NFL: The Final Countdown

My real job has buried me for weeks, and I look up to find only 3 weeks left in the strangest season in NFL history. So, I thought I’d give some playoff picture insights along with a Wegs Index update.

Today’s format will be looking at the teams still in the mix in each conference, then look at their schedule plus the tiebreakers to get a good handle on their chances. Plus, I’ll give you the up to the minute Wegs Index rating, which is essentially a power rating. Lowest number being the best. Let’s do it!

NFC – The Lesser Conference This Year

• Packers – 1 Seed – Record: 10-3 (Wegs Index: 7.00) – GB is 1st in Scoring (31.5 PPG) in the NFL and 2nd in Yards/Game (397.6), plus 8th in Yards Against/Game (335.7). They are a good football team for sure. The Pack own the tiebreaker with their Head to Head win at NO earlier this year. So, even if they tie, they will get the lone bye come January. Remaining Schedule: vs. CAR (H), vs. TEN (H) and at CHI (A). The Packers should win at least 12 games then. I think they keep the 1 Seed.
• Saints – 2 Seed – Record: 10-3 (Wegs Index: 5.83) – The Saints are 2nd in Yards Against (298.4) and 4th in Scoring D (20.4 PPG), which is not a typical hallmark for NO. Yet with QB Drew Brees out, it is the D holding the fort. The slip up at PHI hurt their #1 Seed chances, but if they can upset KC this weekend, then they still have a shot. Remaining Schedule: vs. KC (H), vs. MIN (H) and at CAR (A). I think they lose to KC, which effectively locks them into the 2 Seed this year. I have them winning their last 2 for 12-4.
• Rams – 3 Seed – Record: 9-4 (Wegs Index: 8.00) – The Rams have returned to form, and will make the playoffs this year, but unlike 2018, the D is leading the charge. The Rams are 1st in Yards Against/Game (285.8) and 3rd in Scoring D (18.9 PPG), but they still gain the 3rd most yards per game (395.3). The only issue is they are in a very tough division in the NFC West, so they may not even hold this seed or win the division. Remaining schedule: vs. NYJ (H), at SEA (A) and vs. AZ (H). The game at SEA is going to determine the NFC West winner, and as much as I like the Rams D, they need to hold down Russell a 2nd time in that one. I think they finish 11-5, but if they lose at SEA, then they drop to the Wild Card (5th Seed by virtue of Head to Head win at TB).
• Washington – 4 Seed – Record: 6-7 (Wegs Index: 16.50) – Someone has to win the NFC East, but the WAS Football Team is playing very well behind that young defensive line and Rookie of the Year, DE Chase Young. WAS is 4th in Yards Against/Game (313.5) and 6th in Scoring D (21.2 PPG). QB Alex Smith has been a steady hand, so hope he can play this week on his Questionable tag versus SEA. Still WAS is 30th in Yards/G at 314.5, so they can’t win a shootout. Remaining Schedule: vs. SEA (H), vs. CAR (H) and at PHI (A). They won’t beat SEA, but I think they can win the other 2 and win the division at 8-8. Sure, the Eagles could go on a run, but I think the WAS D will crush PHI in the finale, if it comes to that.
• Seahawks – 5 Seed – Record: 9-4 (Wegs Index: 13.33) – The Seahawks got right against the Jets, but the loss at home vs. the Giants showed their weaknesses. Still, SEA is 3rd in Scoring (30.2 PPG) and 7th in Yards/G (387.5), but the D is just bad 27th in Yards Against/G (390.3). Russell and his mutant WR Metcalf have them in every game, but they need the D to rise up. Remaining Schedule: at WAS (A), vs. Rams (H) and at SF (A) – They can still jump the Rams for the NFC West and the 3 Seed, but I don’t know if they go unscathed here. I think they finish 11-5, but LA will edge them out with Conference Record, since they will split the season series.
