It’s been a busy fall for me, so yes, I’m a week late on the update. Still, it’s a COVID season, so hope my loyal readers cut me some slack. Each team will show their record, Wegs Index through 9 weeks, and commentary. Let’s get to it.

Divisional Reviews

NFC East – Still the Worst (Avg Index 22.50)

  • Eagles 3-4-1 – 4 Seed (Prediction: 6-2 Index: 21.50) – The “Class” of the NFC East is hardly that. Yes, the Eagles have gotten some wins of late, but they have to improve on their TO Differential (-7). They should win the division, but that’s not saying a lot.
  • Washington 2-6 (Prediction: 3-5 Index: 21.67) – The D is solid (5th in Yards/Game), but the lack of offense leaves this team with no margin in games. Now with Alex Smith at the helm, I don’t that that will improve.
  • Giants 2-7 (Prediction: 1-8 Index: 22.00) – The Giants are actually improving, especially on D, but they are 31st in Yards/Game and Points/Game.
  • Cowboys 2-7 (Prediction: 6-3 Index: 24.83) – The Cowboys season is over, but at least they have showed up on Defense the last 2 weeks. Now on their 4th string QB, it really is whether Jerry Jones will stick to Coach McCarthy in the off season.

NFC North – The Packers and everyone else (Avg Index 17.58)

  • Packers 6-2 – 3 Seed (Prediction: 3-5 Index: 8.83) – The Pack had a couple rough outings, but bounced back big at SF. 3rd in Points/Game really bolsters this team. They should still win the North.
  • Bears 5-4 – 8 Seed/Out (Prediction: 5-4 Index: 18.67) – My beloved Bears have come back to earth with 3 straight losses. The switch to Foles has kinda worked, but 29th in Yards and Points per Game does not seem like a playoff team.
  • Vikings 3-5 (Prediction: 4-4 Index: 19.83) – The Vikes used the bye to get healthy, especially at RB with Dalvin Cook the NFL’s leading rusher. Their D is still not good giving up the 412.9 Yards per Game (29th). I do like them to jump the Bears in the Division.
  • Lions 3-5 (Prediction: 1-7 Index: 23.00) – The Lions are still the Lions. They get your hopes up on occasion, like the win at Atlanta, but they can’t beat the tougher teams. Again, Coach Patricia must go.

NFC South – Potential Super Bowl Teams (Avg Index 12.625)

  • Saints 6-2 – 1 Seed (Prediction: 6-2 Index: 8.50) – The Saints crushed the Bucs last week, and effectively take the division. They can still lose it, but with 3 key metrics in the Top 10, the Saints are good.
  • Bucs 6-3 – 5 Seed (Prediction: 5-4 Index: 9.50) – That Super Bowl buzz has cooled with the lackluster win over the Giants and demolition at the hands of the Saints. Still Tampa is Top 10 in Scoring, Points Against and Yards Against.
  • Falcons 3-6 (Prediction: 4-5 Index: 16.17) – The Falcons have righted the ship after firing Dan Quinn. Once 0-5, the ATL has won 3 of 4 games. They still have a shot at squeaking in the playoffs, if they keep it up.
  • Panthers 3-6 (Prediction: 3-6 Index: 16.33) – CAR had McCaffery back for a second at KC, but he is hurt again. Really just a middle of the pack team across the board.

NFC West – The Best of the NFC (Avg Index 11.83)

  • Seahawks 6-2 – 2 Seed (Prediction: 5-3 Index: 14.33) – The #1 Scoring Offense and the #32 Defense in Yards Against, that makes for some shootouts each week. I don’t like them for the NFC Championship like that.
  • Cardinals 5-3 – 6 Seed (Prediction: 4-4 Index: 9.00) – This team is up and down, but they will be right there in the playoff hunt. QB Kyler Murray has been great #1 in Yards Per Game. Can they beat good teams, though?
  • Rams 5-3 – 7 Seed (Prediction: 2-6 Index: 10.17) – The best Defense in the division and 2nd in the NFL Yards and Points Against. The problem is QB Jared Goff. If he stinks, they lose. It’s that simple.
  • 49ers 4-5 (Prediction: 7-2 Index: 13.83) – The Super Bowl runners up can’t stay healthy, plus the curious trade of LB Kwon Alexander, seems like they are giving up on 2020. They are right in the playoff hunt, but for this reason I like the Vikings or Atlanta to take their slot.

