We are finally here. One year ago the most entertaining 3 weeks in sports was put on pause like the rest of our lives. This year, the NCAA has done what they could to give us what we crave – March Madness. With the field set, let’s take a deeper dive into filling out that bracket.
Basic Overview
2021 is going to be a tournament like no other. I went over the Schedule and general format in a prior post.
Unlike most years, the 68 teams that make up the field have to meet the new COVID protocol. Teams had to self-isolate prior to going to Indianapolis (where all games are to be held) and have 2 negative tests. Then, they are cleared to travel to the venue. Each team also has to have players be COVID-free for 7 straight days to have a player play in a game. Teams can technically play a game if they have 5 players eligible to play on a given day.
However, if a team cannot meet the protocols, then there are 4 teams on Stand By (Louisville, Colorado State, St. Louis and Ole Miss in that order), that could replace any of the teams in the tournament. Those teams will need to step in immediately. However, after the first official round, then replacement is not allowed.
So, if all goes well, the 68 teams who are in now will continue to play, but if not then up to 72 could have a shot to win the National Championship.
Regional Analysis
I’m going to go through each region and lay out the teams I think are the Top Teams to watch. I’ll also list Double Digit seeds that have a legit chance to pull off that first round upset, and finally who I think will make the Elite Eight. After all the regions, then I’ll list my Final Four and eventual Champion.
West Region
The Teams
- 1 Zags vs. 16 Norfolk State/Appalachian State (First 4 Winner)
- 8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Missouri
- 5 Creighton vs. 12 UC Santa Barbara
- 4 Virginia vs. 13 Ohio
- 6 USC vbs. 11 Wichita State/Drake (First 4 Winner)
- 3 Kansas vs. 14 Eastern Washington
- 7 Oregon vs. 10 VCU
- 2 Iowa vs. 15 Grand Canyon
Teams to Watch
The Favorite
The #1 Zags are the prohibitive favorite not just for the West Region, but to cut down the nets and win it all. Hard to argue with that, as they are 1st in Offense and 10th in Defense in Kenpom. They have 3 incredible players in Corey Kispert, Drew Timme and the stellar frosh guard, Jalon Suggs. However, they have not played the same schedule as the Power 6 conference teams. A non-Power 6 team has not won the NCAA title since UNLV did it in 1990. Plus, the Zags would have to go the entire season undefeated which hasn’t been done since 1976 by the Indiana Hoosiers. So, they are against those big overall trends.
Other Top Squads
#2 Iowa has the Player of the Year, Luka Garza, but their defense (50th in Ken Pom) will cost them a deep run in my opinion. #3 Kansas played well in the 2nd half of Big 12 play, but they had to opt out of the Big 12 Tournament with their big man, David McCormick getting COVID and he will likely miss at least the first game. They can still advance, but most teams struggle off of COVID pauses. #4 Virginia also opted out of the ACC Tournament, so they are a big risk and will not even travel to Indy until Friday. So, they are even an upset risk. I think the bigger threats could come out of the lesser thought of PAC 12 Conference – #6 USC had a really good season, and they have the super frosh Evan Mobley – a Top 5 NBA prospect, while #7 Oregon is fully healthy now, and Chris Duarte is a legit player. I like them to make some noise in the region more than the 2-4 seeds.
Potential Upsets
#13 Ohio will be a real threat to the defending champ #4 Virginia. COVID pause aside, as mentioned above, the Bobcats have a legit player in Guard, Jason Preston who does it all – 16.6 Points, 7.2 assists and 1.6 steals per game.
#14 Eastern Washington is also going to be a tough match up for #3 Kansas given their pause. Plus the Eagles score 78 points per game. So, the Jayhawks who’s D is excellent better be ready to defend.
Elite Eight
I see the Zags waltzing into the Elite Eight, and the other half is pretty wide open. Iowa is certainly good, but I think a dark horse arises in USC.
The Zags will take the region.
East Region
The Teams
- 1 Michigan vs. 16 Mt. St. Mary’s/Texas Southern (First 4 Winner)
- 8 LSU vs. 9 St. Bonaventure
- 5 Colorado vs. 12 Georgetown
- 4 Florida State vs. 13 UNC Greensboro
- 6 BYU vs. 11 Michigan State/UCLA (First 4 Winner)
- 3 Texas vs. 14 Abilene Christian
- 7 UConn vs. 10 Maryland
- 2 Alabama vs. 15 Iona
Top Teams
The Favorite
#1 Michigan may be the top seed, but with the injury to Isaiah Livers, they are vulnerable. Metrics are incredible – 6th on Offense and 7th on Defense, so the pressure goes to big man, Hunter Dickinson to score. Coach Juwan Howard needs to get someone else to step up if they want to advance to the 2nd weekend.
