NFL: 5 Things I Learned Week 4

The NFL is famous for the phrase, “Any Given Sunday,” for a reason. That was definitely true in Week 4.

5 Things I Learned

1. Maybe Rookie QBs Aren’t So Bad – After the first 3 weeks, the Rooks didn’t look great under center. Well, Week 4 we had a huge showing from really all of them. Jags’ Trevor Lawrence was running and throwing for a near upset over the Bengals on Thursday Night Football; Jets’ Zach Wilson led a come from behind victory over the heavily favored Titans; Bears’ Justin Fields went from the doghouse to the penthouse with several deep throws and a win over the Lions; 49ers’ Trey Lance had to jump in for the injured Garappolo and led 2 TD drives; and last but not least, Pats’ Mack Jones completed 19 straight passes against the Super Bowl Champs, the Bucs, to push TB12 and the gang to the brink on Sunday Night Football.
2. The Texans Are Bad – After a Week 1 win over the Jags, the Texans have completed become what we expected – the League’s worst team. This week, the Bills housed Houston 40-0 and it wasn’t even that close. The odds on #1 Pick now will be lucky to get another win this season.
3. The Saints Are Schizophrenic – One week, the Saints beat quality teams, the next they get blown out on the road or lose to an 0-3 team at home. This week, the Saints lose to the Giants in OT, but more importantly gave up 484 total yards. So much for the #2 rated Defense. Hard to know when to trust this team.
4. The Seahawks Own SF – Seattle probably should have been down big after having negative yardage through a quarter and a half. Despite being outgained almost 2 to 1 – 457 to 234 – the Seahawks now are 7-2 versus the Kyle Shanahan led 49ers.
5. Cowboys May Be Legit – I’m on record for hating Coach Mike McCarthy, but it hard to deny how the ‘Boys are playing on both sides of the ball. DAL’s Trevon Diggs intercepted Sam Darnold twice, as the Defense is playing at a good level to match that high octane offense.

Wegs Index – After Week 4 (Top 10)

A refresher on the Wegs Index – I take the following categories: Yards For, Yards Against, Points For, Points Against, Point Differential and Turnover Differential. I take the raw numbers and then produce a ranking based on their cumulative ranking in each of the 6 categories. The lower the number, the better the team.

1. Bills 3-1 (2.33) – Dominant on Defense (1st in both Yards and Points Against) and TO Differential (+7). They will tangle with the Chiefs.
2. Cardinals 4-0 (5.17) – The Cards are won the big showdown with the Rams, and Kyler Murray is leading the NFL’s best scoring offense.
3. Broncos 3-1 (9.17) – No Strength of Schedule component to the Wegs Index, so Denver could drop quickly as they play better teams plus Drew Lock at QB is a downgrade.
4. Panthers 3-1 (9.33) – Another team with a soft schedule, but they made it close at DAL in Week 4. CAR sports the 3rd best D in the NFL in Yards and Points Against.
5. Chargers 3-1 (9.33) – Big win over the Raider has vaulted them up the ratings. Probably should be 4-0.
6. Browns 3-1 (9.50) – Browns’ D has been great the last 2 weeks (2nd in Yards Against) and they’ve played the Chiefs, but QB Baker Mayfield has to play better.
7. Cowboys 3-1 (9.67) – DAL is tied for 1st in TO Differential to help that Top 4 Offense in Yards Gained.
8. Bucs 3-1 (11.17) – TB12 got it done in Foxboro, but the D is not good. 20th in Yards Against and 23rd in Points Against. They need to get healthy.
9. Ravens 3-1 (11.83) – Surprisingly poor on D prior to the Denver game, so still 19th in Yards Against, but still in Top 8 in Points Against.
10. Saints 2-2 (12.00) – Huge swings for this team mainly on Offense as NO is 28th in Yards Gained.

Q1 – Predictions Review

Through 4 games, I’ve picked 59.38% (38 of 64) correctly before the season started after a bounce back following a bad Week 1. I was able to predict 10 of the 32 (23.81%) teams’ records correctly at this stage. Some big surprises on the positive side, Panthers, Raiders and Bengals at 3-1, while Vikings and 49ers are 2 picks off my predictions. Still 14 Weeks to play, so a lot of football left.

Marquee Games from Week 5

• Rams at Seahawks (+2.5, 54.5 Total) – Thursday, October 7th at 7:20 PM Central – A high quality Thursday Night match up here. The Rams have been able to stymie the Russ Cooking class in the last few match ups, but SEA will have the 12th man rocking the stadium. I love the match up, and I love the Over even more in this one.
• Browns at Chargers (-1.5, 47 Total) – Sunday, October 10th at 3:05 PM Central – Two top flight AFC teams that are firmly in the playoff mix. The Browns’ D has been ballin’ the last 2 weeks, but can they slow down Herbert and the Chargers coming off their big game on Monday Night Football. I like the Browns in this one.
• Bills at Chiefs (-2.5, 56.5 Total) – Sunday, October 10th at 7:20 PM Central – A playoff rematch from 2020 which the Chiefs big boy’d them. In fact, that game was the lone Chiefs ATS cover until KC’s game at PHI this past week. The Bills after dropping their Week 1 match up against PIT, their D has been excellent, and QB Josh Allen is back at his elite 2020 form. I love the Chiefs, in general, but hard to back them in this one. Should be a laser light show on the scoreboard.

Let’s do this thing, again.

Wegs