We’ve gone through the strangest season in NFL history, but now it is time to get to it. Who will raise the Lombardi Trophy this year? With an extra team in the mix, that means only 2 teams on Bye this year making for a great today and tomorrow of Wild Card football.
I’m going to review each team, giving you their Playoff Wegs Index Score which means it only ranks the remaining 14 teams left against each other. I’ll add their path to the title, odds to win the title and finally, my predictions of each round.
NFC – A Step Behind
All season, I have seen the AFC has better this year. In past years, it has been even or even NE and everyone in the NFC to win the title. The pendulum has swung now to the AFC, but there are still viable contenders on the NFC side who could surprise.
1 Seed – Green Bay Packers (+450 Title – Index: 5.17) – Don’t tell the Wegs Index the NFC is weaker as the Top 3 teams in the Index reside in the NFC. The Pack are actually 3rd, but they have one key factor on their side – Home Field Advantage. The Pack are the #1 Scoring Offense in the NFL, but it is their improved Defense that has me wondering if they have a shot. However, of the remaining teams, GB ranks 8th in Yards Against and 9th in Points Against. Still with the best Scoring Differential, the Pack will at least host the NFC Title Game in Lambeau.
2 Seed – New Orleans Saints (+750 Title – Index 4.50) – The best team in the Wegs Index now, and it is mainly on the backs of their Defense, however inside the numbers they are only the 4th in Yards Against and 5th in Points Against. They are +9 in Turnover Differential, which helps their Offense. On paper, I love the Saints, but can they get over themselves with these last 3 seasons of demoralizing losses in the playoffs? More later…..
3 Seed – Seattle Seahawks (+1400 Title – Index: 10.00) – Very surprising to see them so low in the Index, but it’s their Defense. Yes, it has improved, but in the smaller field, they rank 13th in Yards Against and 11th in Points Against for the remaining teams. Coach Pete Carroll’s late commitment to the run game will give them a shot, but I do not like their Wild Card match up with the Rams. I wish they drew almost anyone else.
4 Seed – Washington Football Team (+10000 Title – Index 9.83) – The feel good story of the year in Washington, as first year Head Coach, Ron Rivera, not only beat cancer, but he has led his 2nd 7-9 team to the playoffs and a division crown. Plus, QB Alex Smith who literally could have died is starting for this team. I’m rooting for WAS, but the only shot of getting a win tonight is if that young D-Line plays out of their minds. 2nd in Yards Against and 4th in Points Against makes them dangerous, but can they score enough points to beat the Bucs? I want them to, but don’t think so.
5 Seed – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1000 Title – Index: 4.67) – The Bucs with TB12 at the helm did what they were expected to do – make the playoffs. Brady now has made the playoffs in every year of his career as a starter. Tampa turned it around after their bye to close strong, and they are 2nd in the Wegs Playoff Index. Do I trust them? The Bucs rely on their D-Line to stop the run, and they should get to the Divisional Round, but I honestly don’t know if I trust Coach Bruce Arians in a big game.
6 Seed – Los Angeles Rams (+3000 Title – Index: 7.17) – I have to give it to Coach Sean McVay this year. I thought after the down year last year, that they were done again, but the Defense has been incredible – 1st in Yards and Points Against. The main issue with them is Jared Goff – if he turns the ball over under pressure, then they lose. The bloodsport match up today with SEA will be must watch TV.
7 Seed – Chicago Bears (+10000 Title – Index: 11.50) – Kudos to Coach Matt Nagy to finally decide to run the damn ball and allow QB Mitchell Trubisky to run play action. It turned their roller coaster season around, but they are the worst team in the Index. The Saints are not the right match up for them. Sure, they have a shot, but I don’t see it. Very big off season for the Bears.
NFC Predictions
Wild Card Weekend Predictions
2 Saints over 7 Bears – No real contest here. Saints may not cover the -10, but they will beat the Bears in New Orleans. Saints S/U, Bears +10, Under 47.
6 Rams over 3 Seahawks – Very close call here. Probably the most wire to wire competitive game of the weekend, but I think the Rams D will do what they need to do to get the Win. Rams S/U, Rams +3, Under 42.5
5 Bucs over 4 WAS – Again, really want to see the upset here with WAS, but the Tampa D is good enough to limit WAS to under 17 points. I don’t see the same for WAS and the D. I like WAS to cover, but more like 21-14 or something. TB S/U, WAS +8.5, Under 45.5.
Divisional Round Predictions
1 Packers over 6 Rams – A true test for the Pack, as they will not have Bakthiari for the playoffs against the Rams front. Still, I think the MVP Aaron Rodgers will find a way to put up more points, especially in a colder day in Green Bay.
2 Saints over 5 Bucs – Can the Saints beat TB12 three times in a season? I think they can. They are the better team, even though the Bucs certainly can win in New Orleans. The Saints need to play 2 very good defensive fronts back to back, which could wear them down, but I do not trust Bruce Arians in a game of this magnitude.
