncos at Chargers (-6, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/2 at 3:05 PM Central – This game is effectively an elimination game. Both teams lost, but the Chargers loss was abysmal. I think the Chargers win this one, but I don’t have the stones to lay those points, even with the putrid Broncos’ Offense.
  • Cardinals at Cowboys (-5.5, 49.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/2 at 3:25 PM Central – Another potential playoff match here, but 2 teams going in different directions. The Boys should handle the Cards, but maybe QB Kyler Murray will play big going home to Texas. I still like DAL to cover.
  • Vikings at Packers (-7, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/2 at 7:20 PM Central – The Vikings are still in the mix, but another loss should kill their season and HC Mike Zimmer’s tenure in MIN. Plus, the Pack lost in MIN, so a revenge angle. I do like the Over in this one.

2 Weeks to go.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.