The NFL playoffs are always entertaining, but Wild Card Weekend was incredible. A quick review before we get into the Divisional Round.
Wild Card
- Texans Survive in OT – On Saturday, the Bills came into HOU and were more than game. Trailing 13-0 at halftime, QB Deshaun Watson (247 yards passing, 1 TD, 55 yards rushing and a TD) would not let his Texans go down. After another FG, Watson began to display why he was such a stellar player at Clemson – first with an incredible TD run, then a TD pass to take the lead. BUF’s QB Josh Allen (264 yards passing, 92 yards rushing and a TD reception) was great in the first half, but in the 4th quarter about lost his mind with some questionable plays down the stretch with a terrible sack and ill advised pitch late. However, the Bills forced OT. In OT, a bad call on a blind side block led to a BUF punt. Then, Watson made a play, while 2 Bills’ defenders had him sacked around mid-field, he somehow spun out, completed a short pass that led to a long run after catch setting up the game winning FG. HOU won 22-19 in OT.
- Titans End Pats’ Dynasty – No matter what happens in the future, the TEN Titans went into NE in the Wild Card round, and beat the top ranked Pats’ D. The Pats grabbed the early lead, and even had a chance to blow the game open in the 2nd quarter, but a Titans’ stand forced a FG to make the game 13-7. Then, TEN leaned on RB Derrick Henry (34 carries, 182 yards rushing, 1 catch for 22 yards) for a go ahead TD with 35 seconds in the half. The second half was a ground war with no one giving ground. HC Mike Vrabel out-Belichicked Bill with some delay of game shenanigans to milk the clock. NE WR Julian Edelman dropped a key 2nd and 6 pass, that led to yet another punt, and the Titans were able to bleed the clock to almost nothing. With one more possession and minimal seconds to go, the great Tom Brady (209 yards passing and 1 INT) threw a Pick 6 on what could be his last pass in a Patriots’ uniform. Titans advance, 21-13.
- Cousins Outduels Brees – Never has QB Kirk Cousins won a big game, but on Sunday with the help of RB Dalvin Cook (94 yards rushing, 2 TDs plus 36 yards receiving), the Vikings outplayed the hometown Saints. After going up 10-3 early in the 2nd quarter, the Saints gave up 17 unanswered points. The real hero for the Saints in the 2nd half was not Brees, but another Saints’ QB, Taysom Hill, who threw the longest pass of the game (50 yards), 50 yards rushing, and 25 yards receiving and a TD. Brees wasn’t himself with a bad INT to set up the Vikings for a TD late in the 1st half, then a bad fumble in the 4th Quarter when the Saints were in MIN territory. The Saints were able to force OT with a late FG, but Cousins hit WR Adam Thielen for a long play to set up the game winning TD. Vikes won 26-20 in OT.
- Seahawks Get Another Road Win – The Seahawks entered Sunday 7-1 on the road, so going to Philly was nothing new. However, after a questionable hit on PHI QB Carson Wentz sending him out for the game early in the 1st Quarter, the Eagles were in trouble. SEA got plenty of yards in the air, as QB Russell Wilson (325 yards passing, 1 TD and 45 yards rushing) hit rookie WR DK Metcalf (160 yards receiving and a TD) early and often including a 53 yard TD that put SEA in control 17-6. Even with a good effort from career journeyman, QB Josh McCown (174 yards passing and 23 yards rushing), the Eagles couldn’t find the end zone. SEA advanced, 17-9.
Wild Card Picks Review: Rough One for the Sides: 1-3 S/U, 1-3 ATS, but 4-0 Totals (all Unders).
Divisional Predictions
- Vikings at 49ers (-7, Total 44.5) – Saturday, 1/11 at 4:35 PM Eastern/3:35 PM Central on NBC – The Vikings played a great game in NO on Sunday, but this is a really bad spot for them. Traveling cross-country to play a rested team that has extra prep time, so I don’t think they can win this one. Sure, if they play the same level of defense, they will have a shot to cover. However, I like the 49ers in this game, and with just a TD, I’ll say they cover the number. I still see the game going Under the 44.5.
- Titans at Ravens (-9.5, Total 46.5) – Saturday, 1/11 at 8:15 PM Eastern/7:15 PM Central on CBS – The Titans had the perfect formula to dethrone the champs in Foxboro. However, can it work again against a great run defense like BAL? I don’t think so. BAL is the best remaining rush D, and I think they will be ready to roll against Henry. 9.5 points is a lot for a hot Titans team, but teams off of the bye usually dominate. My guess is TEN keeps it close enough to Cover the +9.5. Total is Under 46.5.
- Texans at Chiefs (-9.5, Total 51) – Sunday, 1/12 at 3:05 PM Eastern/2:05 PM Central on CBS – The future is now in the NFL as 2 top young QBs face off in KC with Mahomes and Watson. The Texans beat the Chiefs earlier this year, but the Chiefs are way better on D now. Last week, the Bills exposed the HOU offense, and it took a superhuman effort by Watson to win in OT at home. I think the Chiefs crush here and move on to the AFC Title Game again. Chiefs S/U, Cover -9.5 and Over 51.
- Seahawks at Packers (-4, Total 47) – Sunday, 1/12 at 6:40 PM Eastern/5:40 PM Central on FOX – In a round that favorites usually dominate, this game will be the exception. The Packers defense will need to play their best game to slow down Russell Wilson. The Pack will also need to run the football to win. I think the Pack will come out hot, but SEA will win in the end, so I’ll take the Seahawks to win and cover the +4. This game will go Over 47.
Here we go into another fun week of NFL Playoff Action.
Wegs