NFL: 5 Things Learned from Week 7

Just when you think you have a handle on this league, it flips you on your head.

5 Things I Learned in Week 7

1. The Chiefs Have Super Bowl Hangover – Most Super Bowl losers do not return to the playoffs in the following year. Now, we all know that the KC Defense is terrible. It’s been that way since the start of 2020, but Patrick Mahomes is costing the Offense over and over again. In the Super Bowl, when Mahomes tried to make crazy plays it almost worked. However, this year, it isn’t. Terrible decisions and extending plays have led to 9 INTs and 2 Fumbles in just 7 games, and just 3 points against the Titans. I don’t think the Chiefs make the playoffs this year.
2. Bengals Are Legit – Going into Week 7, the Bengals had not scored a TD against BAL since 2019. However, this Bengals team is a big play squad. QB Joe Burrow has his guy in WR Ja’marr Chase who has 50+ yard TDs seemingly every week. The Defense has been the real reason, and so this young Offense with the Veteran Defense are now #1 in the AFC in the standings.
3. The Colts Have Turned It Around – I wasn’t certain Wentz and the Colts had it in them, but after a terrible 1-3 start, the Colts have figured it out. Maybe it is the running game with RB Jonathan Taylor or the Defense getting healthy, but the Colts under Coach Frank Reich always seem to get better. This year’s team is the same, and with the big win at SF in the pouring rain have set up a critical game this week hosting TEN.
4. Raiders Are Better Without Chucky – Sometimes you see a bump after a coach is fired, and when Vegas beat the struggling Broncos, that was it. However, the Raiders were able to follow up that win with a strong performance against the Eagles at home. QB Derek Carr has been great completing 80.33% in those two games leading to 67 points. The offense seems to be just fine without their old coach.
5. The Pats Love the Jets – In 2 games versus the Jets this season, the Patriots have outscored them, 79-19. While the against the rest of the league, 121-100. So, if the Pats could play the terrible Jets every week, then they would make the playoffs. Let’s see how they do the rest of their season.

Wegs Index Through 7 Weeks

1. Bills 4-2 (2.00) – The Bills are still on top despite being on Bye and coming off a loss with #1 ranks on D, Point and TO Differential.
2. Cardinals 7-0 (3.50) – The Cards remain unblemished, and with a weakened Packers’ squad coming to town, they can get to the halfway point undefeated.
3. Bucs 6-1 (5.17) – That loss to the Rams seems like a speed bump on the way to another playoff berth. TB12 is leading the league in passing and the D is getting better despite not having any CBs.
4. Rams 6-1 (8.67) – The Rams had to struggle to get past the winless Lions, and my main concern is on the D as they are 21st in Yards Against.
5. Cowboys 5-1 (8.83) – The Boys are 6-0 ATS, so let’s see how the #1 Offense does at MIN.
6. Bengals 5-2 (10.50) – The Bengals deserve to be shown after their big win over BAL. CIN is Top 7 in both Points Scored and Against. The -3 TO Differential is a long term concern.

Marquee Games in Week 8

Packers at Cardinals (-6.5, 50.5 Total) – Thursday, 10/28 at 7:20 PM Central – This puts the match up of the longest current win streaks in the NFL. The Pack have been great since Week 1, but inside the numbers, they are not as strong as their record appears. While the Cardinals are still undefeated, I’m not sure the -6.5 is the right number even without WR Davante Adams for Green Bay. I’d probably take the points with Aaron Rodgers, even if the Cardinals stay undefeated.

Titans at Colts (-1, 51 Total) – Sunday, 10/31 at 12 Noon Central – The Colts have been surging as I’ve written and the Titans couldn’t be hotter with back to back wins over top AFC teams in the Bills and Chiefs. Strange line move to the Colts in this one who opened up as underdogs, which I believe in even before the move. I like the Colts in this one.

Patriots at Chargers (-5, 49 Total) – Sunday, 10/31 at 3:05 PM Central – The Patriots have been playing better, but I don’t trust the wins (2x against the Jets and other the Giants). The Chargers off of rest should win the game, but -5 points is a big spread. So, I like the Under in this game.

Buccaneers at Saints (+5.5, 50 Total) – Sunday, 10/31 at 3:25 PM Central – The Saints were the one team in 2020 that had the Bucs number winning twice in the regular season and should have won in the playoffs. I like the Saints and the points here mainly given the game is back in the Super Dome, which the Saints have barely played there this season and that D Line will get to Brady in a hard fought game. I also like the Under here.

Enjoy Week 8 as we are pushing towards the halfway mark of the season.

Wegs