March Madness is here! With the turning of the calendar it is time to start the Madness. I’ll layout all you need to know and pay attention to in the next 2 plus weeks as we start my favorite time of year.
Conference Tournament Schedules
Before we hit the Big Dance, we need the conferences to punch the Automatic bids. Now, this year, the Ivy League is not sending a representative. Normally, there are 32 auto-bids, but this year there will be just 31. That means the “At Large” bids that go to teams that are selected based on their resume has increased from 36 to 37 this year. Now, the NCAA has left it up to the conferences to determine who will be given the automatic bids. So, it may not be the Conference Tournament winners. However, traditionally, that is how it is done. For smaller conference teams that have dominant regular seasons, a slip up in the conference tournament can be devastating as they miss the Big Dance.
Smaller/Mid-Major Conferences
| League | Start Date | Team to Beat |
| American East | Saturday, 2/27 | UMBC Terriers |
| Atlantic Sun | Thursday, 3/4 | Liberty Flames |
| Big Sky | Monday, 3/8 | Eastern Washington Eagles |
| Big South | Saturday, 2/27 | Winthrop Eagles |
| Big West | Tuesday, 3/9 | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos |
| Colonial Athletic Association | Saturday, 3/6 | James Madison Dukes |
| Conference USA | Tuesday, 3/9 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
| Horizon League | Thursday, 2/25 | Wright State Raiders |
| Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference | Saturday, 2/27 | Siena Saints |
| Mid-American Conference | Thursday, 3/11 | Toledo Rockets |
| Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference | Sunday, 3/7 | NC A&T Aggies |
| Northeastern Conference | Saturday, 3/6 | Bryant Bulldogs |
| Ohio Valley Conference | Wednesday, 3/3 | Belmont Bruins |
| Patriot League | Wednesday, 3/3 | Colgate Raiders |
| Southern Conference | Friday, 3/5 | UNC Greensboro Spartnas |
| Southland Conference | Wednesday, 3/10 | Abilene Christian Wildcats |
| Southwestern Athletic Conference | Wednesday, 3/10 | Prairie View A&M Panthers |
| Summit League | Saturday, 3/6 | South Dakota Sioux |
| Sun Belt Conference | Friday, 3/5 | Texas State Bobcats |
| Western Athletic Conference | Wednesday, 3/10 | Grand Canyon Antelopes |
Mid-Major Multi-Bid Conferences
| Conference | Start Date | Potential Teams |
| American Athletic Conference | Thursday, 3/11 | Houston, Memphis and Wichita State |
| Atlantic 10 Conference | Wednesday, 3/10 | St. Bonaventure, VCU and St. Louis |
| Missouri Valley Conference | Thursday, 3/4 | Loyola and Drake |
| Mountain West Conference | Wednesday, 3/10 | San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State and Colorado State |
| West Coast Conference | Thursday, 3/4 | Gonzaga and BYU |
Power 6 Conferences
| Conference | Start Date | Number of Potential Teams |
| Atlantic Coast Conference | Tuesday, 3/9 | Up to 6 Teams |
| Big 12 Conference | Wednesday, 3/10 | Up to 7 Teams |
| Big East Conference | Wednesday, 3/10 | Up to 5 Teams |
| Big Ten Conference | Wednesday, 3/10 | Up to 7 Teams |
| Pacific 12 Conference | Wednesday, 3/10 | Up to 5 Teams |
| Southeastern Conference | Wednesday, 3/10 | Up to 6 Teams |
NCAA Tournament Schedule
The Big Dance is a little different this year with COVID. First of all, all the games will be played in Indianpolis. Much like the NBA Bubble, the NCAA has opted to keep teams in the same area, but they are using the various arenas in the Indy area to get all teams to stick as close to the regular schedule as possible.
| Selection Sunday | Sunday, March 13th |
| First Four Games | Thursday, March 18th (This is a big change to one day) |
| First Round | Friday, March 19th and Saturday March 20th (A shift by one day) |
| Second Round | Sunday, March 21st and Monday, March 22nd (A shift by one day) |
| Sweet Sixteen | Saturday, March 27th and Sunday, March 28th (A big change to the weekend) |
| Elite Eight | Monday, March 29th and Tuesday, March 30th (A big change to Monday and Tuesday) |
| Final Four | Saturday, April 3rd (normal schedule) |
| Championship | Monday, April 5th (normal schedule) |
Over the next 2 weeks, with all the conference tournaments you will have the chance to see so many teams. I’m going to direct you to the teams to watch today. Next week before the larger conference tournaments, I’ll review the “Bubble” teams and what they will have to do make the dance.
