We are still a solid month away from conference tournaments, so now it is all about that grind. Teams need to get wins to raise their metrics up. Plus, it is about now when the best teams will get hot before the Big Dance.
Last Week’s Recap
- Tigers Need OT to Beat LSU – Auburn may have been hot in the pre-conference in the SEC, but LSU entered Saturday with one loss in the league. Well, LSU looked game again leading early in this one by 12 at the half. However, this Auburn bunch drew upon their rabid fans to survive LSU’s Skylar Mays’ 30 points. After forcing OT, down 1 with. 9 seconds to go, Auburn’s J’Von McCormick (23 pmts, 9 boards and 9 assists) hit a clutch floater at the buzzer to win the game and give LSU their 2nd straight loss in the SEC, 91-90 in OT.
- Pirates Are For Real – I needed to see it myself, but this Seton Hall team is really good. After trailing at the half on the road at Nova by 4, Hall’s Myles Powell (19 points) took over down the stretch along with the under-rated Pirates’ D to win going away, 70-64 taking ahold of first place by a huge lead.
- Flyers Look Like A Final 4 Team – I, honestly, have not gotten to watch this team yet, but on Tuesday night, the Dayton Flyers put on a show. The Rhode Island Rams had won 10 of 11, but Dayton blitzed them with a 17-0 run to start the game, and even though they got within 9 at one point, the game was never in doubt. Beyond Obi Toppin (22 pts, 10 rebounds), the Flyers have length everywhere and pass the ball incredibly well. Watch out for this team in March. Flyers won, 81-67.
- Charleston Outguns The Tribe – The College of Charleston hit 47% from the field including 9 triples to just dust William & Mary on Thursday night, 68-50. Unfortunately for Charleston, they dropped one over the weekend to lose hold of 1st place in the CAA. Still a lot of games to play.
- And oh yeah, Duke beat UNC in OT, too….. Heels are going to miss the Tourney for the first time in 10 seasons.
Predictions: 3-1 this week, but the Flyers’ game was not close.
KenPom Review
KP Top 10
- Kansas – Jayhawks are good, but not immortal. The big win at WVU may solidify a 1 Seed in March.
- Zags – Really want to see them play BYU a week from Saturday, so stay tuned.
- Duke – Unimpressive at UNC, but in a weak ACC, they will keep winning.
- San Diego State – Not sure anyone can beat this team, even if they fall behind early, they rev it up to win.
- Baylor – Baylor is the best team in the Big 12, but host WVU this Saturday. Yes!!
- Dayton – URI was no match. What about VCU? Don’t think so….
- West Virginia – With loss at home against KU getting outscored 9-0 to close the game, can they follow that up at Baylor on Saturday with a win?
- Louisville – Best team in ACC, Duke knows it, too.
- Michigan State – Sparty stopped 3 game losing streak with last second win at Illinois, but major under-performer so far.
- Maryland – Terps sit on top of the toughest conference in America. How do they not get a higher seed, Lunardi?
Under-Rated Squads – Big Ten heavy – Sparty – 10 KP (26 AP), Ohio State 12 KP (32 AP), Purdue 14 KP (31 AP), Arizona 16 KP (30 AP), there’s that BYU team 17 KP (29 AP) and Michigan 24 KP (35 AP).
Over-Rated Squads – SEC heavy – LSU 34 KP (25 AP), Auburn 30 KP (11 AP), Kentucky 29 KP (12 AP), Nova 28 KP (15 AP), Illinois 27 KP (22 AP), and Oregon 26 KP (17 AP).
Key Match Ups
- 16 Colorado at 17 Oregon – Thursday, 2/13 at 9 PM Eastern/8 PM Central – The Buffs are the league leader right now by one game over the Ducks. Colorado won easily in Boulder in early January. The Ducks needs this one to build momentum for the Tourney. I think they will play big and grab a share of the PAC 12 lead on Saturday in Eugene.
- 14 West Virginia at 1 Baylor – Saturday, 2/15 at 4 PM Eastern/3 PM Central – The Mountaineers have hit the skids of late with back to back losses. Now, with a trip to Waco, the Bears will get a physical test. However, it is hard to see WVU getting over the top on the #1 Bears. Baylor will win.
- 12 Kentucky at 25 LSU – Tuesday, 2/18 at 9 PM Eastern/8 PM Central – LSU needs to get back on track to stay on top of the SEC. Kentucky is peaking at the right time, and a win in this one will go a long way to the seeding in the SEC Tournament. I like the Cats here on the road in a high scoring affair.
Mid-Major Match Up
Battle for Missouri Valley Supremacy
- Northern Iowa at Loyola (Chicago) on Saturday, 2/15 at 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central – A match up worthy of Sister Jean’s presence. The UNI Panthers are tough on a 5 game win streak including a 67-62 OT win over the Ramblers in Cedar Falls. This time Loyola will try to finish the job in the Gentile Center on the Lake. As much as I hate to say it given my bet with a friend, I think the Ramblers take this one and pull within 0.5 game of the league lead in this one.
Have fun this weekend with these games.
Wegs