As the days get a little shorter in the summer and the air changes in the Upper Midwest, my mind goes away from the beach to the grid iron. It’s time for some NFL action. I’ll do 2 NFL previews – AFC and NFC. Finally, I’ll do a Fantasy Football past just before the big draft day which is 8/28.
Let’s go to work.
AFC Preview
For these previews, I’ll preview each division by listing the Oddsshark Win Total, Bovada Odds to win the Super Bowl, Conference and Division, main departures/additions, schedule/record review with a prediction. With training camps wrapping up and pre-season in full swing, I think we have a decent idea what we are looking at for each squad.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: (Wins 10.5, SB +1200, AFC +575, DIV -150 ) The Bills are back on top of the AFC East, and they do not seem to have lost steam in the off season. They added Emmanuel Sanders at WR to along with Diggs and Beasley. QB Josh Allen was an MVP candidate in 2020. This could be the year for that honor. No major departures, so I think Coach McDermott’s group will win the division again. Prediction: 12-5 AFC East Winner.
Miami Dolphins: (Wins 9, SB +3500, AFC +1600, DIV +315) The Fins continued their upward trend under Coach Brian Flores in 2020. No reason they cannot continue to be tough. Additions at WR like Free Agent Will Fuller (who starts on suspension) and Rookie Jaylen Waddle should help QB Tua Tagaviola. However, can this extremely opportunistic Defense keep up that 2020 pace. I like the Fins. Prediction: 11-6 Wild Card Team.
New England Patriots: (Wins 9.5, SB +3000, AFC +1500, DIV +340) The Pats lost TB12 and with it a rare miss of the playoffs. Unfortunately, unless QB Cam Newton plays at the old MVP level, I do not see much of a difference this year. Rookie QB Mac Jones will sit and is not going to take this team farther than Cam anyway. So, regardless of the TE additions of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, who are both dealing with some injuries to start camp, I really don’t see the offense being good enough to run with either MIA or BUF in the division. Prediction 7-10 miss playoffs.
New York Jets: (Wins 6, SB +10000, AFC +5000, DIV +2000) Oh, the Jets. New Coach Robert Saleh will have this team playing harder than under Adam Gase, but the talent is just not there. Yes, they selected an exciting Rookie QB in Zach Wilson, but who will he throw to? Plus, I think the bigger issue is on defense. Saleh’s scheme in SF had 1st Round talent all over the D-Line, and the Jets are closer to the mid-20s in D-Line rankings. Free Agent Carl Lawson just tore his Achilles, which won’t help. It’s going to be a long year for the Jets, but maybe some flashes of the future with Wilson. Prediction 3-14 rough year.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: (Wins 10.5, SB +1400, AFC +650, DIV +115) The Ravens will have their work cut out for them to win the loaded AFC North. However, it is hard to argue with the talent on both sides of the ball. The key to their success will rest on the maturation of QB Lamar Jackson who can be electric. They did pick up WR Sammy Watkins from KC which can help, while Rookie WR Rashod Bateman has been injured in camp. However, Jackson’s passing and critical decision making need to be better than the playoff performances in 2019 and 2020. Still, I think Coach Harbaugh’s group is deep and has enough to hold off Cleveland for one more year. Prediction 12-5 Winner AFC North.
Cleveland Browns: (Wins 10, SB +1600, AFC +800, DIV +150) The Browns are close. Remember when the Browns were like the current Jets? Top picks for years and never hitting on them, well, that is over now. QB Baker Mayfield is a game manager plus player, which means he will make more plays than just the right one. The O-Line returns with a dominant group paving the way for both RB Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. I actually think if Beckham didn’t get hurt in 2020, then they could have beaten the Chiefs straight up. Let’s see if a healthy Browns team with a much improved defense can take it further. DE Myles Garrett will be the Defensive Player of the Year in 2021. Prediction: 11-6 Wild Card Team.
Pittsburgh Steelers: (Wins 8.5, SB +4000, AFC +, DIV +400) The Steelers got away from their identity in 2020. Yes, the D carried them to an early undefeated stretch, but the O-Line was awful. The Steelers did have some losses on that D with Bud Dupree leaving in Free Agency to the Titans. I do like the addition of Rookie RB Najee Harris, but the line needs to give him a shot and the new coordinator [] needs to mix it up. Big Ben cannot drop back 50 times a game again. I think the Steelers have one more playoff berth in them until Ben rides off into the sunset. Prediction: 10-7 Last Team In.
Cincinnati Bengals: (Wins 6.5, SB +10000, AFC +5500, DIV +2000) The Bengals would be a much closer contender to the playoffs if they didn’t have to play a playoff team every week in the division. Unfortunately, they need PIT or another division foe to falter. In the interim, QB Joe Burrow returns from the ACL injury on time, and they added Rookie WR Jamar Chase to catch his dimes. However, they need both the Defense to slow the opponents down some, so they have a chance to win some games. I don’t like that prospect, and I think passing on a top OT in the Draft will hurt them against the D-Lines of the AFC North. Better luck next year, Bengals. Prediction: 2-15 too harsh, but tough division.
