As we go through the NFL season, some things start to clarify. It is still early, but some trends are being established.
5 Things Learned in Week 6
- Bears Can’t Cover Against the Pack – It’s been a while since the Bears have beaten the Packers. Now, Green Bay has not only beaten the Bears, but they have covered the spread ATS in 5 straight. When in doubt, pick Rodgers against the Bears.
- WAS D Was Over-Rated – This take is way overdue, but the team I thought could challenge the Cowboys in NFC East with all those 1st Round picks on the D-line has completely disappointed. Yes, the Chiefs trailed at halftime, 13-10, but the Chiefs rolled them 21-0 in the 2nd half. DE Chase Young has just 2 sacks on the season. WAS is now 31st in Yards Against and 32nd in Points Against – there’s only 32 teams.
- NFL Loves OT – Through 6 Weeks of the season, we have had at least one Overtime game each week. This week we were treated to 3 more OT games – 11 Total on the season.
- Home Field Advantage Means Nothing – Most bettors understand the “value” of the Home Field. Traditionally worth 2-3 points, well Road Teams have completely dominated in the young season. 11 Road Teams won this week. On the season, Road Teams are 50-42 (this does not include the 2 London games) that’s 54.3%. I guess we need to start calling it a Home Field Disadvantage.
- Cardinals Don’t Need A Coach – With Kliff Kingsbury home with Covid, QB Kyler Murray and the team went to CLE and dominated winning 37-14 bringing their record to 6-0.
Week 6 Wegs Index
- Bills 4-2 (2.00) – The Bills went for broke on MNF and lost, but they are still way up in the metrics – 1st in Yards Against, Points Against Scoring and Turnover Differential.
- Cardinals 6-0 (4.50) – CLE was no match, and now the Texans? 2nd Ranked Scoring D, Scoring and Turnover Differential. Yikes….
- Bucs 5-1 (7.17) – TB12 can’t cover in Prime Time (0-5 in last 5), but Bucs are doing their thing with the 3rd Rated Offense in Yards and Points Scored.
- Cowboys 5-1 (8.50) – The Boys did everything to lose to NE, but didn’t and covered the spread. Dak has a calf strain, but on Bye, he should get back. I need to mention, again, CB Trevon Diggs has 7 INTs and 2 TDs – that is a career for some guys.
- Rams 5-1 (9.17) – The Rams handled their business on the Road, they should dismantle DET. However, they are giving up a lot of yards. Jared Goff revenge game?
- Ravens 5-1 (9.83) – The Ravens lived dangerously prior to Week 6, and just crushed the NFL Darlings – the Chargers 34-6 rushing for 187 yards.
Marquee Match Ups in Week 7
Broncos at Browns (-3.5, 42.5 Total) Thursday, 10/21 at 7:20 PM Central – Both teams are coming off home losses, and I think the loser of this one will miss the playoffs. QB Baker Mayfield will miss the game with a dislocated shoulder, so Case Keenum will need to step up against a DEN D that has struggled in recent weeks. Let’s see if the Browns’ D redeems itself after facing top O’s in LAC and AZ. Browns win this one.
Bengals at Ravens (-6, 47 Total) Sunday, 10/24 at 12 Noon Central – It’s been a while since a Bengals game meant something. Well, this one at BAL means the AFC North lead is on the line. The Ravens have been winning tight ones. Both teams have been in 2 OT games, so I think this one will be closer than the spread shows. I like CIN +6.5.
Chiefs at Titans (+5.5, 56.5 Total) Sunday, 10/24 at 12 Noon Central – The Titans come off a huge MNF victory over Top Dog, Bills, and they get rewarded by hosting the Chiefs….. We all know who is getting the ball for TEN – King Henry (783 yards rushing – 260 more than the next leading rusher and 10 TDs – 2x the next rusher), but the Chiefs have had success in past seasons slowing him down. It should be another shoot out, as TEN has many injured CBs.
Byes: Bills, Chargers, Cowboys, Jags, Steelers, Vikings
Enjoy this week, despite the byes.
Wegs