7 Stages of A Crisis – A COVID-19 Story

For those of you that have read my posts, you know that I am a sports guy. Unfortunately, sports like the Karl Marx said, is an opiate of the masses. It’s a distraction from our daily life. In this time, it would be great to have a distraction, but priorities to focus on the response is way more important. So, I decided to put my sociology hat back on and write about the situation.

Disclaimer: This is not from a textbook or even a self-help book, this is my take on times of crisis. It’s my opinion 100%. So, take it as such, not a government briefing.

7 Stages of Crisis – in a Corona Virus Context

Stage 1: Denial

Personally, I don’t watch the news a lot. I may catch something on Twitter here or there, but I follow my sports people. When China cancels the Chinese New Year celebration, I paused a second. I thought, hmm, that’s weird. However, I didn’t listen or research this virus. My co-worker was on this 3 weeks or more earlier than I was. She would ask me what I thought, and I was like – it’s not going to be that bad. We would run numbers based on China, and the deaths were staggering if you apply the Chinese or Italian death rate. Yet, my President said it was a hoax. Most of my friends, very educated people, thought well it won’t affect us. Italy has an older population.

So, life went on like it always did. When, China was affected in November – that’s 4 months or more ago. China built 14 hospitals to deal with the sick. China imposed a nationwide quarantine. Yet, like most Americans, I didn’t think it would affect me or to the same extent. I was upset about the stock market dropping, but I’m young it can bounce back for me.

Unfortunately, I do blame the federal government for not acting earlier on the China situation. They had an opportunity to prepare our country for a potential reality that we face today. Instead, we are caught flat footed and starting the race at a stand still.

Stage 2: Early Irrational Reactions

I would call this stage Panic, but everyone responds in different ways in the face of impending crisis. A lot of people panic, and this comes in the form of buying all the toilet paper in the grocery store, all the canned goods, bottled water, etc. However, others go the other way and laugh in the face of danger by going on with St. Patrick’s Day celebrations, spring break, etc. because who knows when the next time you can do that. I totally get that. For me, I went out to lunch on Saturday, March 14th even after the St. Pat’s Parade was canceled, our happy hour was canceled the day before after the recommendation of “social distancing” came down – which I didn’t know what that really was at the time, and my guys trip was on the verge of getting canceled. I mean I should have gotten the message when all sports were canceled – my personal opiate – however, I soldiered on a bit, until I was forced to change.

On a bigger level, messaging from our White House was not clear. It was the local level politicians at the city and state level that made moves to protect people from themselves. In fact, the message from President Trump switched from “we have great control of the virus” on the weekend to national guidelines 2 days later. We all had a reaction to this pandemic. There isn’t a wrong response, but without clear messaging and direction, people will be human and do stupid stuff. However, the stock market fell to record low levels, so it was more than an emotional response.

Stage 3: Initial Controls

As the days rolled on, states and cities took active measures to control the virus. People were not listening to the initial recommendations. So, unlike China which has a planned society with a greater level of control, our lawmakers rely on its people to act in the best interest of themselves AND OTHERS, however many did not listen. Sure, my company had us work from home, but schools were closed, so everyone needed to stay anyway. Yet, since people were still going on, states put these “shelter in place” orders which effectively puts 80-90% or more of the populous at home since most of us work in “non-essential jobs.” This is why the stock market crashed down. Our economy is based on spending – consumer spending. We can’t spend money if we don’t make money. So, sending everyone home is really tough for most people. There are ripples throughout – how are we to pay rent or a mortgage, pay other bills like car loans, student loans, and pay for food. These controls make sense from a virus standpoint, but unemployment has spiked to over 20% (and that’s just a start).

Personally, I’m very lucky at this point that my company will pay me to work from home, and I can continue to do my job to a great extent. Yet, the average person can’t. Initial controls make sense when you have a timeline to work with, so most orders are finite – 2 weeks or 30 days or a date certain. That makes sense, however all the CNN coverage think that in order to stop the spike of cases these measures could take 60-90 days. Yes, there is a lot of work on a stimulus package for some Americans, but it is nearly impossible to close the spigot on the workforce for 3 months without gigantic ramifications.

At this moment, people are doing fun things to get through. The Push Up Challenge, FaceTime calls or Google Hangout Happy Hours – in some ways thank God we have social media, internet and phones/other devices to keep us connected when we are isolated. I do think the novelty of this seems fun, but over a 30-60 day period, it will be a lot tougher to not get depressed or with no end in sight.

The government has tried to grease the wheels of industry to respond to the shortage in ventilators, virus testing, hand sanitizer production, and protective gear for medical professionals. However, it is a bit late in the process. From all the stats, the US is incredibly short and the reason the measures are being instituted is to “flatten the curve” of the virus. The main issue with that approach is that depends on us, Americans to implement them. That’s great, but we know that even with a great response, we don’t have enough hospitals, beds and materials to fight the virus.

Stage 4: Potential for Chaos

This stage is the one that all lawmakers and Americans want to avoid. It is the stage when people revert back to Stage 2 – an emotional state, but this time act destructively. This is the stage in the movie when people loot the grocery store, rob their neighbors or act without normal social order. I’m not wishing this stage on us. I hope that we do not reach this level. However, not every person will be able to just sit at home, have enough food, and keep their job during the Initial Measures.

