The NFL season flew by, and now we start the playoffs this Saturday. After a year with a ton of injuries and new faces at the top of each conference, now we will see if the old guard is ready to give way to the new.
The Teams
NFC
In the NFC, the conference is stacked, as predicted. There are 3 teams with 13 wins, and outside of Philly, all teams have double digit wins.
1 Seed – 49ers took the 1 Seed with their win at SEA on Sunday night. They will host playoff games as long as they advance, but their health on defense is the main question mark. I like the offense, but can QB Jimmy G pull through if down big in a game.
2 Seed – Packers took the 2 Seed with some smoke and mirrors. Yes, the Pack were much better defensively mainly on the back of their +12 TO Differential. I question them against a good opponent if they can stop anyone. They did crush MIN without Cook, but can they stop a diversified offense.
3 Seed – Saints are the 3 Seed, so they will have to win outside of the Dome. That Saints D has not been as good earlier in the season, but it has proven able to play anywhere. Plus, the Offense is humming. I like their chances.
4 Seed – Eagles squeak in with the win over DAL. The Eagles have been in playoff mode for the last 4 weeks. Not sure if they are any good, but they will host a game.
5 Seed – Seahawks are dangerous with a 7-1 road record, but this team has not won by a lot of points in any game. Plus, they are a MASH unit. If they were healthy, then maybe, but that D has to play a lot better.
6 Seed – Vikings locked up the playoff berth in Week 15, but RB Dalvin Cook’s health is the key to this team. Their D is not as elite as 2 years ago.
AFC
1 Seed – Ravens are the 1 Seed, which they deserved. BAL crushed their competition ever since the loss to CLE in Week 4. QB Lamar Jackson will be the MVP, and the D is elite now with the addition of CB Marcus Peters. The team to beat.
2 Seed – Chiefs locked up the 2 Seed with the win last week, and mostly the win at NE. The Chiefs have improved on D to match their stellar offense. They will be tough to beat.
3 Seed – Patriots are the 3 Seed with the league’s best Defense. However, the Pats offense is not what it has been, and TB12 is finally showing some age.
4 Seed – Texans fall into the 4 Seed with the AFC South title. Hard to read this team, as they were able to beat both KC and NE this year, but lose to lesser teams like DEN and struggling to beat TB.
5 Seed – Bills earned their playoff bid a couple of weeks ago, and their Defense is at the top of the NFL. We will have to see if the offense is up to par to win a road playoff game.
6 Seed – Titans are the last team to qualify in the tournament on the back of RB Derrick Henry and the arm of QB Ryan Tannehill who stepped in mid-season.
Wegs Playoff Index
| 2019 | Cum. Rank | |
| AFC 1 | Ravens | 2.67 |
| AFC 3 | Patriots | 3.17 |
| NFC 1 | 49ers | 4.00 |
| NFC 3 | Saints | 5.00 |
| AFC 2 | Chiefs | 5.17 |
| NFC 6 | Vikings | 6.33 |
| AFC 6 | Titans | 7.83 |
| AFC 5 | Bills | 7.83 |
| NFC 5 | Seahawks | 8.00 |
| NFC 2 | Packers | 8.17 |
| NFC 4 | Eagles | 9.00 |
| AFC 4 | Texans | 10.50 |
Wild Card Weekend Match Ups & Predictions
Bills at Texans (-2.5, Total 43.5) – Saturday, 1/4 at 4:35 PM Eastern/3:35 PM Central on ABC – A very intriguing match up here. The Texans have played in this time slot every single year, and they typically lose – save playing the Raiders a couple years ago without Carr. Watson will make a difference, and I see JJ Watt may play for the Texans, however I really like this Bills team. They have played well in big games this year. So, I’m going out on a limb with Bills winning S/U, Covering +2.5 an Under the 43.5.
Titans at Patriots (-5, Total 44) – Saturday, 1/4 at 8:15 PM Eastern/7:15 PM Central on CBS – The Pats haven’t played on Wild Card weekend in a long time, but despite a putrid offense, I find it hard to side with the Titans here. The Titans rely heavily on RB Derrick Henry who should be healthy, but I know Belichick will take him away. That puts the NFL’s best pass defense in play against the Titans and Tannehill. I’ll take the Pats and they will cover the -5, Total Under 44.
