The NFL has completed 4 games, but not without its difficulties. COVID has had real impacts on players, games, fantasy players and gamblers. With every day being a new story, the NFL may still be king, but it has been a challenge to predict anything.

First Quarter Actuals vs. Predictions

Chiefs Are Still The Top Dog

For each division I’ll show the Actual Record (Predicted Record to date, an asterisk denotes correct prediction) and the Team’s Wegs Pool Index Score. Just a reminder that the Wegs Index is a ranking based on 6 categories: Yards Gained/Game, Points/Game, Yards Against/Game, Points Allowed/Game, Scoring Differential/Game and Turnover Differential. The Lower the Score, the Better the team is.

NFC East – The Worst Division in Football – Avg Index Rank = 22.325

  • Eagles 1-2-1 (Prediction 3-1) – Index 23.0- Eagles offense can’t protect Wentz and D has been just ok. Hard to believe in them to hold off DAL.
  • Cowboys 1-3 (Prediction 3-1) – Index 20.3- Dak Prescott and the offense can score but Turnovers and that Defense have killed them. Should be 0-4.
  • Washington 1-3 (Prediction 0-4) – Index 23.3- Solid Defense, but the offense is bad. A change at QB to Kyle Allen may help.
  • Giants 0-4 (Prediction 0-4*) – Index 22.7- A couple of near comebacks against the Bears and Rams, but no real chance plus RB Saquon Barkley out for the year. The worst team in the worst division in football.

NFC North – The Pack looks legit. Avg Index Rank = 17.425

  • Packers 4-0 (Prediction 2-2) – Index 6.7 – QB Aaron Rodgers is playing at an elite level without great WRs. Defense has been very good of late.
  • Bears 4-1 (Prediction 4-1*) – Index 16.8 – The Bears are winning games with smoke and mirrors. The switch to QB Nick Foles is welcomed, but will not make them better than the Pack.
  • Vikings 1-3 (Prediction 2-2) – Index 23.2 – The Vikes D is not what it has been over the past 3-4 years. Plus the loss of WR Stefon Diggs looks to have hurt some. They will play better going forward.
  • Lions 1-3 ( Prediction 0-4) – Index 23.0 – The Lions got a win at AZ, but they have played poorly. I still think Coach Patricia is out this season.

NFC South – No clear favorite with the Saints back step. Avg Index Rank = 14.1

  • Bucs 3-2 (Prediction 2-3) – Index 9.7 – The Bucs have played better defense than expected. Brady has had very good games, but Thursday was a bit embarrassing.
  • Saints 2-2 (Prediction 4-0) – Index 12.5 – QB Drew Brees has not been up to snuff, plus the WR Michael Thomas injury has slowed the offense, but the D has been the most disappointing so far. They will put things together.
  • Panthers 2-2 (Prediction 1-3) – Index 14.2 – The surprise of the division in the first quarter, Coach Matt Rhule has the boys believing even without RB Christian McCaffery for a while.
  • Falcons 0-4 (Prediction 1-3) – Index 20.0 – The Falcons could be 2-2, if they could play any defense dropping 15 point 4th Quarter leads to the Cowboys and Bears. Coach Dan Quinn will be fired by my 2nd Quarter update.

NFC West – The Best Division in the NFL will be a grudge match to the end. Avg. Index Rank = 11.25

  • Seahawks 4-0 (Prediction 3-1) – Index 11.0 – QB Russell Wilson is the MVP through the first quarter. Now, about that defense? I’m glad Coach Carroll is letting Russell ball, but he needs to get some healthy players in that defensive secondary.
  • Rams 3-1 (Prediction 1-3) – Index 10.0 – The Rams were a miss for me. I’m impressed with the bounce back on both sides of the ball. However, I do not trust QB Jared Goff to take this team to the 2018 heights.
  • Cardinals 2-2 (Prediction 2-2*) – Index 16.3 – With a big win over SF in Week 1, they became the NFL Darlings. However, they are playing like an 8-8 team with ups and downs.
  • 49ers 2-2 (Prediction 4-0) – Index 7.7 – Injuries to DEs Nick Bosa and Soloman Thomas, not to mention QB Jimmy Garappolo (who returns this week) and the top 2 RBs have made them vulnerable. I think they will contend for the division still.