Other Top Teams
#2 Alabama has had their best season in almost 20 years with Coach Nate Oates at the helm behind their 2nd rated Defense. However, they do not have the experience I like to see. #3 Texas is a definite contender and a darling pick of a lot of ESPN experts. Hard to argue with the way they ran through the Big 12 Tournament, and Guard Andrew Jones got hot, while big man, Jericho Sims spearheaded the defense. #4 Florida State is always a tough out of the NCAA Tournament. Coach Leonard Hamilton has his guys ready to go, and they did lose to GA Tech in the ACC Title Game, but I like his approach in March. I also like #7 UConn who has been a different team with Guard James Bouknight back in the lineup. The Huskies are 16th overall in Ken Pom, which makes them a real threat to Alabama at the bottom of the Region.
Potential Upsets
#11 Michigan State had to play their way in to the tournament, and they beat 3 Top 10 teams in a week. They have to survive the First Four match up against UCLA, but if they do, then #6 BYU is ripe for the upset. An 11 Seed has advanced to the Round of 32 very often since the inception of the First Four, and Sparty is the team with the profile to do it.
#12 Georgetown is a darling upset pick given their run to the Big East Tournament title, however I’m not sure Colorado is their best match up. I would go with the Buffs there, but I understand the Hoya appeal.
#15 Iona is a team to watch. Coach Rick Pitino has now taken his 5th team to the NCAA Tournament, and this Gaels team has experience. They had COVID issues not once, but twice, then they ran the table in the MAAC Tourney. They may not beat #2 Alabama, but don’t be surprised if this game is dicey late.
Elite Eight
This will be the Region that is more wide open than the rest. Michigan will get knocked off, so I’m not sure if it will be #4 Florida State in the Sweet Sixteen or in this round. I’m going to predict the Wolverines get knocked off by the Noles. Putting Florida State against #3 Texas in the bottom half. Honestly, this could be Bama or Uconn, too. I haven’t finalized my pick yet, but Texas is as good as any.
This is my least certain pick, but I’ll put Texas in the Final Four.
South Region
The Teams
- 1 Baylor vs. 16 Hartford
- 8 UNC vs. Wisconsin
- 5 Villanova vs. 12 Winthrop
- 4 Purdue vs. 13 North Texas
- 6 Texas Tech vs. 11 Utah State
- 3 Arkansas vs. 14 Colgate
- 7 Florida vs. 10 VA Tech
- 2 Ohio State vs. 15 Oral Roberts
The Favorite
#1 Seed Baylor has been the 2nd best team in America virtually all year. The guards are dominant – MaCio Teague, Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell. 3rd in Offense in KenPom, while their Defense has fallen off since the COVID pause to 44th. Still Baylor has been consistent, and guards do help deep runs in the Tournament.
Other Top Teams
#2 Ohio State almost ran the table in the Big Ten Tournament after 4 straight losses at the end of the regular season behind big man, EJ Liddell and Guard, Duane Washington. The main issue is their D which is 79th in KenPom. #3 Arkansas, if it survives its first match up could make a deep run, as they have been red hot (9 straight wins) prior to their SEC Tournament loss to LSU. #4 Purdue also went on a late season run in the Big Ten, before losing in OT to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. So, this region is filled with teams playing their best late.
Potential Upsets
#12 Winthrop drew #5 Villanova, which Nova lost their Point Guard, Collin Gillespie in their regular season finale. That led to a quick out in the Big East Tournament. The Eagles have a baller in Chandler Vaudrin, and average 79.5 Points Per Game. Coach Jay Wright is going to have to rally his troops to make it to the 2nd Round.
#13 Colgate hasn’t played a lot of teams this year, but they too fill it up. So, their match up against #3 Arkansas should be a fun watch. Both teams could score 90+.
