Every game counts at this point of the season. With conference tournaments starting this week, every team has hopes to get in the Big Dance.

Week in Review

These Cats Are Laughing At Being Under Rated
  • Wildcats Take Big 12 Title – #6 Kentucky took their sweet revenge against Auburn on Saturday winning, 73-66, clinching the Big 12 Regular Season Crown (but lost to TEN this week). The Wildcats look like a team who can make some noise in the Dance.
  • Sparty Is Back – #16 Michigan State also exacted some revenge at Maryland with a resounding 78-66 win in College Park. Coach Izzo may have turned this team around at the right time.
  • Nova Strikes Back – Seton Hall may win the Big East Regular Season, but #14 Nova sent a message by winning at the Hall, 79-77. Should fuel a very fun conference tournament.
  • ND State On Top of Summit – The Bison were no fluke taking down the Jackrabbits of SD State, 71-69, on Thursday to grab a share of the Summit lead going into the tournament.

Predictions: 3-1 – another good week.

Bubble Watch

So, with the last week of regular season play or conference tournaments starting, I’m going to focus on the very last 8 slots or so. Here we go:

Right Side of the Bubble (Last 9 In)

  • Oklahoma (18-12, 8-9 Big 12, KP 37, Net 46) – The Sooners are a virtual lock now to make the field,, but an early loss in the Big 12 tournament could change that tremendously. JL – 10 Seed, JP – 10 Seed and Wegs – In
  • Rutgers (19-11, 10-9 Big Ten, KP 27, Net 32) – The Scarlet Knights are on the verge to getting to the Dance for the first time in decades. However, lack of road wins put them on the Bubble. JL – 11 Seed, JP – First Out, Wegs – In.
  • UCLA (19-11, 12-5 PAC 12, KP 79, Net 75) – The Bruins are that team that has caught fire, but their metrics and non-conference record will doom them if they lose early in the PAC 12 tournament. JL – 12 Seed, JP – 11 Seed, Wegs – Metrics Aside In with PAC 12 lead.
  • USC (21-9, 10-7 PAC12, KP 52, Net 39) – The Trojans are one of 6 PAC 12 teams that can play their way out of the tournament. In for now. JL – 11 Seed, JP – 8 Seed and Wegs – Should be in.
  • Utah State (23-8, 12-6 MWC, KP 40, Net 38) – The Aggies’ loss to New Mexico has them back on the Bubble. They really need to get to the MWC Tournament final to be safely in. JL – 12 Seed (Last In), JP – 11 Seed (Last In) and Wegs – like the team, but to make final.
  • Arizona State (19-10, 10-6 PAC 12, KP 58, Net 49) – After going red hot for a while, the Sun Devils have cooled off at the wrong time. They stay in, but an early exit in the PAC 12 would knock them out. JL – 10 Seed, JP – 9 Seed and Wegs – One More Loss on wrong side.
  • Stanford (20-9, 9-7 PAC12, KP 34, Net 25) – Excellent metrics and big wins keep them in at this time, but a win at Oregon would cement their status. JL – 11 Seed (Last In), JP 10 Seed and Wegs – They are in.
  • Richmond (23-7, 13-4 A10, KP 48, Net 42) – I believe 2 teams will get in from the A10, so the Spiders are the team for now with URI falling to Davison. JL – First Out, JP – 12 Seed (Last In), Wegs – Squarely in for me.
  • Indiana (19-11, 9-10 Big Ten, KP 36, Net 54) – The Hoosiers are in by the thinnest margin. They need to get wins in the final week and the tournament to stay. JL – 10 seed, JP – 9 Seed, Wegs – Barely In.

Wrong Side of the Bubble (First 7 Out)

  • Wichita State (22-7, 10-6 AAC, KP 39, Net 43) – The Shockers can play D, but that offense is a major problem come March. JL – 12 Seed (Last In), JP – 10 Seed and Wegs – Out for me.
  • Xavier (19-11, 8-9 Big East, KP 44, Net 41) – I’m not as big of a fan of this team, but quality wins in conference save this team. JL -9 Seed, JP – 8 Seed and Wegs – Out with last loss.
  • Cincinnati (19-10, 12-5 AAC, KP 43, Net 51) – Another classic living on the edge team in Cincy. I like them, but they need to get to the AAC Title game to Dance in my eyes. JL – 11 Seed (Last In), JP – First Out and Wegs – Needs more wins.
  • Texas (19-11, 9-8 Big12, KP, Net 55) – The Longhorns are finally playing for Coach Shaka Smart. It took long enough. Their record will not get them in the Dance, so they need to keep winning to get a bid. If they can get to the Big 12 Final, then we will see them Dancing. JL – Next 4 Out, JP – 11 Seed (Last In), Wegs – Should be In.
  • Tulsa (21-9, 13-4 AAC, KP 76, Net 82) – Tulsa leads the AAC at this point. Despite poor metrics, you have to put them in the conversation, as they are ahead of Houston a clear tournament team and other teams on this list – Wichita State and Cincinnati. JL – Not on radar, JP – Not on radar, Wegs – Metrics need to be better, so have to win tourney.
  • Mississippi State (19-11, 10-7 SEC, KP 51, Net 53) – The Bulldogs are not in a good spot. Other SEC teams are heating up, and losses on the road have killed them all year. They are out for now. JL – First Four Out, JP – First Out, Wegs – Can’t do it.
  • NC State (18-12, 9-10 ACC, KP 55, Net 58) – The ups and downs of the Wolfpack are putting them out again. I don’t think they will Dance unless they surprise someone good in the ACC Tournament. JL – First Out, JP – Not on radar and Wegs – Under .500 not acceptable.

