It’s Super Bowl Sunday!! After literally ten of thousands of COVID tests, rescheduling of games, and wacky scenarios, we have arrived at the biggest game of any year. Plus, we have a game worthy of such a difficult and entertaining season.
The Teams
Tampa Bay Bucs
Well, despite my poor prognostication, the Bucs did it. After losing to the Chiefs in Week 12, Tampa has rolled off 7 straight wins including knocking off their division rivals – New Orleans – sending Drew Brees into retirement and the 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Tom Brady has successfully led this young team to the big game and his 10th Super Bowl appearance and a chance to achieve his 7th NFL Title. The Bucs would be the first true Wild Card team to win the Title since the 2010 Packers.
The Bucs have transformed this Defense into a top unit. Tampa is #1 against the run in the NFL, and that has continued in the playoffs. Now, DC Todd Bowles likes to blitz most QBs, but he may reconsider given the opponent. Plus, in the playoffs, they have scored an incredible 41 points off of turnovers in their Wild Card run to the Super Bowl. The pass rush with DEs Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul getting it done, plus big man, DT Vita Vea back in the fold. However, the real play maker on this D is LB Devin White. He will be key in this game.
The Offense is really more balanced in the playoffs than during the year. They score 30.8 PPG mostly with Brady hitting the many weapons through the air – WR Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and even Antonio Brown, but now with RB Leonard Fournette playing at his peak level all season to give them a more physical approach.
Kansas City Chiefs
The defending Super Bowl Champs have been the class of the league all year. The Chiefs were on cruise control after a Week 5 loss to the Raiders reeling off 9 straight wins until their Week 17 loss with most of their starters on the sideline. Most games they were in control, but they did not blow anyone out seemingly letting their opponents hang around or comeback. The Chiefs are trying to become the first team to win back to back Super Bowls since Brady and the Patriots did it in the 2003 and 2004 Seasons (2005 Super Bowl – XXXIX).
The Chiefs are led by their Offense. QB Patrick Mahomes is 25 years old and the youngest player to reach his 2nd Super Bowl in NFL history. After leading the team to the #1 Offense in yards on the season, the Chiefs avoided a major upset when Mahomes got knocked out against the Browns in the Divisional Round. In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs obliterated the Bills as the offense was on another level. The speed on the outside with WR Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and TE Travis Kelce, there are not a lot of teams that have an answer. Although, the Chiefs have key injuries at both Offensive Tackle positions and even a Guard from earlier this year, plus they do not really run the ball a lot. RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the rookie, has finally come back healthy, which could be a difference in the game.
KC’s Defense is really not considered elite, however in the playoffs, the Chiefs have been able to slow down a hot Cleveland team and stymie the high flying Bills. Despite giving up a lot more yards per game than their SB opponent, the Scoring Defense is 22.6 per Game which is on par with the Bucs (22.2).
The Match Up
The Chiefs lit up the Tampa secondary in Week 12. The bump and run coverage against Hill was not up to the task giving up over 200 yards in the first quarter. So, I don’t see the Bucs taking that approach again. I think Bowles will need to go against his trend of blitzing Patrick Mahomes a lot – sure in key situations he will, but let Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett get home and leave zones behind them. The Bucs should be able to shutdown the KC run game, especially with Vea back who missed the Week 12 match up.
For the Bucs, strength has been the passing game during the regular season. However, KC’s back end is very good with solid CBs and the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu as a robber Safety role. So, I think the KC Run D which is weaker is the match up Tampa needs to exploit. The same physical nature of the offense at GB would be the way to beat this unit. Both Fournette and Ronald Jones can be very dynamic in the running game to set up the play action pass. I would not think putting the entire game in Brady’s hands is the way to go. He has been outstanding in stretches – namely the 1st half at GB and after TOs against the Saints. However, much of both of those games, he turned the ball over at GB and was not getting it done at New Orleans overall.
In the end, Tampa needs to get out in front, hopefully with the run game and timely passing to put pressure on KC to beat the pass rush. If KC is allowed to get out and make the big plays again, then I do not see Tampa able to keep up the pace – the Bills were the best candidate for that and failed.
X Factors
Tampa 2 Players to Watch
- Devin White – He is a talented, athletic and instinctive LB who has made plays in all the playoff games. He may spy Mahomes in critical situations, but I think if he can slow down Kelce or blitz and get home for sacks, then Tampa can slow down the Chiefs.
- Scotty Miller – He is really the 4th WR for the Bucs, but not only his speed, but the Bucs need someone else to step up. Antonio Brown has not been 100% and Gronk is not the same. Originally, I liked TE Cameron Grate, but he landed on the Injury Report, so a guy like Miller needs to hit a big play or two for the Bucs – like he did at Green Bay.
Kansas City 2 Players to Watch
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire – He has not been healthy for half of the season. Darrell Williams has been decent, and Le’Veon Bell has been not great. Edwards-Helaire needs to both run effectively, but more importantly get the ball in space on the edge in the passing game given the KC O-line woes and the Tampa pass rush. If he plays well, a la Damien Williams last year, then KC can be keep the heat on the D.
- Chris Jones – The talented D-Lineman is both a very good run defender, but also a pass rush threat. Brady has struggled against teams that can pressure up the middle. Jones will face a strong Tampa interior line that was good in the first half against the Packers, but not so great in the 2nd or against the Saints. So, if you are hearing Jones’ name a lot, then Tampa is going to struggle.
Prediction
It’s hard for me. At the end of the Season, KC was at the top of the Wegs Index. However, I redo the Index based on the Playoff teams only, and Tampa was the 2nd best team after the Saints. It is close – TB 4.67 and KC 6.33. So, technically, Tampa is the better team, and it is hard to argue after the 2nd half at New Orleans and finishing off the Packers, really in the first half.
Still, I need to stick with my preseason pick. The Chiefs are able to hit another level. Tampa needs a more specific script to get this win. They can do it, definitely. However, I think Mahomes finds a way to get the revenge over the AFC Championship loss to Brady 2 years ago.
The Chiefs will win, Cover -3 and I like the Under 56.
For more gambling advice on the Super Bowl including key props, listen to the Side Action Podcast that I record with my buddy, Action.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/side-action-podcast/id1433855665?i=1000507786452
Enjoy the game. It should be a classic.
Wegs