College Hoops: Bubble Watch

Selection Sunday is 3 1/2 weeks away. For all those teams on the fringe, there is not much time to get signature wins before the Conference Tourneys. After last week’s review, we will take a look at the Bubble.

Week in Review

• Oregon Needed Late Surge: The Buffs were in control in Eugene, but the Ducks showed me something. Down by almost double digits, they fought back to win 68-60 and grab a share of the PAC 12 lead.
• Baylor Stays Unbeaten in Big 12: The Bears are the #1 team for a reason, and they have been able to go unscathed in conference play so far. This time, the WVU Mountaineers were no match for Baylor in Waco. Led by Jared Butler’s 5 of 7 from deep (21 points), the Bears prepare for a date with Kansas this week. Baylor wins, 70-59.
• Ramblers Get OT Revenge: Loyola lost in OT at UNI last time, but this time after leading big in the first half survived a late Panther push which forced OT. Cameron Krutwig and Keith Clemons combined for 46 of the Ramblers’ 82 points to get the win in OT, 82-73. UNI still leads the Valley, but by only 1 game now.
• Kentucky Grabs Full Control of the SEC: Just 2 short weeks ago, the Tigers were undefeated in conference, but they have come crashing back to earth. Kentucky went into to Baton Rouge to grab sole control of the SEC with a couple weeks to play in the regular season. Cats win, 79-76.

Predictions: 4-0 – another good week for my predictions, let’s stay hot.

Bubble Watch

For those new to College Basketball, the Bubble refers to the teams that are on the edge of getting selected for the tournament. The field is 68 teams, but only 32 teams get automatic bids by winning their conference (usually the conference tournament champion). The other 36 teams are called “at large” teams, and make the field based on their resume. Each year the Selection Committee using different metrics to select teams. The new system uses a combination of the Net Rankings seen here: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Plus, they look at Quad 1 wins, which would be wins of teams in the Top 40 at home and Top 80 on the road. This along with conference record, “signature” wins over marquee opponents, and other elements like “bad” losses or Quad 3 or 4 losses along with the “eye test,” all make for debate.

Experts who predict the field called “Bracketologists” like Joe Lunardi for ESPN (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology) and Jerry Palm for CBS (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/) update their field based on their interpretations of the above criteria. I track both of their brackets along with my own predictions throughout the season (after January 1st).

The teams at the bottom of the 36 at large – the last 10 teams and the 10 teams outside of the field make up the “Bubble.” In evaluating these teams, I’m going to list each team’s KenPom ranking (KP) along with the Net Ranking (Net). I’ll take a look at this each week until Selection Sunday.

Safely In The Field (5 in)

• Florida (17-9, 9-4 SEC, KP 34, Net 35) – Great team metrically, but a severe under-performing team. They need to keep winning to stay in the field. JL, JP and Wegs have them in.
• USC (19-7, 8-5 PAC12, KP 55, Net 49) – Really not super safe, but the Bracketologists like this team for some reason more than AZ State and Stanford. JL, JP and Wegs have them in.
• Wichita State (19-6, 7-5 AAC, KP 38, Net 46) – Their early record is carrying them here. Metrics have improved in recent weeks, but they need another win or two to get more comfortable. JL, JP and Wegs have them in.
• Rhode Island (19-6, 11-2 A10, KP 43, Net 32) – Gaudy record in a better year in the A10 than normal has the Rams in comfortably. If they can win against Dayton in early March, then they are a complete lock. JL, JP and Wegs have them in.
• Xavier (17-9, 6-7 Big East, KP 42, Net 39) – I’m not in love with the Musketeers, but the metrics love them and so do the Bracketologists. JL, JP and Wegs have them in.

In But One Bad Loss Away From Out (Last 5 In)

• Cincinnati (17-8, 10-3 AAC, KP 40, Net 51) – I like this team a lot, but Palm has them barely in. They are tied with Houston on top and playing great ball in the AAC. They will get in. JL, JP and Wegs have them in.
• Oklahoma (16-10, 6-7 Big 12, KP 36, Net 47) – The Sooners are peaking at the right time, but they need to stay at or above .500 in the Big 12 to keep this spot. Win over WVU last week really helped. JL, JP and Wegs have them in.
• Virginia (17-7, 9-5 ACC, KP 52, Net 55) – The defending champs can’t score. So, that has killed them all year. Good record in a weak ACC year may get them in, but those metrics stink. JL, JP and Wegs have them in.
• Arizona State (17-8, 8-4 PAC12, KP 57, Net 50) – Weak metrics here, but that conference record is stronger than Stanford, so have to give them the nod head to head. Will come to results down the stretch vs. Stanford. JL, JP and Wegs have them in.
• Utah State (21-7, 10-5 MWC, KP 39, Net 41) – Big win at LSU early in the year helps, and now the Aggies can keep winning in conference to keep their spot. Win at CSU helped last week, too. JL, JP and Wegs have them in.

