With just a few weeks more to go in the regular season, teams need to make their move to solidify their NCAA Bracket position. The only way to do that is win those tough conference games, especially on the road.
Last Week Match Up Reviews
- Badgers Hold Off Spartans – Wisconsin is definitely a different team at home. After jumping out to a commanding 16 point lead, it took all they had to hold off Sparty in the 2nd and PG Cassius Winston’s 23 points. Luckily, the Badgers had enough of a lead to withstand 2 straight Winston 3s to make the final margin 1, 64-63.
- Jayhawks Put A Stop to Raiders – The NCAA runner-ups are going to need a little more to make the Dance. They played hard Saturday, but fell behind too much in the first in Allen Fieldhouse. G Devon Dotson made sure KU finished the job with 21 points, 6 boards and 3 assists to get the closer than expected win, 78-75.
- The Cardinal Stands Tall – Stanford is quietly have a great season, and even after trailing the Ducks by 8 at the break, the Cardinal didn’t flinch. Junior F Oscar da Silva was great with 27 points and 15 rebounds to power Stanford in the 70-60 win.
- The Osprey Grab First in ASun – North Florida has been tough at home, and that continued this week as Stetson as they lit it up from deep with 15 made triples in their 78-65 win.
Predictions: 4-0 this week in S/U picks. I’ll try to stay hot this week.
KenPom Review
Top Ten Teams:
- Kansas – The Jayhawks are really good at both ends of the floor, the only team in the Top 10 in both Offense (10th) and Defense (3rd).
- Duke – Duke faces UNC this, but the Heels aren’t good this year, and the Blue Devils are really good on Offense (3rd).
- Baylor – The #1 team in America is near the top, especially on D (4th). Still looking forward to that KU/Baylor rematch.
- San Diego State – The Aztecs are rising even higher in KP. They are 11th on O and 6th on D, which means a formidable team come March.
- Zags – The Zags get passed by the Aztecs here after a closer win than normal at University of SF. Still, they are the #1 Offense.
- Dayton – The Flyers may have the Player of the Year Soph F Obi Toppin, and that gives them the 2nd Best Offense in the land.
- West Virginia – The Mountaineers are playing less full court pressure than past years, but their half court D is incredible (2nd best).
- Louisville – The Cardinals are ahead of Duke in the standings, so maybe KP is wrong. We will see when they face off again soon.
- Michigan State – Sparty has struggled on the road, and that continued at Penn State. Barometer is falling.
- Maryland – The Terps are a really tough team. Their 7th rated Defense may be enough to get to a Regional Final this year.
Over-rated Teams – It’s an all SEC affair. Kentucky 37 in KP is 15th in the AP; LSU may be undefeated in the SEC, but only 32nd in KP (126th on D) – 18th AP; Auburn got a big win over Kentucky, but their 11th ranking in AP is way over-rated per KP (33rd).
Under-rated Teams – BYU is the top team to watch here – they sit at 18 in KP, while 33rd in the AP; Ohio State’s record does not match their metrics – 12th in KP, but only 28th in AP; Texas Tech needs more wins, but their numbers are excellent at 22nd overall in KP, but just 26 in the AP.
Key Match Ups
- 18 LSU at 11 Auburn on Saturday, 2/8 at 12 Noon Central/11 AM Central – Auburn is just the team to give the LSU their first loss. On paper these teams are even in KP, but Auburn is a much more balanced team, and I like their defense in this one. Auburn Tigers beat the LSU Tigers.
- 12 Seton Hall at 10 Villanova on Saturday, 2/8 at 2:30 PM Eastern/1:30 PM Central – The Hall has been really good this year, especially on D (11th), but I think Nova is playing at a high level. I like the Wildcats, but if the Pirates can win it, I’ll be a believer.
- Rhode Island at 6 Dayton on Tuesday, 2/11 at 7:30 PM Eastern/6:30 PM Central – Dayton remains unblemished in the A10, but this Rhode Island team is on the rise. Dayton may get the win at home here, but this is going to be closer than the line and a preview of road version on March 4th. Flyers win a close battle.
Mid-Major Match Up
Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) 1st Place Battle
- William & Mary at Charleston on Thursday, 2/6 at 7 PM Eastern/6 PM Central – There’s a 3 way tie on top of the CAA, and these two teams need this one to stay on top. The Tribe may have been playing well, but Charleston is in the Top 70 on Offense. So, I like Cougars at home here to win and grab that top spot leaving just Hofstra.
Catch some games as the clock is ticking until March.
Wegs