Conference Tournaments Preview

One Bid Leagues to Watch

Some Mid-Majors Are Above the Rest Like SFA
  • Ohio Valley Conference (OVC) – Championship is Saturday, 3/7 at 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central on ESPN 2. This league almost always comes down to a Belmont Bruins-Murray State Racers finale, but Austin Peay has had a good season.
  • Big South – Championship is Sunday, 3/8 at 1 PM Eastern/12 Noon Central on ESPN. The Radford Highlanders and Winthrop Eagles should be the last 2 standing, but both will be no better than a 15 seed in a couple weeks.
  • Atlantic Sun (ASun) – Championship Game is Sunday, 3/8 at 3 PM Eastern/2 PM Central on ESPN. The Liberty Flames and North Florida Ospreys should duke it out for the bid. Liberty looked good for an at large early in the year, but given the Bubble, I think they will stay home if they lose.
  • Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) – Championship is Sunday, 3/8 at 2:05 PM Eastern/1:05 PM Central on CBS. Also known as Arch Madness, as the games are held in St. Louis, the Northern Iowa Panthers are the leader and could potentially make the Dance if they lost in the title game, but can they really take that chance. Will Loyola Chicago be able to be a Cinderella again?
  • Southern Conference (SoCon) – Championship is Monday, 3/9 at 7:00 PM Eastern/6:00 PM Central on ESPN. The East Tennessee State Buccaneers are the class of this league, and they could potentially get in the Dance even if they lost in the title game. Furman and UNC Greensboro are not slouches, but would need to win the tournament to punch a ticket.
  • Northeast Conference (NEC) – Championship is Tuesday, 3/10 at 7 PM Eastern/6 PM Central – no info available on viewing. The Merrimack Warriors have led most of the year, but they are not the perennial tournament representative. Watch out for St. Francis or Robert Morris to upset them.
  • Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) – Championship is Tuesday, 3/10 at 7 PM Eastern/6 PM Central on CBSSN. Hofstra is the top dog here, but they need to get past William & Mary to Dance.
  • Horizon League – Championship is Tuesday, 3/10 at 7 PM Eastern/6 PM Central – no info available on viewing. The Wright State Raiders are the team to beat here. Maybe the Northern Kentucky Norse can knock them out, but unlikely.
  • Summit League – Championship is Tuesday, 3/10 at 9 PM Eastern/8 PM Central on ESPN 2. The South Dakota State Jackrabbits need to dig deep to knock off the North Dakota State Bison in this league.
  • Patriot League – Championship is Wednesday, 3/11 at 7:30 PM Eastern/6:30 PM Central on CBSSN. The Colgate Raiders should win this league, but stranger things have happened.
  • American East Conference (AmEast) – Championship is Saturday, 3/14 at 11 AM Eastern/10 AM Central on ESPN 2. The Vermont Catamounts are one of my favorite teams, but they have been upset in this tourney in recent years. Stony Brook is that team to do it.
  • Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) – Championship is Saturday, 3/14 at 1 PM Eastern/12 Noon Central on ESPN 2. NC A&T and NCCU will be the last two standing here to earn a 16 Seed.
  • Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) – Championship is Saturday, 3/14 at 4 PM Eastern/3 PM Central on ESPN U. The Siena Saints and the St. Peter’s Peacocks should rumble for this bid.
  • South Western Athletic Conference (SWAC) – Championship is Saturday, 3/14 at 6 PM Eastern/5 PM Central on ESPN U. The Prairie View A&M Panthers are the squad here. Whoever wins this one will be likely in the First Four in Dayton.
  • Mid-American Conference (MAC) – Championship is Saturday, 3/14 at 7:30 PM Eastern/6:30 PM Central on ESPN 2. The Akron Zips have been at the top most of the year, but Bowling Green has been able to beat them. I expect them to play in the title game for the bid.
  • Big Sky Conference – Championship is Saturday, 3/14 at 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central on ESPN. The Eastern Washington Eagles should face the Montana Grizzlies for this bid.
  • Conference USA (CUSA) – Championship is Saturday, 3/14 at 8:30 PM Eastern/7:30 PM Central on CBSSN. North Texas – the Mean Green are not just a good football team, but they are a 20 win team, and should rep this conference.
  • Southland Conference – Championship is Saturday, 3/14 at 9:30 PM Eastern/8:30 PM Central on ESPN 2. The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are a squad to watch. They beat Duke this year, and are a definite Cinderella in the making.
  • Western Athletic Conference (WAC) – Championship is Saturday, 3/14 at 10 PM Eastern/9 PM Central on ESPN U. The New Mexico State Aggies have owned this league for a decade. Another darling to pull of a Big Dance upset.
  • Big West Conference – Championship is Saturday, 3/14 at 11:30 PM Eastern/10:30 PM Central on ESPN 2. The University of Cal at Irvine Anteaters have a great mascot, and could go to back to back NCAA Tourneys.
  • Sun Belt Conference – Championship is Sunday, 3/15 at 2 PM Eastern/1 PM Central on ESPN 2. The AR Little Rock Trojans are the team to beat. I don’t see them losing, and they will be a trendy pick to pull an upset in the Big Dance.
  • Ivy League – Championship is Sunday, 3/15 at 12 Noon Eastern/11 AM Central on ESPN 2. They only do Semi Finals and Finals, but Yale should prevail and be a tough out.