AFC East – Bills are a formidable challenge to the Patriots. Avg. Index Rank = 17.475

  • Bills 4-0 (Prediction 3-1) – Index 11.3 – QB Josh Allen is my MVP candidate. He has loved the addition of Stefon Diggs, plus that D is good enough to play there better offenses. They should be fun in January.
  • Patriots 2-2 (Prediction 2-2*) – Index 12.3 – QB Cam Newton had been playing very well, but a failed COVID test took him out against the Chiefs. They need to play better to take the Bills this year.
  • Dolphins 1-3 (Prediction 2-2) – Index 20.5 – The Fins have been in most games, but when will they turn to Tua at QB. I still like them to play better, but no real chance for the playoffs here.
  • Jets 0-4 (Prediction 0-4*) – Index 25.8 – To me the worst team in the NFL, not by the Index, but close enough. QB Sam Darnold is “hurt” or maybe benched. Coach Adam Gase will be the next coach fired. It’s a dead heat with him and Quinn in ATL.

AFC North – Best Division in the AFC – Avg. Index Rank = 12.8

  • Steelers 3-0 (Prediction 3-1) – Index 8.0 – The Steelers were the first COVID casualty with the Titans debacle. I love this team’s D and the offense is playing well enough.
  • Ravens 3-1 (Prediction 4-0) – Index 10.0 – Baltimore has looked dominant except against KC. QB Lamar Jackson is best when winning, and the D needs to find a way to slow faster teams.
  • Browns 3-1 (Prediction 2-2) – Index 14.5 – Despite QB Baker Mayfield’s so-so play, the Browns have leaned on their superior run game with 3 straight wins. They are looking primed for the playoffs this year to break the drought.
  • Bengals 1-2-1 (Prediction 1-3) – Index 18.7 – QB Joe Burrow has provided a spark to the offense this year. In a different division, then they would be much better, not in this one.

AFC South – Turbulence is the norm – Avg. Index Rank = 17.625

  • Titans 3-0 (Prediction 3-1) – Index 13.0 – The first team to get a postponed game due to COVID. The outbreak spread to 20+ players moving their Week 4 team to a Bye Week (along with the Steelers).
  • Colts 3-1 (Prediction 3-1*) – Index 8.0 – The Colts look like the best team, but they may need to get QB Rivers to throw deep once in a while. #1 Defense is certainly helping them.
  • Jaguars 1-3 (Prediction 0-4) – Index 22.3 – They are a come from behind win against the Colts away from 0-4.
  • Texans 0-4 (Prediction 1-3) – Index 27.2 – GM/Coach Bill O’Brien was fired this week. His terrible trade of WR Deandre Hopkins and the slow start have made the change to Interim Coach Romeo Crennel. I don’t think it will help, as they are the worst team statistically.

AFC West – Still Hailing to the Chiefs – Avg. Index Rank = 16.55

  • Chiefs 4-0 (Prediction 3-1) – Index 5.7 – QB Patrick Mahomes and that defense have KC being the team to beat after 4 games. A healthy KC team will be tough to stop in the playoffs.
  • Raiders 2-2 (Prediction 1-3) – Index 19.0 – Coach Jon Gruden does have his team playing better, but I don’t believe in QB Derek Carr. They will hover around .500.
  • Chargers 1-3 (Prediction 2-2) – Index 18.2 – After a mistaken injection in QB Tyrod Taylor, the Justin Herbert era began early. The defense has played ok, but close games are not Coach Anthony Lynn thing to win.
  • Broncos 1-3 (Prediction 2-2) – Index 23.3 – With QB Drew Lock on the shelf with injury and OLB Von Miller out for the year, it is going to be rough.

Let’s see how the next 4 weeks play out. With sliding schedules for COVID and other adjustments to protocols. It could make for a very interesting month of the season.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.