After 17 weeks of the regular season and 3 weeks of playoffs, Sunday will decide who is the Champion of the NFL. This match up is truly the 2 best teams, and we should be in for a treat.
Super Bowl – Sunday, 2/1 at 6:30 PM Eastern/5:30 PM Central on FOX (KC -1, 54.5 Total)
Team Analysis
AFC – Kansas City Chiefs
Offense: KC begins and ends with the reigning MVP, QB Patrick Mahomes. After an early season injury which limited his mobility, Mahomes has been incredible. His legs kept the ball moving in the AFC Title game over TEN, and his arm finished them off. One thing that is under-rated about Mahomes is his understanding of the game and opposing defenses. His command of HC Andy Reid’s offense is at a level that may not have been seen before. Perhaps others could understand what to do, but Mahomes has the ability to throw the ball literally anywhere on the field. With the full complement of weapons in TE Travis Kelce, WR Tyreek Hill and RB Damien Williams plus others that can stretch the D, the Chiefs are a tough group to stop. The key to this game for me is if the unsung part of this offense, the O-line can hold up against the SF Front 4 and that pressure. If they can, then Mahomes can be the wizard he is.
Defense: What makes the Chiefs contenders in 2019-20 more than last year? Their defense. Sure, they still give up points, but unlike last year, they can get enough stops to allow the Offense to carry the day. The additions in the off season at the top with DC Steve Spagunolo really is showing up over the 2nd half of the season. Spags required KC to acquire S Tyran Mathieu, who is a rover for this D. Plus, the switch to a 4-3 with quality ends like DE Frank Clark and Terrell Suggs plus a now healthy DT Chris Jones inside makes KC formidable. Their run defense can be had, but clearly, KC was able to stop RB Derrick Henry last week. It will be hard to stop the more varied SF attack though. I’m not in love with the CBs – Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller, but SF lacks the elite outside WRs to hurt them if the pass rush can get home.
Special Teams: KC has elite speed, so the return game is a factor. Plus, P Dustin Colquitt is excellent, as is K Harrison Butker. Not a weakness but a strength here.
NFC – San Francisco 49ers
Offense: The 49ers are a run-based team with a great play caller in HC Kyle Shanahan. Not sure anyone is as inventive in the running game, and allowing his talent to pummel defenses. At QB, Jimmy Garappolo didn’t have to do much in the playoffs. He has had good games, but he has also turned the ball over too much for my liking. Jimmy G does have some weapons in WR Emmanuel Sanders, TE George Kittle and WR Deebo Samuel. I think Samuel could be the X-factor here with his incredible size/speed combination. For SF to win, Jimmy G has to deliver the goods in the face of that pass rush. The run game is great, but SF won’t dominate this front.
Defense: The D line is the strength of this team. Rookie of the Year to be, DE Nick Bosa is a disruptor with an incredible blend of speed and explosiveness. With him opposite former Chief, Dee Ford and Arik Armstead, plus DeForest Buckner and Soloman Thomas, there is no better front 4. LB Kwon Alexander is the key to stopping the run game, and there is enough secondary with CB Richard Sherman. However, the weakness of this team is the secondary, and the big play is possible if the Chiefs can buy enough time for Mahomes. So, that is the key for me, the D Line vs. KC’s O Line.
Special Teams: K Robbie Gould, a former Bear, is as consistent as they come. He is money in the clutch, which they may need. The rest of the special teams are nothing special, so KC has an advantage there.
What does all this mean?
It is a match up of the league’s best Defense against the best Offense over the past 2 years. A match up of an offensive wizard in Andy Reid, and the young master in Kyle Shanahan.
Predictions: I like KC to win this game and end their 50 year title drought. It could clearly go the other way given the Vegas line, and that D Line could dominate the Chiefs physically. However, the Chiefs have been on a mission since Mahomes went down earlier this year. They have not lost since the Titans game in Week 11, and as good as SF D is, they can give up points and big plays. I do not trust Jimmy G to hold up against the pressure that the Spagnuolo D will bring. Assuming KC can slow the run down a bit, then Jimmy G will have to win the game, and I don’t see that happening.
Chiefs win S/U, Cover -1, and ironically, I like Under the 54.5. That will be a real sweat, but if KC can control the game some, SF may indeed struggle to score.
Who you got?
Wegs