Multi-bid Leagues

Can the Bruins Keep the Fun Going in the PAC 12 Tourney?
  • Mountain West (MWC) – Started on Wednesday, 3/4 – Final is Saturday, 3/7 at 5:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Central on CBS. With the Aztecs as a lock, they are only motivated to keep their 1 Seed alive. The Utah State Aggies have to get to the title game or fall out, while there are dangerous teams that could be bid stealers in UNLV and Nevada.
  • West Coast Conference (WCC) – Starts on Thursday, 3/5 – Final is Tuesday, 3/10 at 9 PM Eastern/8 PM Central on ESPN. The Zags are a 1 Seed at the moment, so running the table would cement that, but BYU and St. Mary’s both tourney teams may be able to knock them off. BYU’s stock is on the rise and more wins would lift their seed.
  • Big 12 – Starts Wednesday, 3/11 – Final on Saturday, 3/14 at 6 PM Eastern/5 PM Central on ESPN – Baylor and Kansas are secure, but early losses may knock them from the 1 Seed line. The two teams to watch are Texas, as they can play their way in, while Texas Tech may be playing its way out.
  • Big East – Starts Wednesday, 3/11 – Final on Saturday, 3/14 at 6:30 PM Eastern/5:30 PM Central on FOX – Probably the 2nd toughest conference should be a really fun tournament. Seton Hall can be a 2 Seed if they win out, and teams like Providence and Xavier could really help their standing with a deep run.
  • ACC – Starts Wednesday, 3/11 – Final on Saturday, 3/14 at 8:30 PM Eastern/7:30 PM Central on ESPN – NC State is the main Bubble team to watch there. The other 4 bids are pretty solidified. Duke needs to find its groove again.
  • PAC 12 – Starts Wednesday, 3/11 – Final on Saturday, 3/14 Saturday, 3/14 at 10:30 PM Eastern/9:30 PM Central on FS1- The PAC 12 has had a good resurgence this year, and there are up to 6 teams in this year. UCLA needs to get to the title game, and Stanford, USC and Arizona State can’t lose early.
  • A10 – Starts Wednesday, 3/11 – Final on Sunday, 3/15 at 1 PM Eastern/12 Noon Central on CBS – Dayton is the squad, and maybe if they keep winning, they can secure a 1 Seed. Richmond can still make an at large, but St. Louis and Rhode Island need to win the tournament to qualify.
  • SEC – Starts Wednesday, 3/11 – Final on Sunday, 3/15 at 1 PM Eastern/12 Noon Central on ESPN – Kentucky can’t get all the way to the 1 Seed, but winning out could get them to the 2 line if things fall their way. A lot of Bubble Teams here with Miss State being the leader. I don’t think the Vols or Arkansas can salvage their seasons here.
  • American Athletic Conference (AAC) – Starts on Thursday, 3/12 – Final on Sunday, 3/15 at 3:15 PM Eastern/2:15 PM Central on ESPN – The AAC is filled with Bubble Teams. Outside of Houston, Wichita State, Tulsa, and Cincinnati all are squarely on the Bubble.
  • Big Ten – Starts Wednesday, 3/11 – Final on Sunday, 3/15 at 3:30 PM Eastern/2:30 PM Central on CBS – The “toughest” conference in America could get up to 10 teams in the Dance. The big Bubble Teams are Rutgers, Indiana and Purdue, but others can really help seeding with deep runs.

This will be my final College Hoops post until the Field is set on Sunday, March 15th. I’ll put out a Tourney Preview post before the games begin. Enjoy the start of the best month of the year.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.