AFC East – A New Sheriff in Town (Avg Index 18.00)

  • Bills 7-2 – 3 Seed (Prediction: 5-4 Index: 14.33) – They won the big match up against the Pats, and are a lock for the playoffs, but can that average D get them a playoff win?
  • Dolphins 5-3 – 9 Seed/Out (Prediction: 4-5 Index 11.83) – The switch to Tua Tangaviloa was strange, but the Fins have responded with back to back wins. They are looking more and more like a playoff team the 4th best team in Points Against and TO Differential (+5). Big game against Raiders 12/27 for playoff berth.
  • Patriots 3-5 (Prediction: 5-3 Index: 18.33) – The Pats will not make the playoffs in a decade. The team doesn’t score (28th in Points Per Game). Sorry Bill.
  • Jets 0-9 (Prediction: 2-7 Index: 27.50) – How does Adam Gase still have a job? 32nd in Points Per Game and Yards Per Game. Tied for last in the Index overall. Trevor Lawerence was almost lost with the near win over NE.

AFC North – The Best in the AFC (Avg Index 13.875)

  • Steelers 8-0 – 1 Seed (Prediction: 5-3 Index: 7.67) – Sure, a near loss to the lowly Cowboys last week, but PIT is 2nd overall in the Index. Top 6 in all categories except for Yards per Game. This team will be a tough out in January.
  • Ravens 6-2 – 5 Seed (Prediction: Index: 8.00) – The Ravens have 2 losses: Chiefs and Steelers (the 2 teams ahead in the Index), besides that they crush everyone else. #1 in Points Against. They still can win the division.
  • Browns 5-3 – 8 Seed/Out (Prediction: Index: 19.33) – The bye may help them with RB Nick Chubb back, but losing OBJ at WR will hurt. They can still make the playoffs, but the Dolphins and Raiders are ahead of them right now.
  • Bengals 2-5-1 (Prediction: 2-6 Index: 20.50) – QB Joe Burrow makes this offense go, but with no category better than 17th in this division makes them the cellar dweller again.

AFC South – 2 Horse Race – (Avg Index 18.17)

  • Titans 6-2 – 4 Seed (Prediction: 7-1 Index: 11.50) – The Titans are #1 in Turnover Differential at +10, but that D really falls short for a contender – 25th in Yards Against. The Colts are big boying them right now on TNF.
  • Colts 5-3 – 6 Seed (Prediction: 5-3 Index: 8.50) – Does not include Week 10 TNF. The Colts D is #1 in Yards Against, but can QB Philip Rivers play well in the big game? He hasn’t so far. They can win this division and lose in the first round.
  • Texans 2-6 (Prediction: 4-4 Index: 25.17) – Remember when the Texans won the division every year? Well, they will be in the Top 5 of the draft in April.
  • Jags 1-7 (Prediction: 1-7 Index: 27.50) – The Jags are what we thought they were, BAD. After the Week 1 win shocking the Colts, they have lost 7 straight and even with a QB change, they lost to HOU. They are in the Lawrence sweepstakes tied with the Jets as the league’s worst team in the Index.

AFC West – Chiefs and Everyone Else (Avg Index 15.96)

  • Chiefs 8-1 – 2 Seed (Prediction: 8-1 Index: 4.67) – A near loss at home against the Panthers, but this team is tough to beat. 13th in Yards Against is the only chink in the armor. The league’s team best per the Index.
  • Raiders 5-3 – 7 Seed/In (Prediction: 3-5 Index: 19.00) – They are in the playoff hunt with the big win at CLE and one over KC, but a suspect defense will be their undoing – 23rd in Yards and 24th in Points Against. Big game 12/27 against MIA for playoff berth.
  • Broncos 3-5 (Prediction: 3-5 Index: 24.50) – Hard to see how they have won 3 games, but they did get to beat NE in Foxboro and a comeback win over the Chargers. Still 30th in TO Differential (-7) is typically their undoing.
  • Chargers 2-6 (Prediction: 5-4 Index: 15.67) – This team is more talented than all but 3 teams in the league. They have blown leads in almost every game. #2 in Yards Per Game, and QB Justin Herbert is the Rookie of the Year favorite, but Coach Anthony Lynn is a dead man walking in my view.

Alright, one more check in before the playoffs.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.