AFC South
Tennessee Titans: (Wins 9, SB +2800, AFC +1400, DIV -115) The Titans should be able to win the AFC South this year. They have their offense rolling, and with the addition of WR Julio Jones to go opposite AJ Brown, the passing game will be balanced to their superior running attack. I am concerned that King Henry could wear down given his usage the past 2 seasons. However, if the Defense can be slightly better then this is another playoff berth for TEN – OLB Bud Dupree CB Janoris Jenkins will help. Prediction: 13-4 AFC South Winner.
Indianapolis Colts: (Wins 10, SB +4500, AFC +1400, DIV +150) The Colts seemed to make a huge splash in the off season with the trade for QB Carson Wentz. With Rivers retiring, they needed a capable and potentially play-making QB. However, Wentz got hurt immediately and his start of the season is in question. Plus, their top O-Lineman, Quentin Nelson, also has been out with injury. I don’t like that storyline, even though the Colts D is top flight. They will be good and competitive, but the AFC is loaded. I think they miss the playoffs this year, especially if IND can’t get Wentz out there early. Prediction: 9-8 Outside Looking In.
Jacksonville Jaguars: (Wins 6.5, SB +10000, AFC +5000, DIV +600) The Jags made huge changes in the off season. Coach Urban Meyer tries to work his magic in the pros, which is no easy feat. With the #1 Pick, he picked much hyped Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence was the #1 Pick the day he left HS, so I think he is the real deal. He is probably the biggest prospect since Andrew Luck to come into the NFL. However, there is not a ton to work with in Jacksonville. Meyer also selected Lawrence’s running mate in the backfield, RB Travis Etienne, who could be electric in space. Still, the Jags lack depth on the O-Line and on D. They will be better than last year, but not a whole lot better. Prediction: 4-13 Mild Improvement.
Houston Texans: (Wins 4.5, SB +30000, AFC +10000, DIV +2500) Oh, the Texans, probably the biggest downslide I’ve seen a team do in 18 months ever. It all started with the stupid trade of De’Andre Hopkins to AZ and eventual firing of Coach Bill O’Brien. Now, the scandal surrounding QB Deshaun Watson (which honestly disappoints me so much) clouds the future of the franchise. New Coach Dave Culley will try to steady a quickly sinking ship, as Watson is not suspended yet. Still, this roster is hot garbage. The Texans will likely have the worst record in the NFL this season. Prediction: 2-15 Top 3 Pick.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: (Wins 12.5, SB +500, AFC +250, DIV -275) The Chiefs had a shot at back to back Super Bowl victories, but late injuries on the O-Line showed up in a big way in the big game. Do we really think that the Bucs exposed the Chiefs’ weaknesses? I don’t think so. The Chiefs have tried to completely revamp that O-Line with signing veterans like OT Orlando Brown (trade from BAL), Joe Thuney at OG from NE, and draft picks Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith, which is really wise given the investment in QB Patrick Mahomes. I think the Chiefs have one more year with this current group to make it to the top before the contracts start to catch up to them. Prediction: 13-4 AFC West Winner.
Los Angeles Chargers: (Wins 9, SB +3000, AFC +1700, DIV +500) Yep, I’m just a sucker for the Bolts. Every year I think this is the one, and this year is no different. The Chargers fired Coach Anthony Lynn, and honestly, it was a must. This team is too talented to lose very single week by less than 6 points. It seemed like they blew 2nd half leads in every loss. So, with new Coach Brandon Staley, the whiz kid behind the Rams D last year and the Vic Fangio tree, will bring order and better decision making to this team. That along with another year for QB Justin Herbert at the helm with a healthy DE Joey Bosa, sign me up for a potential playoff run. They also drafted Rookie LT Rashawn Slater to protect Herbert. If this team was in the NFC, then it would be a given. However, I still have them just on the outside with PIT in as team one win away from the playoffs. Prediction: 9-8 Near Miss Playoffs.
Denver Broncos: (Wins 8.5, SB +4000, AFC +1100, DIV +500) Denver is one of those teams that could swing high or low in this loaded AFC. I do like their Defense a lot, but I’m still not behind either QB Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater. If they had landed Aaron Rodgers in the off season, then the outlook would have changed to Super Bowl contender. So, like the Raiders, I think they will be around .500 and no better given the depth of the conference. Prediction 9-8 Another Near Miss.
Las Vegas Raiders: (Wins 7, SB +7000, AFC +4000, DIV +1600) The Raiders have tried to assemble talent on both sides of the ball with all the Khalil Mack picks, but in my view, they have squandered their chance. They drafted Rookie RT Alex Leatherwood this year. Sure, they have a solid group, but they lack the pure playmakers and I’m still not sold on QB Derek Carr under center. The Raiders caved down the stretch, and I think that is a combination of them not playing good D and teams figuring out their scheme. The Raiders will be right in the middle of the pack, but no better missing the playoffs yet again. Prediction: 8-9 Tough Division.
Playoff Picture
Wild Cards:
7 Steelers at 2Titans – Titans Win.
6 Browns at 3 Ravens – Browns Win.
5 Dolphins at 4 Bills – Bills Win.
Divisional Round
4 Bills at 1 Chiefs – Chiefs Win.
6 Browns at 2 Titans – Browns Win.
Championship Round
6 Browns at 1 Chiefs – Chiefs Win.
AFC Champ: Kansas City Chiefs – I believe in Mahomes and Andy Reid to figure it out. Yes, it will be tough to hold off the ascending Bills and Browns, but I think they can do it again this year.
More on the NFC and Super Bowl Winner soon.
Wegs