We are exactly one week away from Selection Sunday for the NCAA Tournament. For most teams across the country, this week will make or break teams on the Bubble. Let’s look at these teams and what they will have to do to get in.
What is the Bubble?
If you read last week’s article, then I laid out how many teams make the Big Dance. By Sunday afternoon (and mostly by Saturday night), all the Auto-Bids will be set. Then, the NCAA Selection Committee has to take the time to review metrics, resumes and discuss which At Large Bids will be given out. In most year’s, the Bubble is approximately 15 teams that are right on the edge of being the last teams selected for roughly 8 spots. Some Bubble Teams need to win at least one conference tournament game to solidify their position, while others need a deep run and wins over better teams to get in. The other factor is if teams in the Mid-Major Conferences who were expected to win fall in their tournament, which opens the door for even more teams to be considered.
2021 Bubble Teams
I’ll list the teams in the NET Rankings order. The NCAA Selection Committee has created a metric known as the NET Rankings, which is a starting point. However, since the NET has its flaws and COVID has skewed the rankings, I will list Ken Pom’s rating along with Strength of Schedule, Big Wins, Bad Losses for more discussion.
Maryland (15-12, 9-11 in Big Ten) – NET 32, KP 28, SOS 19 – Big Wins: at Wisconsin, at Illinois, Bad Losses: at Northwestern, vs. Penn State. The Terps have followed a hot streak with 2 bad losses. They will need to get work done in the Big Ten Tournament. They should be in the Field with one win, but another bad loss will bounce them.
VCU (19-6, 10-4 in A10) – NET 35, KP 43, SOS 77 – Big wins: None, Bad Losses: vs. Rhode Island, vs. George Mason. The Rams went down in the A10 Tournament Title game, so I think they should be in the field. Their metrics are strong, but overall the A10 is down this year.
Georgia Tech (15-8, 11-6 in ACC) – NET 38, KP 32, SOS 41 – Big Wins: vs. Florida State, Bad Losses: vs. Georgia State, vs. Mercer. The Yellow Jackets are playing good basketball down the stretch. I think they are in, especially with a win in the ACC Quarters.
North Carolina (16-9, 10-6 in ACC) – NET 39, KP 31, SOS 21 – Big Wins: vs. Florida State, Bad Losses: vs. Marquette. The Heels should be in The Dance, but don’t be fooled, the ACC isn’t what is has been historically. A win in the 2nd Round vs. the Wake/ND winner should solidify the bid.
Drake (25-4, 15-3 in MVC) – NET 40, KP 53, SOS 129 – Big Wins: vs. Loyola, Bad Losses: at Valpo. Drake may be in given their metrics. However, they road that unbeaten streak deep into the season, but since they have dropped some games. Loyola has beaten them 2 out of 3 times, and it took OT to beat the Ramblers the one time. I think they get in.
Boise State (18-7, 14-6 in MWC) – NET 42, KP 56, SOS 95 – Big Wins: at BYU, Bad Losses: vs. Fresno State. The Broncos have hit the skids. They need a deep run in the MWC Tournament to get back on the right side of the Bubble.
Utah State (18-7, 15-4 in MWC) – NET 47, KP 45, SOS 99 – Big Wins: vs. San Diego State (2x), Bad Losses: vs. South Dakota State, at UNLV. The Aggies are one of 3 teams in the MWC that need to go deep. They are looking up at Colorado State in the standings. They will need to knock off CSU in the Semis to get in, and effectively steal their spot. I do not think all 3 of these Bubble MWC teams will get in the Field.
Syracuse (15-8, 9-7 in ACC) – NET 49, KP 54, SOS 54 – Big Wins: vs. North Carolina, vs. Clemson, Bad Losses: vs. Pitt. The Orangemen are a middling team in a weak ACC to me. I know they are a tradition power and have made noise in the tournament more often than not, but unless they get to the ACC Semis or deeper, which means a win over NC State in the 2nd round and a great game vs. Virginia.
Colorado State (17-5, 14-4 in MWC) – NET 50, KP 60, SOS 105 – Big Wins: at San Diego State, Bad Losses: None. My Rams haven’t made the Dance since 2013, so they are on the verge. The Rams took a tough loss at the buzzer at Nevada which put them squarely on the Bubble. They have to beat Utah State in the Semis to make sure they earn the bid.
Ole Miss (15-10, 10-8 in SEC) – NET 52, KP 50, SOS 66 – Big Wins: vs. Tennessee, Bad Losses: at Dayton, vs. Wichita State. The Rebels are not an NCAA Tournament team to me. Yes, the SEC is a good conference, but with a lack of marquee wins, I think they need to get to the Semis to have a shot a the Dance and more like the Final.
Memphis (15-7, 11-4 in AAC) – NET 53, KP 40, SOS 96 – Big wins: None, Bad Losses: at Western Kentucky, vs. Tulsa, at Tulsa. The Tigers are a very good basketball team, but their SOS will hurt them. Losing at the buzzer to HOU today was a tough blow. That win could have got them in the Dance. I’m an advocate for them making the Big Dance, but now they will need to get to the AAC Title Game to solidify their bid by beating HOU in the Semis.
SMU (11-4, 7-4 in AAC) – NET 54, KP 51, SOS 76 – Big Wins: None, Bad Losses: None. The Mustangs have not played a lot this year. So, I do not like them making the Dance, but they are right in the mix. They need to get to the AAC Title Game to get in from my view, which means beating Wichita State.
Xavier (13-7, 6-7 in Big East) – NET 56, KP 59, SOS 59 – Big Wins: vs. Oklahoma, Bad Losses: at Marquette. The Musketeers are a special COVID case. They have only played 20 games to date, so the metrics aren’t as complete as other teams. They need to get to the Semis in the Big East Tournament to get in.
Seton Hall (13-12, 10-9 in Big East) – NET 57, KP 55, SOS 28 – Big Wins: at UConn, Bad Losses: at Rhode Island, at Georgetown. The Pirates are not a tournament team to me. They have lost 4 straight, and unless they take out a weakened Nova in the Big East Tournament, I don’t think they get in.
Indiana (12-14, 7-12 in Big Ten) – NET 60, KP 39, SOS 4 – Big Wins: at Iowa, vs. Iowa, Bad Losses: vs. Northwestern, . The Hoosiers have been on a major slide of late. So, they are on the wrong side of Bubble at this point. They will need to win at least 2 games to get in and probably get to the Semis in the Big Ten Tournament.
Wichita State (15-4, 11-2 in AAC) – NET 65, KP 72, SOS 88 – Big wins: vs. HOU, Bad Losses: None. The Shockers are shown as in by both Jerry Palm and Joe Lundardi, but their metrics are not great. They are in 1st Place with a couple of games short of other teams in their conference. Wichita State will have the easiest path to the Title vs. SMU instead of Memphis, so they will likely stay in the Field.
Michigan State (15-11, 9-11 in Big Ten) – NET 72, KP 61, SOS 16 – Big Wins: vs. Illinois, vs Ohio State, vs. Michigan, Bad Losses: at Northwestern. Sparty is a classic Bubble Team in a top conference. Those marquee wins are hard to ignore, and MSU has made the tournament for 23 years running. I do think an early round loss in the Big Ten Tournament would knock them out, even with the 3 impressive Top 5 wins. Still 1 and for sure 2 Big Ten Tourney wins will get them in the Field for their 24th year running.
Alright, let’s get this Field Set. Check back for my Tourney Preview after Selection Sunday.
Wegs