One Win Away From Being In (First 5 Out)

• Mississippi State (16-9, 7-5 SEC, KP 48, Net 53) – A solid team, but needs that signature win to jump back in. Wegs has them in, but JL and JP do not.
• Stanford (16-9, 5-7 PAC12, KP 44, Net 37) – A really strong Net Ranking and big win over Oregon, but sub-500 conference record keeps them out for me. JP have them in, but JL and Wegs do not.
• Indiana (16-9, 6-8 Big Ten, KP 47, Net 63) – I don’t see how they are in with that Net Ranking, but the Bracketologists like this team. I like Purdue over them to get in, but we will see how it shakes out over the next 2 weeks in conference. JP has them in, JL and Wegs do not.
• Purdue (14-13, 7-9 Big Ten, KP 25, Net 33) – Great metrics, but you have to win games. This will be a team hotly debated for the next month. They need some wins even before the Big Ten Tourney. JL has them in, but JP and Wegs have them out.
• Georgetown (15-10, 5-7 Big East, KP 46, Net 46) – People like this Hoya’s team, but I can’t get on board yet. Lunardi has them as a Last 4 in, but JP and Wegs have them out of the field. That 5-7 Big East record and 10 losses put them out for me.

Need to Make A Run (5 More)

• Minnesota (12-12, 6-8 Big Ten, KP 32, Net 44) – You have to be over .500 to make the Dance, so Gophers need at least 5 more wins to get in. JL, JP and Wegs have them out.
• NC State (16-9, 7-7 ACC, KP 60, Net 61) – .500 in the ACC is usually enough, but not in 2019-20. The Wolfpack need to keep winning and get over .500 to punch a ticket. Not in any brackets. JL, JP and Wegs have them out.
• Memphis (17-6, 6-4 AAC, KP 67, Net 60) – The Tigers are going to have a tough time making the Dance. The pre-season darlings will need some big wins down the stretch to steal a seed. JL, JP and Wegs have them out.
• Arkansas (16-10, 4-9 SEC, KP 50, Net 48) – Good metrics, but 4-9 in SEC is unacceptable. They will need a lot of conference wins to get in. JP has them in, but JP and Wegs do not.
• UNC Greensboro (21-6, 11-3 SoCon, KP 62, Net 56) – I believe UNC Greensboro and East Tennessee should make the Dance. Let’s see how it plays out. Wegs has them in, but JL has Furman in over them and JP has them out.

Feature Match Ups

• 3 Kansas at 1 Baylor – Saturday, 2/22 at 12 Noon Eastern/11 AM Central – The Bears won in Allen Fieldhouse earlier this year, and they haven’t lost since November. I can’t see them dropping this one either, but it should be a great game. I want to see if Coach Bill Self can get the Jayhawks to match the Baylor intensity. Baylor will still win this one.
• 14 Oregon at 24 Arizona – Saturday, 2/22 at 9 PM Eastern/8 PM Central – Another PAC 12 battle at the top of the standings. It is time for the Wildcats to show why they are better than the Ducks. On paper, Arizona is the best team in this conference, so I like them to beat the Ducks in this one.
• 2 Zags at 23 BYU – Saturday, 2/22 at 10 PM Eastern/9 PM Central – The Zags look unbeatable, but this Cougar team is really good. They are in the Top 20 in KenPom. They have a veteran team with size to battle the talented Zags. I like BYU to take this one or at least keep it close to scare the Zags. Take those points, but I like an upset here.

Mid-Major Focus

Mid-American Conference (MAC-tion)

• Akron at Bowling Green – Tuesday, 2/25 at 7 PM Eastern/6 PM Central – The 2 best teams in the MAC square off on Tuesday. The Zips took out the Eagles just last week in Akron, so there is a revenge angle here. I’m not sure Bowling Green can run with the Zips. So, I’m going to stick with Akron to get this win on the road and get the inside track on the bid with a better seed in the conference tourney.

Some great games this week to watch. Don’t miss them!

Wegs