Are you entertained? Well, I am every week. Like I’ve written before, it’s going to be a wild season with no clear cut top team or teams.

5 Things I Learned in Week 11

Chris Jones and the Chiefs Are D’ing Up
  1. Watch Out for the Colts – I wrote about this a while back that Coach Frank Reich has his teams improve as the season goes on, and that’s been 100% true. If it were not for the Carson Wentz INTs versus the Titans, the Colts would have 6 straight wins. This week they destroyed BUF by running all over them. 185 more yards from RB Jonathan Taylor. No one wants to play these guys now.
  2. Chiefs Can Play D – After a horrible start, the DC Steve Spagnolo has righted the ship. I think the move to Chris Jones back to DT has really helped both the rush defense and interior pass rush. Jones sacked Dak Prescott 3.5 times, and the D held DAL to just 9 points. DAL had scored multiple TDs in every game this year. Since the loss to the Titans, KC has given up 17, 7, 14 and 9 points for 11.75 PPG and 4 straight wins.
  3. Eagles Great ATS – Bettors who use metrics exclusively have been buying big into the Eagles all season. I, for one, didn’t believe it going into this week against the Saints. However, despite facing a tough rush D, the Eagles ran for 242 yards and putting up 33 Offensive Points. The D was great until the furious 4th Quarter comeback, but that’s why the computer guys love them. The Eagles are now 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games. With just NFC East games and the Jets left on the schedule, the Eagles are a definitely playoff contender.
  4. Patriots Control Their Destiny – The Pats are now in 1st place in the AFC East. They have won 5 straight games, and 2 games against the Bills in their last 6, they can win the Division. That D has ticked up to #1 in Points Against and #3 in Yards Against.
  5. Tyrod Makes All The Difference – The Texans may have QB Davis Mills for the future, but Tyrod Taylor makes them competitive. After a win in Week 1 and now in Week 11, not sure if they will go back to the rookie. Houston was able to take out the streaking Titans with ease forcing 5 TOs in the 22-13 win.

Wegs Index After Week 11

  1. Bills 6-4 (2.83) – The drubbing at the hands of the Colts doesn’t knock them out of the 1 slot, but with tougher teams ahead, the Bills need to play better against the big boys.
  2. Cardinals 9-2 (4.83) – Credit the coaching staff to get this team to play despite missing Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins. All they do is win, and it’s the D helping at 4th in Scoring Against and 5th in Yards Against.
  3. Bucs 7-3 (5.50) – TB12 got through the Giants, sure, but they need to be better against the top tier NFC opponents.
  4. Patriots 7-4 (6.00) – Coach Belichick is in “take no prisoners” mode right now. That D has completely dismantled opposing offenses giving up just 13 points over the last 3 weeks. Next up the wounded Titans.
  5. Cowboys 7-3 (7.50) – I was not impressed with the gameplan versus KC, especially since they only ran the ball 16 times in a tight game. Still DAL is #1 in Yards Gained.
  6. Colts 6-5 (9.50) – IND is a force right now. That O Line is taking names, and the D is forcing TOs which puts the Colts #1 in TO Differential at +15.
  7. Rams 7-3 (9.83) – The Rams can still bounce back, but I think it is on D that they are lacking.

Marquee Games in Week 12

Which QB Will Get It Done on SNF?
  • Bucs at Colts (+3, 51.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/28 at Noon Central – We are going to see what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. TB’s rush D is usually top flight, but the Colts O Line has been crushing its opponents allowing Jonathan Taylor to run wild. Should be a great game. I still like the Colts here getting the points.
  • Titans at Patriots (-6.5, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/28 at Noon Central – The Titans really could use Derrick Henry in this one, as the Pats have been so physical upfront. I think the TEN losing streak extends to 2 after this one, and I’d lay the points.
  • Rams at Packers (PK, 48 Total) – Sunday, 11/28 at 3:25 PM Central – A rematch of the NFC Divisional game from last season, and the Rams thought they had the answer in Stafford. I’m not so sure. Yes, he has played decent against the Pack in the past, but that Packers D is better now. I like the Pack to defend Lambeau Field yet again.
  • Browns at Ravens (-3.5, 46 Total) – Sunday, 11/28 at 7:20 PM Central – There is no love lost in this match up. I really thought 2021 would be the Browns year, but they have not been performing to expectation. Meanwhile, the Ravens play down to lesser opponents, but up in big games. I think this qualifies as a big game, assuming QB Lamar Jackson is back healthy. Lay those points.

Alright, Happy Thanksgiving and even though I didn’t preview any of those games, it’s a bonus to get more football on Thursday.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.