• Bucs – 6th Seed – Record 8-5 (Wegs Index: 9.50) The Bye Week did TB12 and the Bucs good with a convincing win over MIN last week. TB is not a Top 5 in any category, but they are 6th in Points/G (28.5 PPG) and 7th in Yards Against (330.3). I like the Bucs to close strong, but not enough to overtake the Saints who swept the season series for the NFC South. So, can they overtake SEA? Remaining Schedule: at ATL (A), at DET (A) and vs. ATL (H) – I think the Falcons could win this weekend, but if TB wins that one, then they will finish 11-5 tied with SEA and LAR. Then, it comes down to Like Opponents with SEA, but I think Rams will edge them out with the Head to Head win, so they stay at 6 Seed.
• Cardinals – 7th Seed – 7-6 (Wegs Index: 10.67) – AZ finally righted the ship at the Giants after dropping 3 straight. AZ is 6th in Yards/G (389.5) and 10th in Scoring (27.5 PPG), that fueled by a healthy QB Kyler Murray. His injury hurt this team, but he looks healthy again now. Remaining Schedule: vs PHI (H), vs SF (H) and at Rams (A) – Sunday is a big one. With a win, they almost assure a spot in the playoffs. I think they will win it, but it should be a fun game to watch. I don’t think they beat the Rams, but they will take out the 49ers for their 9th win. If they do lose Sunday versus PHI, then I see them losing their spot to the Vikes. I still think they will go 9-7 and stay in.
• Vikings – 8th Seed/Last Out – 6-7 (Wegs Index: 18.17) – The Vikings came back from the dead to make a run here. That loss to DAL a couple weeks ago really cost them, as it was an NFC loss on top of an upset. RB Dalvin Cook fuels the attack for the 5th most Yards/G (389.8), and the rookie WR Jefferson has been a nice surprise. The problem is their defense isn’t great 22nd and 24th in Yards and Points Allowed respectively. Remaining Schedule: vs. CHI (H), at NO (A), at DET (A) – Sunday is basically an elimination game for the Bears and Vikings. Winner has a slim shot, and they need AZ to drop 2 games. As, I think the Vikings lose to NO, but beat DET for 8-8. However, if AZ loses 2, then it would come to Like Opponents. I think the Vikes miss the playoffs.
• Bears – 9th Seed – 6-7 (Wegs Index: 19.17) – The Bears are right behind the Vikings since they lost the lone Head to Head match up to them. After losing 6 straight, CHI finally got a win over ailing HOU. My beloved Bears are 28th in Yards and 25th in Scoring, so they really need a run to make the playoffs. Remaining Schedule: at MIN (A), at JAC (A) and vs. GB (H) – Like I wrote, if they lose Sunday, then that’s it. (Hopefully, they fire Pace and Nagy.)
• Giants – Need to Win NFC East – 5-8 (Wegs Index: 20.50) – The Giants fell back to earth in their loss last week to the Cardinals. Now, they trail the WAS Football team, but they own the tiebreaker sweeping the season series. The G-Men are respectable at 11th in Yards Against (342.9) and 9th in Points Against (22.4 PPG), but they are 31st in both Offensive categories. Remaining Schedule: vs. CLE (H), at BAL (A) and vs DAL (H) – the Giants need WAS to falter because they are only winning one of these games for 6-10. Better luck next year.
• Eagles – Need to Win NFC East – 4-8-1 (Wegs Index: 22.83) – I know why mention them, but that tie gives them a leg up. If the unfathomable happens, and they win out, then they can take the division over WAS and NYG. Remaining Schedule: at AZ (A), at DAL (A) and vs. WAS (H) – I hope AZ beats them and ends their miserable season. I think they go 5-10-1.