#8 North Carolina vs. #1 Baylor – yeah, maybe I’m a sucker for the Blue Bloods, but assuming UNC knocks off the struggling Badgers, the frontline of the Heels is no joke. Baylor is the class of the Region, but they have the worst match up in the 2nd Round of the 4 #1 seeds.
Elite Eight
Despite my concern with UNC, I think #1 Baylor will get to the Elite Eight, despite the toughest road of any #1 in my view (Purdue is no joke either). The question is who will they face. Again, I think Coach Eric Musselman will get his team past the Colgate threat, and then roll even against the Buckeyes to get to the Elite Eight.
Baylor will get to the Final Four.
Midwest Region
The Teams
- 1 Illinois vs. 16 Drexel
- 8 Loyola vs. 9 GA Tech
- 5 Tennessee vs. 12 Oregon State
- 4 OK State vs. 13 Liberty
- 6 San Diego State vs. 11 Syracuse
- 3 West Virginia vs. 14 Morehead State
- 7 Clemson vs. 10 Rutgers
- 2 Houston vs. Cleveland State
The Favorite
#1 Illinois is the Big Ten Tournament Champ, and they are at the top of KenPom in both Offense (7th) and Defense (5th). Plus, they have a super hero in Ayo Dosunmo at Guard, and a beast in the middle in Kofi Cockburn. I’m a bit of a homer with Illinois being from Chicago, but they are legit.
Other Top Teams
#2 Houston is the most dangerous team no one is talking about. Coach Kelvin Sampson has his team at 8th on Offense and 16th on Defense, which means you are in for it against them. #3 West Virginia has been one of my favorite teams this season, but their seeding is off here. #4 Oklahoma State should have been the 3 Seed, since they beat WVU twice this year, including last week in the Big 12 Tournament. Plus, the Cowboys have the #1 NBA Prospect in Cade Cunningham, who is trying to do his best Carmelo Anthony imitation winning the NCAA Tournament as a Freshman as a one and done. I also love #6 San Diego State in this region. The Mountain West Champ has been en fuego winning 14 games in a row.
Potential Upsets
#12 Oregon State followed the Hoyas in going from nowhere to conference tournament champs in the PAC 12. The Beavers did it by winning close games down the stretch, while #5 Tennessee has limped into the Tournament. Certainly, the Vols should win, but the Beavers are the hotter team.
#13 Morehead State won the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament knocking off perennial power, Belmont. The Eagles should be able to score against the less than stellar #4 Mountaineers D (65th in KenPom). It is going to be a sweat.
Elite Eight
#1 Illinois has to beat some conference tournament champs to get there – either Loyola (hometown rival) or GA Tech who is also red hot. Then, likely OK State who is going to showcase some great talent, but I think Illinois is better. On the other side, I see a Houston vs. San Diego State match up, which Houston should win. Setting up a grind ’em out game Illinois vs. Houston.
Illinois will win this region.
Final Four Predictions
The Committee didn’t do it on purpose, but they definitely gave Gonzaga a plum draw. With Michigan likely to fall given the Livers injury their match up against a lower seeded team should be a win.
I like Gonzaga to reach the Title game over 3 seeded Texas out of the East for their 2nd appearance in the past 4 years.
The other game will be a real show. Both #1 Seeds – Illinois and Baylor will be showcasing a high level of talent on the floor. Both teams emerged from the 2 best conferences in my view this year in the Big Ten and Big 12. Who will win?
I like Illinois to win this game. Ayo and Kofi should provide the one-two punch that is able to hurt the Baylor defense, and as good as the Baylor guards have been, the Illinois guards are nearly as good. Besides Ayo, Frazier and Curbelo are excellent at both ends. I also think that Illinois has the better depth, if this one gets physical. With all that said, I do think this will be the best game of the tournament.
Title Game
It seems like everyone is picking Gonzaga, and I understand why. They have some great players, and Jalen Suggs versus Ayo is going to be a fun watch. However, I think Illinois is going to be too physical inside for Timme and the Zags bigs. Over the course of the 40 minutes, that size and strength will wear down the high flying Zags. It should be an incredible game, but I think Coach Brad Underwood will be cutting down the nets, as the Zags will fall just short yet again.
Illinois will be the NCAA Champ.
So, those are my takes, but sometimes picking based on colors and mascots is better than analysis. No matter what Pool you are in or who you root for, let’s all be thankful that the NCAA is giving us back March Madness – the best part of the year.
Enjoy it!
Wegs