Vikings at Saints (-7.5, Total 49.5) – Sunday, 1/5 at 1:05 PM Eastern/12:05 PM Central on FOX – I like the Saints here. The Saints’ Offense has been cranking the past 4 weeks, and the defense can get pressure on Cousins. Even if Cook plays, I think the Saints will outgun the Vikes. Saints win, Cover -7.5 and Under 49.5.
Seahawks at Eagles (+1.5, Total 45) – Sunday, 1/5 at 4:40 PM Eastern/3:40 PM Central on NBC – The Seahawks went to Philly earlier in the year and won easily. However, that Seahawks team was healthy with first and second string RBs. Plus, Clowney was 100%. The Seahawks are better than the Eagles, but the Eagles defensive line is still good. This game will be a close one, and the line shows it. I would pick the Seahawks to win, but I’ll take the points (+1.5) with the Eagles at home, and Under 45.
Divisional Round Predictions
Seahawks at 49ers – Saturday, 1/11 at 4:35 PM Eastern/3:35 PM Central on FOX – This would be a rematch of the Week 17 game determining the NFC West winner. Should be another great game, but SF will win this match up this time. The 49ers should have a game plan to score, and of course, Wilson can pull some magic but the Seahawks don’t have enough bodies in this one.
Bills at Ravens – Saturday, 1/11 at 8:15 PM Eastern/7:15 PM Central on CBS – The Ravens are a freight train that no one seems to be able to stop. It’s going to take more than the Bills to do it. Now, BUF did play the Ravens as tough as anyone the past 6 weeks, but with a week off, I do think the Ravens will be able to simply outscore the Bills. QB Lamar Jackson is ready, but will RB Mark Ingram with his calf strain. I don’t think it matters here, so I’ll take the Ravens to advance.
Patriots at Chiefs – Sunday, 1/12 at 3:05 PM Eastern/2:05 PM Central on CBS – A rematch of the 2018 AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs after getting whipped in the first almost came back, but lost in OT. The Pats do not have the firepower this year to keep up with the Chiefs. Plus, you may not have noticed, but the Chiefs have been balling on D lately. The Chiefs have given up 11.5 PPG in their 6 game win streak. So, the Chiefs will get back to the title game.
Saints at Packers – Sunday, 1/12 at 6:40 PM Eastern/5:40 PM Central on FOX – Another great game in the divisional round here. The Saints have been so close to the Super Bowl 2 years running, and the Pack may be back in record but not by metrics. I like the Saints to upset the Pack in Lambeau. Should be a classic game, but the Pack won’t be able to stop the Saints unless it is a blizzard. Saints advance.
Championship Sunday – Sunday, 1/18
Times are TBD on these games yet, but one game will start at 3:05 PM Eastern/2:05 PM Central followed by the other game at 6:40 PM Eastern/5:40 PM Central.
Saints at 49ers – A rematch of the meeting in Week 14 where the teams combined for 94 points. Hard to see the defenses playing that badly again, especially outdoors in Levi Stadium, however I think the Saints’ experience will really help in this spot. SF has not been on this stage with any of these players except for CB Richard Sherman, but that was with SEA. The youth and inexperience will show in this match up, and despite SF playing great D for the first 12 weeks of the year, that defense is banged up. The Saints, if they get through GB, will be ready to get to the Super Bowl which they were robbed of last year. This will be QB Drew Brees’s swan song, so I see the Saints representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Chiefs at Ravens – Another rematch here, but a much earlier match up before the full emergence of Lamar Jackson and this offense. The Chiefs will need to travel to Baltimore and win on the road in a tough environment. I still think they will do it. To me, this game is the Super Bowl, as the winner will be the favorite in Miami. My metrics say the Ravens are the team this year to beat, but there is something about this Chiefs team. I’ll take the Chiefs to get past the Ravens in, hopefully, the best game of the year.
Super Bowl – Sunday, 2/2 – Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL at 6:30 PM Eastern/5:30 PM Central
Saints vs. Chiefs – The weather can be rainy in Miami in February. So, the weather could be a factor here for both offenses. As good as Drew Brees is and Miami is where he won his Super Bowl, I think the Chiefs are the better team here. They will be able to score on the Saints D, and more importantly put pressure on Brees to slow down the offense enough to get the win. I don’t know the total yet, but it will be high. Should be an entertaining game. Chiefs win the Super Bowl.
With my picks out there, I’d like to hear your picks and predictions. I’ll provide weekly analysis through the Super Bowl on lines and totals, as well.
Wegs