NFL: 5 Things I Learned in Week 1

This season I’m going to try to simplify my posts on the NFL. Instead of getting in great details for Waiver Pick Ups and Trades for Fantasy Football or dig into my Wegs Index for the teams, I think I’ll share some basic observations each week. I’ll also focus on what to check out in the coming week with big match ups or games that should yield good insight. I will also review my predictions each month. Here goes the new format.

5 Things I Learned in Week 1

1. Most Defenses Are Not In Shape – With the exception of the Saints, Steelers and the Broncos, most Defenses around the league struggled to get off the field in the 4th Quarter. To me, this is indicative of players not being in Regular Season form yet. Teams like the Ravens, 49ers, Browns and Vikings blew leads or gave up big plays late in games to either lose or miss the all important cover. Offenses do have the advantage at the start of the year when the weather is nice and even hot, so I would expect Defenses to slowly improve as the season moves on.
2. Passing Is King In September – Another trend I’ve seen in Week 1 and in most early seasons is the NFL, which has become a passing league anyway, is even more so at the start of the season. Again, the weather is favorable, and teams just chuck it over and over again. Perhaps it is correlated with the comment I made on Defenses. However, I think another thing you see with teams – even run heavy teams like Cleveland, Tennessee and Baltimore, the Offenses are way more open than you see in November and December when physical dominance is more important.
3. Vegas Lines Are Not Dialed In Yet – Like most of us gamblers, we look to the lines to help us determine winners or at least which games will be close. Underdogs crushed this weekend with an 11-5 record Against the Spread (ATS) and 9-7 Straight Up (S/U). That is almost a complete opposite in a normal NFL week ATS and S/U. I would expect Vegas and other Bookmakers to tighten up lines as the season goes on. Look for another week of volatility.
4. The Saints May Be Better With Jameis – A bold take for sure, but as great as Drew Brees was in his career, the past 2 seasons he lacked the ability to throw down the field. Plus, Sean Payton has now won nearly every game when Brees has not started over the past 3 years. He steps up his preparation, and Jameis was able to make good throws including 5 TDs on just 20 attempts without turning it over. The Offensive and Defensive lines are really good, which translates to incredible results with the right QB.
5. The NFC West Is The Best Division in Football – I wrote this in the NFL Preview, but Week 1 reinforced it. The only division to go 4-0 on the week. Not only that, but the combined point differential was 65 points. In fact, the 4 teams played Chicago, Tennessee, Indianapolis and Detroit with only the Lions not being a playoff team in 2020. So, watch out if those teams stay healthy.

Games to Watch This Weekend

Bills at Dolphins (+3.5, 47.5 Total), 9/19 at 12 Noon Central on Fox – MIA can grab control of the AFC East early with back to back wins over the Patriots and now the Bills. Curious line here, as the Bills were stymied in Week 1 at home against PIT and MIA played well to win a close one in NE. The Bills will need to bounce back in a big way and get the pace of the game up, as MIA wants to grind games to crawl. I’d take those points on the Fins.

Chiefs at Ravens (+3.5, 55 Total), 9/19 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – This is the match up I’ve wanted to see in the playoffs the last two years, but KC has dominated the Ravens head to head in the past 2 season. The Ravens are coming off a loss in OT to the Raiders when they blew a huge lead. KC did what it does coming back versus the Browns. I don’t like the Ravens secondary without Marcus Peters. So, it’s hard for me to see BAL winning this one.

Cowboys at Chargers (-3, 55 Total), 9/19 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – The Cowboys threw the ball all over the yard agains the Champs, while the Chargers took advantage of a late fumble to squeak out a win at WAS. The Chargers D will need to play a lot better against the Boys. I don’t think they hold up, but this one should definitely be a shootout. I like the Over in this one.

Enjoy the Week 2 Action.

Wegs