The NFL has a way of self-correcting over time. Underdogs have ruled the roost in 2021, but in Week 14, it was time for the Favorites to take care of business.

5 Things I Learned in Week 14

Josh Allen’s Performance Is Foreshadowing
  1. Regression to the Mean – As I wrote, if you had bet on Underdogs I the NFL prior to Week 14, then you would have been very profitable. In fact, you would have won nearly 58% of the time when 53% is a profit. In Week 14, Favorites covered a shocking 11 of 14 games. Also, the Favorite won the game in 12 of 14 games outright. On the season, that brings the totals back to more historic levels of 52% for Underdogs. Is another big Favorite week coming?
  2. Josh Allen Will Be An MVP – The game of the week and possibly the season happened between TB and BUF in the late window on Sunday. TB12 and Company were crushing the Bills at home like they have done to all their opponents. The Bills were looking for answers. Then, the D finally got some stops, and the Bills let Josh Allen be incredible. 308 yards passing with 2 TDs, 109 yards rushing with another TD. The Bills had Bucs’ fans peeing their pants on the final drive of regulation, but had to settle for a FG to force OT. The Bucs did get the stop, but Allen, to me, showed he can lead a team to a title.
  3. Browns Can’t Hold A Lead – CLE ran out easily against the Ravens and knocked out QB Lamar Jackson for a 24-3 lead. Then, in the 2nd Half, the Offense went cold and allowed back up QB Tyler Huntley score 19 unanswered points. They even had another chance with an onside kick recovery to outright win the game. CLE may be in position to grab a playoff spot, but they better find that killer instinct they had against CIN.
  4. Titans Bounce Back – The Titans had lost 2 straight headed into the Bye, and sure Urban Meyer may have the Jags out of sync, but a 20-0 win was what they needed. The Titans D has been good, and even if the Jags were not playing for Meyer, 192 Total Yards is a great effort.
  5. Cowboys D Will Be A Problem – Now, you may think I’m saying the Dallas D is not good. Quite the contrary, now that all of the D Line is healthy, Rookie LB Micah Parsons can completely shine. He is going to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, but he could win Defensive Player of the Year. It took 3 Quarters for WAS to even look like an NFL team against all the Dallas pressure. I really like their prospects in January, especially against the likes of Brady and Bucs and Rodgers and the Pack.

Wegs Index After Week 14

  1. Bills 7-6 (4.50) – Finally out of the top spot, the Bills are now in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, despite that incredible comeback in Tampa. I think they get in and build off of the loss, but we will see in NE in 2 weeks.
  2. Cardinals 10-3 (4.67) – The Cardinals had their chance to essentially win the AFC West, but now the door is open to drop the division and now are out of the 1 Seed in the NFC.
  3. Patriots 9-4 (6.00) – The Pats will get some tough tests in the next 2 weeks, but they are in line for the 1 Seed with the Chiefs in the “Objects Are Closer Than They Appear” in their rearview. Colts on Deck.
  4. Colts 7-6 (7.17) – The Colts D has really improved, and they will get a chance to shutdown the Pats at home.
  5. Bucs 10-3 (7.17) – A dramatic walk off win was all but crowning TB12 with another MVP, but that BUF 2nd half may have exposed some serious weaknesses.
  6. Cowboys 9-4 (8.17) -The Boys looked dominant in the first half at WAS, and that Defense really looked different. Now, the 2nd half and mostly 4th Quarter gave me some pause, as the O Line didn’t not allow them to run the clock. DAL will need Tony Pollard back to close games, as Zeke looks cooked.
  7. Packers 10-3 (8.67) – The Pack got a scare versus the lowly Bears, but when they need to, they can turn it on. I do think against heavy pass rush, GB is very vulnerable.
  8. Rams 9-4 (9.83) – The Rams needed to show me something, and they did. The pass offense destroyed AZ, and their metrics allowed them to jump up the Wegs Index.

Marquee Games in Week 15

Young Guns Battle for the AFC West on Thursday
  • Chiefs at Chargers (+3, 52 Total) – Thursday, 12/16 at 7:20 PM Central – The Chiefs are rolling, and the Chargers look like the next victim. The Chargers got the big upset in their first meeting, but not sure they can stop this freight train. I like the Chiefs and the Under.
  • Patriots at Colts (-2.5, 45.5 Total) – Saturday, 12/18 at 7:20 PM Central – A nice Saturday match up here, and the stout Pats’ D will be tested against that Colts’ O Line and Jonathan Taylor. The number looks right, but I think the Colts will get this one and Cover.
  • Bengals at Broncos (-1.5, 43.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/19 at 3:05 PM Central – This game has serious playoff implications with both teams coming in at 7-6. Loser will likely be sitting home in January. I’ve been riding the Bengals train despite back to back losses. I think they get a big win in Mile High.
  • Packers at Ravens (+4.5, 43.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/19 at 3:25 PM Central – The Ravens are about to enter a virtual tailspin. With back to back losses in the Division, BAL needs to get a win. The Pack need to keep pushing for Home Field Advantage. So, big game for both teams, but I think the Pack take care of business with more film on the back up QB.

With 4 Weeks to go, it’s nut cutting time.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.