AFC – Super Bowl Winning Conference

• Chiefs – 1 Seed – 12-1 (Wegs Index: 5.67) – The best team in the NFL and my Index, the Chiefs 1st in Yards Gained (429.2) and 2nd to GB in Scoring (31 PPG), and the D is 8th in Scoring Against (21.6 PPG) for the best Point Differential by almost 1 point. The Chiefs can only beat themselves to lose the 1 Seed and a place in the Super Bowl in my view. Remaining Schedule: at NO (A), vs. ATL (H) and Chargers (H) – the Super Bowl preview at NO is going to be without Brees, so let’s see how the Saints D holds up against this O. Even if the Chiefs lose, they will win 2 more for 14-2. The 1 Seed is theirs.
• Steelers – 2 Seed – 11-2 (Wegs Index: 7.00) With back to back losses, the Steelers not only look mortal, but vulnerable. They have the #1 Scoring D (18.2 PPG) and 3rd in Yards Against (303.1), but Yards Gained is 23rd (335.5). They are also #1 in Turnover Differential at +11, but if you watched SNF, then you saw with TOs, the team will lose. Their offense is awful with the quick passing game over running, which does not translate in January. The Steelers will likely lose the 2 Seed to BUF and be a quick out in the playoffs, unfortunately, unless something changes. Remaining Schedule: at CIN (A), vs. IND (H) and at CLE (A) – they will definitely lose one more game, if not 2. They need help to keep the 2 seed. I think they finish 13-3 and drop to the 3 Seed.
• Bills – 3 Seed – 10-3 (Wegs Index: 13.50) – The Bills played well on SNF to top the Steelers. I still think their D is vulnerable at 20th and 15th in Yards Against and Scoring respectively, but 10th and 9th in the Offensive categories. Plus, QB Josh Allen is gaining momentum with his top WRs Diggs and Beasley. I trust HC Sean McDermott to be a tough out in January. Remaining Schedule: at DEN, at NE and vs. MIA – I think they win at least 2 games there with the only real test at home with MIA. Tua in the snow in BUF, give me the Bills there. Bills finish 13-3 and take the 2 Seed.
• Titans – 4 Seed – 9-4 (Wegs Index: 11.67) – The Titans bounced back after that throttling by CLE. This team still has RB King Henry, and that formula works in January. TEN is 4th in both Yards Gained (394.5) and Scoring (30.0 PPG), but that D is 26th and 21st in the Defensive categories. They rely too much on TOs (4th in TO Differential at +9). Remaining Schedule: vs. DET (H), at GB (A) and at HOU (A) – I like them to win at DET and HOU, but lose to the Pack. that’s 11-5, and they should still edge out IND to win the division and host the Brownies for a rematch.
• Browns – 5 Seed – 9-4 (Wegs Index: 15.67) The Browns almost pulled off some magic against BAL on MNF, but that loss puts them another win away from cementing the playoffs. CLE is great a running the ball, but not in the Top 10 in any category besides TO Differential (6th at +6). Remaining Schedule: at NYG (A), at NYJ (A) and vs. PIT – they get 2 more easy wins to get 11 wins, but they will lose at PIT to close the year. That should keep them in the 5 Seed ahead of IND on Conference Record.
• Colts – 6 Seed – 9-4 (Wegs Index: 7.17) The Colts are the best Wild Card in either Conference per my Index. 9th in Yards Gained (376.7), 5th in Scoring (28.6), 6th in Yards Against (327.1), 12th in Points Against (23.1 PPG) and 2nd in TO Differential (+10). That is a balanced team, and it makes them a tough out. The key is can Phil Rivers not turn the ball over. Remaining Schedule: vs. HOU (H), at PIT (A) and vs. JAC (H) – That Steelers match up is huge. If they do win that one, then they will jump TEN and possibly jump PIT to get to the 3 Seed. Still, I think they drop that one for 11-5 and will lose the AFC South with TEN at 5-1 vs. 4-2., plus they will drop to the 7th Seed with BAL winning Head to Head.
• Dolphins 7 Seed – 8-5 (Wegs Index: 11.67) The Fins have had a great season, but they are going to need to earn a playoff spot. They have won in spite of starting Tua at QB, now 27th in Yards Gained (323.4). Their D is 2nd with Scoring D (18.8 PPG) and TO Differential (+10). Remaining Schedule: vs. NE, at Raiders and at BUF – that is a gauntlet. At best, they will be 10-6, but I see a loss at BUF and in Las Vegas for 9-7. I think even if they do get the 2 wins, the Ravens will pass them up to just miss the playoffs.
• Ravens 8 Seed/First Out – 8-5 (Wegs Index: 10.50) The Ravens win on MNF was the key to their season, and it came down to QB Lamar Jackson coming on the field to throw a 4th down pass to make it happen. BAL is Top 10 in 3 key categories: 8th in Points Scored (27.9 PPG), 5th in Points Against (21.0 PPG) and 10th in TO Differential (+4). Remaining Schedule: vs. JAC (H), vs. NYG (H) and at CIN (A) – That is 3 wins and 11 on the season. That locks up a spot, and actually jumps IND for the 6th Seed by virtue of their Head to Head win.
• Raiders 9th seed/Next Out – 7-6 (Wegs Index: 21.00) The Raiders after the near 2nd win over the Chiefs in Week have dropped 3 of 4 (including that game). Their D is just bad 30th in Points Against (30.1 PPG) and 24th in TO Differential (-5). I’m happy to see them improve, but this is not a playoff team. Remaining Schedule: vs. Chargers, vs. Dolphins and at DEN. They might get to 10 wins, and they will still miss the playoffs. I think they find a way to drop 1, and they finish 9-7.

That is the rundown. Of course, any given Sunday does happen, but it looks to me that only really the Dolphins will fall out of the field now. However, you will see some shake ups in the seeding.

I’ll be back for a playoff preview and predictions for your Office/Home Office Pools.

Enjoy the last 3 weeks.

Wegs