It seems like some teams are heating up at the right time to make a run for the final stretch.

5 Things I Learned From Week 12

Bengals Can Win the AFC North
  1. Patriots Are A Top 4 Team – I’ve been hard on this team. I still think they will be tested when they play the Bills and Colts, but this Pats’ D is legit. When Jones is able to actually hit his WRs along with that run game, that makes NE a Top 4 Team. The Titans were weakened with injuries, but the NE 36-13 win makes 6 straight wins with their only loss versus Dallas in OT for 7 of their last 8. Yes, it’s a weird year and anything can happen, but given the outlook in the AFC I think they can play for the AFC Crown.
  2. Never Doubt The Pack at Home – I wrote it last week, but it came through again, the Packers are great at home. Even with both OTs out, Rodgers and the gang manhandled the Rams who a lot of Sharps liked in that one, 36-28. If the NFC goes through Lambeau again, it may be the Pack’s time to finally make the Super Bowl.
  3. Bengals Kings of the North? – Probably a stretch, but this Bengals team is different. They play physical – running for 198 yards against the Steelers’ in their 41-10 win to sweep the series this year. Plus, they are skilled with Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase. With 3 wins banked in the division, they are in a great position to leapfrog the Ravens. Plus, they already beat them with their next match up at home. Regardless of whether they do or not, this team should be in the playoffs despite a rough schedule to finish (Chargers, 49ers, at Broncos, Ravens, Chiefs and at Browns).
  4. If Colts Only Had A D – What happened to the Top D in the AFC a year ago? The Bucs went into Indy and came back from a 24-14 deficit to win 38-31. Sure, Carson Wentz had a terrible 2nd half, but with the game tied and just over 3 minutes to go, IND couldn’t stop TB12 on a 75 yard game winning TD drive. The Colts at 6-6 are in trouble now to make the playoffs despite how well they’ve played over the last month.
  5. 49ers Have Found Something – With the Trey Lance experience behind them and a much healthier team, SF has won 3 straight scoring 30 points or more in each one. WR Deebo Samuel is getting the ball in every way possible augmenting the run game. So, with only 2 more divisional games, they can solidify their position in the NFC.

Wegs Index After Week 12

  1. Bills 7-4 (2.33) – A resounding victory at NO kept them on top, but now they need to face the hottest team in the AFC.
  2. Patriots 8-4 (5.00) – #1 in Points Against and 2nd in Point Differential, the Pats will try to solidify their hold on 1st place in the AFC East with their match up at BUF.
  3. Cardinals 9-2 (5.33) – The Cards will need to get healthy after this Bye to beat Green Bay out of the 1 Seed in the NFC.
  4. Bucs 8-3 (6.17) – The big win at IND sets them up to jump both AZ and GB as their remaining schedule is the easiest of the top teams in the NFC (at ATL, BUF, NO, at CAR, at NYJ and CAR).
  5. Packers 9-3 (9.00) – Injured or not, the Pack will win the NFC North easily, and with that 7-2 NFC record could be tough to beat.
  6. Cowboys 7-4 (9.50) – The Boys need to get it together with their now 26th Ranked D in Yards Against.

Predictions After 12 Weeks: After 12 Weeks, I’m sitting at 59.78% predicted correctly on the season. Plus, I’ve got 9 of 32 (28.13%) teams exactly correct on their record to this point – TB, MIN, IND, JAC, HOU, NO, DEN, LAR, and LVR. The major shockers to date are: CIN (7-4 vs. 1-10), NE (8-4 vs. 5-7), and AZ (9-2 vs. 6-5). The disappointments have been WAS (5-6 vs. 8-3), SF (6-5 vs. 9-2) and MIA (5-7 vs. 8-4) although all are getting hot with SF and WAS currently in the Playoffs.

Marquee Games in Week 13 (All AFC Edition)

Pats at Bills – Let’s Do This!!
  • Chargers at Bengals (-3, 50.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/5 at 12 Noon Central – The Chargers are slipping back out of the playoff race, so they need this one at CIN. However, the Chargers can’t stop the run, and RB Joe Mixon has scored a Rushing TD in 8 straight games. I’d stick with the Bengals in this one and to cover -3.
  • Ravens at Steelers (+4, 44 Total) – Sunday, 12/5 at 3:25 PM Central – The Steelers are on life support for the playoffs, so this is their last stand at home. I don’t see them winning this one, but I see an Over (44) in this low total.
  • Broncos at Chiefs (-10, 47 Total) – Sunday, 12/5 at 7:20 PM Central – Can the Chiefs continue to roll? Well, I like the D against Teddy Covers, but -10 is a lot to lay for this Chiefs team that doesn’t score as much 2020.
  • Patriots at Bills (-2.5, 43.5 Total) – Monday, 12/6 at 7:15 PM Central – Here we go, the showdown we have wanted to see. NE took a year off being the top dog in the AFC East. Now, the Bills will have to play like the team they can be against a top D. I like the Bills to win, but take those points with NE (+2.5).

Byes: CLE, GB, CAR and TEN

We have 6 Weeks left in this crazy season. All downhill from here.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.