The Contenders
These are the 3 odds on favorites to win the title.
Gonzaga (24-0) Ken Pom Rating – 1, Offense – 1, Defense – 10, SOS – 36 – Top Players: Corey Kispert, Drew Timme and Jalen Suggs. The Zags could have their best team ever in Spokane. The offense is the best in the country, and the size and depth of the team makes them the favorite. The main pause is the strength of schedule, as the Zag haven’t played a close game in 2 months.
Michigan (18-1) Ken Pom Rating – 2, Offense – 5, Defense – 4, SOS – 9 – Top Players: Hunter Dickinson, Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner. Michigan was able to not miss a beat with a lengthy COVID pause in late January. Now, the team to watch is the Wolverines in March.
Baylor (18-1) Ken Pom Rating – 3, Offense – 4, Defense – 16, SOS – 15 – Top Players: Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell. Baylor was the clear #2 team in the country all year with superior guard play. However, with 2 weeks off in February, the Bears have struggled coming back and dropping from the ranks of the unbeaten. Can they regain their form in the Big 12 Tournament?
Possible Final Four Team
These teams have all the tools to get to the final weekend.
Ohio State (18-7) Ken Pom Rating – 7, Offense – 3, Defense – 87, SOS – 7 – Top Players: EJ Liddell and Duane Washington. Very good Offensive team with Liddell in the middle, but their D is really quite bad. If they face a tough Defensive team, they could struggle.
Illinois (18-6) Ken Pom Rating – 6, Offense – 9, Defense – 17, SOS – 5 – Top Players: Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Illinois is finally back in the fold. With a great guard and one of the strongest big men in the country, they should be a tough out.
Iowa (18-7) Ken Pom Rating – 5, Offense – 2, Defense – 81, SOS – 2 – Top Players: Luka Garza and Joe Wisekamp. Garza is the likely Player of the Year, but their lack of Defense will be an achilles heel in March.
Houston (19-3) Ken Pom Rating – 4, Offense – 11, Defense – 5, SOS – 77 – Top Players: Quentin Grimes and Marucs Sasser. Not enough people have seen Houston play, but they are excellent at both ends. Kelvin Sampson has his best team since his arrival.
Potential Dark Horses
These are teams that are just as good as the Top 7 teams, but will not be as highly regarded with potential.
Alabama (19-6) Ken Pom Rating – 9, Offense – 38, Defense – 3, SOS – 21 – Top Player: Jaden Shackelford. The Crimson Tide can play really good D and shoot the ball from deep. That is a good recipe in most games, but they do struggle against very good rebounding teams.
Arkansas (19-5) Ken Pom Rating – 17, Offense – 32, Defense – 14, SOS – 43 – Top Player: Moses Moody. The Razorbacks have won 10 straight now, as Eric Musselman has his team believing the Final Four is possible. They are my favorite team in this group.
West Virginia (17-6) Ken Pom Rating – 18, Offense – 10, Defense – 55, SOS – 14 – Top Players: Miles McBride and Derek Culver. West Virginia is known for its defense under Bob Huggins, but this Mountaineers squad can score. They have been in a lot of close games in the Big 12, so I think they are battle tested for March.
Kansas (18-8) Ken Pom Rating – 19, Offense – 50, Defense – 9, SOS – 3 – Top Player: Ochai Agbaji, but 5 players average double figures. KU was a middling team in the Big 12 3 weeks ago, but give Bill Self credit, he has turned this team around and mostly at the defensive end. They could be dangerous in the Big Dance.
Potential Cinderellas
These are teams that may not be traditional powers or even known that could make some noise in March.
San Diego State (19-4) Ken Pom Rating – 20, Offense – 52, Defense – 8 – SOS – 88 – Top Players: Matt Mitchell and Jordan Schakel. he Aztecs are on a tear. Once sitting in 5th in the Mountain West, they have ascended quickly and are metrically as good as anyone in the Top 25. They will likely be under-seeded in 2 weeks and could make a Sweet 16 run.
Loyola (21-4) Ken Pom Rating – 11, Offense – 68, Defense – 1 – SOS – 107 – Top Player: Cameron Krutwig. The Ramblers are back to playing incredible basketball. Maybe not the miracle team of 3 seasons ago, but their defense is elite and will stymie big conference opponents. Definitely a Sweet 16 possible team.
Belmont (24-3) Ken Pom Rating – 84, Offense – 61, Defense – 133, SOS – 234 – Top Player: Nick Muszunski. The Bruins are the class of the Ohio Valley and were rolling until some recent stumbles. They will be a popular pick to get a big upset or 2 in March.
Enjoy it while it lasts.
Wegs