NFC Championship Prediction
2 Saints over 1 Packers – Yep, I’ve picked the Saints in the Super Bowl for like 3 years now, but they are good!! I don’t love QB Drew Brees at Lambeau in the cold, but when they played in New Orleans the Saints were not running the ball like they are now. Probably the toughest pick besides the LAR-SEA game, but I’ll stick with my Index here and have the Saints in the Super Bowl.
AFC – The Champion Side
1 Seed – Kansas City Chiefs (+225 Title – Index 6.33) – The defending champs are still my team, but their end of the year trajectory is not good. I like teams that finish on fire, and KC hasn’t covered a spread since October. Yep, 1st in Yards Gained, but 11th in Yards Against. I’m going to see how the bracket breaks, but back to back is going to be tough.
2 Seed – Buffalo Bills (+650 Title – Index: 6.67) – I’m on record for loving this team, even though I didn’t have them making the playoffs in the pre-season. The addition of WR Stefon Diggs has allowed QB Josh Allen to flourish. The Bills are 2nd in Yards and Scoring, but what happened to Coach McDermott’s D 10th and 12th respectively of the playoff teams in Yards Against and Scoring D. The Bills have won 6 straight and covered the spread in 8 straight. I just hate their match up today.
3 Seed – Pittsburgh Steelers (+2000 Title – Index: 6.33) – The once undefeated Steelers dropped 4 of their last 5, but maybe that is for the best. Finally, QB Big Ben took over the offense in their lone win in that stretch over IND. They are 12th in Yards Gained in this group and 10th in Scoring, despite the 3rd Ranked D in both categories. I still believe in the Steelers and I like their path, but the Offense will determine their fate.
4 Seed – Tennessee Titans (+3000 Title – Index: 7.67) – RB Derrick Henry led the league in rushing again breaking 2,000 yards, but even with that dominance, the Defense is bad. The Titans are the worst D in both categories – Yards and Scoring Against where a year ago they were at least 8th in Points Against. Sure, they can get hot again like last year, but I think they are done this weekend.
5 Seed – Baltimore Ravens (+1100 Title – Index: 6.00) – The Ravens have quietly been grinding their opponents to dust. They have racked up over 1300 yards in their last 5 games on the ground. That is the most in NFL history for that stretch. Plus, their D is 2nd in Points Against of the teams remaining. I am bullish on the Ravens in these playoffs.
6 Seed – Cleveland Browns (+5000 Title – Index: 11.17) – The Browns have made the playoffs for the first time in 15 years. Happy for them, but COVID is taking their Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski out for this weekend, and they have to play their big brothers in PIT. I don’t like it. Plus, against the field, they are bottom 3rd in most categories. Unfortunately, I think they get stomped tomorrow.
7 Seed – Indianapolis Colts (+4000 Title – Index: 6.50) – The Colts are a comeback at PIT away from the divisional crown and the 3 Seed. So, this team is really good. Technically, they are better than their Wild Card opponents. However, as QB Philip Rivers goes, they will go. They will lead with rookie RB Jonathan Taylor, but Rivers will have to not turn it over and make plays for them to advance.
AFC Predictions
Wild Card Weekend Predictions
2 Bills over 7 Colts – Just a shame this is a first round match up. I would have much preferred to see the Titans lose in BUF. Still, this should be a very exciting game for the Bills’ Mafia. The Colts will have a good shot to win this one, but I’m going to stick with the hotter team. BUF S/U, IND +6.5, Under 50 (this is going down fast).
3 Steelers over 6 Browns – I mentioned earlier that I think the losing late helped PIT. The Browns will be without Stefanski, and I just can’t see the Browns getting it done. Stranger things have happened. PIT S/U, PIT -6, Under 47.
5 Ravens over 4 Titans – The Ravens lost to the Titans last year at home for a shocking upset and again earlier this year. However, I think the Titans D will not be able to stop BAL this year. The Ravens may destroy them here. BAL S/U, BAL -3, Under 54.5.
Divisional Predictions
1 Chiefs over 5 Ravens – The match up we wanted last year will happen on the 2nd weekend. Mahomes vs. Jackson. These teams played earlier this year, and the Chiefs worked them, but that team needs to show up here. This game is a very tough call, and I can see BAL winning this (and the Super Bowl). However, despite my Index, I’m going to predict KC has a different gear in the playoffs.
3 Steelers over 2 Bills – Yep, contrary to popular demand, I think the Steelers will find what they didn’t have in their last match up – Offense. The D is good, and held the Bills down for a half, but the Offense just plain sucked. I think Ben will let it rip against this sub-par D in BUF to pull the upset.
AFC Championship Prediction
1 Chiefs over 3 Steelers – Another epic game here. Whether it is the Bills or Steelers, this will be the game to watch. The Chiefs will need to be pushed, but I trust Mahomes who has been in this game 2x so far. Should be a fun one, but the Chiefs are going back to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Prediction
1 Chiefs over 2 Saints – To me, whoever wins the AFC is going to win the Bowl this year. I am defying my Index, but I think Saints will not have enough offense to match the Chiefs. Sure the Pack could score with the Chiefs, but could they get the stops. Either way, I’m predicting a repeat champ for the first time since the 2004 season.
Enjoy the games! Should be incredible.
Wegs
AFC