If it comes to this, then you will see Martial Law imposed by the State and Federal Government. China imposed federal controls very early on with a full quarantine delivering food to people. The US and its history was built on fighting these types of measures, so if you are reading this, pray we don’t get to this level. Pray we skip this stage. It’s not a necessary stage, but in the history of humankind, it is much more common to have riots, uprisings, etc., especially when the powers that be cannot tell us how long we have to follow the Initial Measures. When we know if we are going to have money and food, and that the world as we know it will return soon. When we lose hope.

I think this is where the federal government should be intervening much earlier and to a greater extent than they have to date. Instead of being soft and reactive, they need to be strong and proactive. I think that governors like Andrew Cuomo in NY and JB Pritzker in IL are at the point imploring the Fed to act more. The lack of uniformity by the states will cause emotional responses from us Americans. Human nature leads people to take action to establish their own level of control.

I’m not sure the total impacts of this virus will be like we have seen in the movies like Contagion, but shutting down the economy without a legitimate safety net is an extremely scary scenario. A friend of mine espoused a theory that this is all a plan by our government and others to thin the herd and only the strong will survive. I don’t agree with them that this is staged in any way, but it doesn’t take a lot of people to think that to take matters into their own hands. Also, in the long run, crises like this leave the lower middle and lower class extremely vulnerable, not from the virus itself but restoring life to where it was. We all need to have a roof over our heads, food for our family and security for the future, so America needs strong leadership to restore the faith in our country.

Again, let’s all do our part to avoid this stage, but this stage is my greatest fear.

Stage 5: Turning the Tide – Ray of Hope

At some point, the curve will hit its peak. China closed clinics a couple weeks ago after their extreme measures for 3 months. Maybe a vaccine will be fast tracked to prevent the virus. Perhaps the weather will slow the spread of the virus, so we can get a few more months back to normal and develop preparation for the next wave in flu season in the late fall. Regardless, how we get there, this is what we all need. The light at the end of the tunnel, the end in sight, even if the measures stay in place, we can imagine the world returning to normal.

For me, I need this as much as anyone else. I lived in the DC area when 9/11 happened. I walked past the smoking Pentagon on my way home that day. The world stopped for a few days. We were scared, and we didn’t know what would happen. Yet, there was a clear path out delineated by President Bush. The same thing happened when I was living in the Dominican Republic during Hurricane Georges in 1998. The Hurricane slammed us in Santo Domingo (which the Peace Corps evacuated us from our sites to protect us, but the storm shifted to hit us there). For this, we don’t know when this will happen, but it will.

So, I’m all for the silly challenges and virtual happy hours, but let’s be sure to continue them when we are 6-8 weeks into this thing. If things get real and we have to ration food or follow some rotating schedule to get food, keep hope alive until we hit this point. Then, it is downhill from there. We can catch our collective breath.

Stage 6: Rebuilding It All

The world will resume after all this. However, since we have shut so much down, it could take a while. Patience is important. It’s not going to be just like we were in early March. Some people will have lost their jobs or homes or businesses. We need to work together and have compassion for those that were hit harder than ourselves. We don’t know now what will need to be done, but it will be on all of us to rebuild it.

Back to the DR after the Hurricane, the volunteers spent days clearing trees and debris from houses in the city. I think we lived in a hotel for 10 days or something before heading back to our actual project sites. So, there is going to be work to be done. Americans have done this throughout history – after WW2, there was a boom in production and population afterwards – although Europe needed to be rebuilt. We will need something similar to build the economy back up, but the government will need to lead the way on this. Direct our energy in the same direction.

Stage 7: Collective Amnesia

Our current society is not very well versed in history. We are a here and now world that focuses on the immediate and the next quarter. I would guess that 90% of America will move on back to their lives and in a year or 2 – they won’t even remember what they did during this time. However, that is a mistake.

Hopefully, the 10% will do what they can to prevent or prepare for the next virus to hit the population. There should be a readiness plan for medical products production, storage of essential equipment, more research into epidemiology, as the main lesson I’ve taken away from this is that a simple virus can completely derail our economy and way of life in days, not months, days.

We spend Trillions on Military Defense in this country, which affords our way of life both at our borders and abroad, but clearly we do not have the same investment in virus defense. The scary part for me is that the US response has shown a blueprint to terrorist groups or other enemies how effective something like a virus can be to weaken us. I’m not overly nationalistic, but I do love America. I do not want to be this vulnerable again. After 9/11 the government created Homeland Security, so doesn’t this pandemic qualify as Homeland Security? I feel secure that a plane won’t hit a building again, I feel secure that we won’t get hit with a nuclear weapon, but I don’t feel secure that we are ready for an equally contagious virus with a higher mortality rate.

So, let’s not get fully back to normal life until we implore our politicians to put in measures, supplies and a process to respond better to something like this virus. We owe it to ourselves and our children or grandchildren in 10 or 20 years when the next pandemic hits.

Thanks for listening.

Wegs