The NFL is such a wacky league. However, the best part about it is the teams have to earn their spot in the post season. With so many key divisional match ups in Week 16 and 17, the playoff scenarios get worked out pretty quickly.
Week 16 Recap
- Patriots Still Kings of the East – The Bills have had a great season, and they even had the lead later in Foxboro. Leave it to the Pats to go on a game winning drive and get the 2 point conversion (for the Cover) to beat BUF and take the East yet again, 24-17.
- 49ers Can Be 1 Seed – The Rams will not return to defend their NFC Crown this year, as the 49ers were able to score late and knock, them out, 34-31. Neither defense showed up in this one, which does not bode well for SF in the playoffs. With a win at SEA, they can grab the 1 Seed.
- Saints Starting to Click – The Titans needed a win to get their playoff berth, and after leading 14-0, it seemed possible. Then, New Orleans found their offense scoring 24 unanswered. In the end, NO won, 38-28 in a virtual shootout, which shows the Saints can win and score on the road.
- Steelers Lose Control – With a win, PIT would have been in control of their own destiny and the TEN loss would have given them a spot virtually. However, the Jets forced QB Duck Hodges into multiple INTs, and not even Mason Rudolph could save them. Jets won 16-10.
- Eagles Come to Play – In Philly on Sunday, it was a win or go home scenario for the Eagles, and they showed up. Sure, the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott played through an arm injury, but the Cowboys played uninspired football. The Eagles were able to run the ball all over the Dallas D, and slow the Cowboys offense to a crawl winning, 17-9. Now, the Eagles have the inside track at the NFC East crown.
- Vikings Come Up Small in Prime Time – Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins entered MNF with an 0-8 record. He left the game with yet another loss, really not his doing, as the MIN O-line was terrible allowing 5 sacks (3.5 to Zadarius Smith). The Pack killed the Vikings on the ground with 184 yards and a dominant 36:55 in time of possession in the 23-10 win to take the NFC North Crown.
Week 16 Predictions: S/U – 2-2, ATS 2-2, Totals 1-3
Playoff Scenarios
AFC
Available Spots: There is one spot on the line now for the 6 Seed.
- Titans – Win and they are in. They play HOU is not playing for much. HOU can ascend to the 3 Seed with a Chiefs loss, but it’s more likely, they will let the Titans get in. We will see.
- Steelers – Win and Titans lose, and they are in. Steelers take on BAL who has the 1 Seed locked up, and they will sit QB Lamar Jackson and RB Mark Ingram (who strained his calf). Hard to see BAL just laying down, but RG3 will need to run that dynamic offense.
- Raiders – Somehow the 7-8 Raiders have a shot. OAK has to win at DEN, they also need both TEN and PIT to lose, and for IND to beat the Jags. Don’t ask me how the Raiders get in over the Titans who beat them, but I guess head to head is not as important as other tiebreakers. Still, OAK will not make the playoffs.
Seeding: Mostly, locked up, but some scenarios exist.
- 1 Seed – BAL – Locked up
- 2 Seed – NE wins, and they are the 2 Seed. If they lose and the Chiefs win, then NE drops to the 3 and KC to the 2. Really means who gets the bye and hosts a game in Divisional round (where NE is virtually undefeated). NE plays MIA – yuck, and KC plays the Chargers.
- 3 Seed – KC wins and NE wins, then Chiefs stay here. However, if KC loses to LAC, and HOU beats the Titans, then HOU jumps to 3 Seed. Not very likely, but it would really make a big difference in the divisional round,.
- 4 Seed – HOU is here now, and unless KC loses, they will stay here. Really, looks like HOU may not be motivated against TEN in Week 17.
- 5 Seed – BUF is locked in this seed. So, they will play either HOU or KC in the Wild Card round.
- 6 Seed – TEN right now, but see above for scenarios. This team will play KC or HOU in the Wild Card round.
NFC
Available Spots: 5 teams are locked, and only one spot – the NFC East title is on the line.
- Eagles – PHI is the 4 Seed now, and with a win over the Giants in NY, they are in. Their win over DAL in Week 15 gave them this chance. So, let’s see if they can follow through. The Giants stink, but their offense was on fire last week at WAS.
- Cowboys – DAL needs to win against WAS at home, and then see if the Eagles lose at NYG. DAL and PHI play in the late slot, so they will be scoreboard watching.
Seeding: Nothing is really set except for the 6 Seed.
- 1 Seed – SF currently holds this slot, but they need to beat SEA to keep it. Their win over the Rams helped, but if they do lose to SEA who is banged up, then they will drop to the 5 Seed. GB can take the 1 Seed with a win and SF loss. NO can take the 1 Seed with a win over CAR and losses by SF and GB. So, it really comes down to the SNF game to know.
- 2 Seed – Currently the Packers hold the 2 Seed with their win at MIN. If SF wins, and GB wins, then it will stay this way. If that doesn’t happen, it is going to get weird. SEA beats SF, GB loses to DET, then SEA is 2 Seed. NO can be the 2 Seed with SF win and GB loss. So, if GB wins in the early time slot, then they can be no worse than 2 Seed.
- 3 Seed – NO holds the 3 Seed, but they can ascend to the top spot with losses by SF and GB. Wins by SF and GB would keep them here. If SEA wins and GB wins, then SEA would move to the 3 Seed and NO to the 2 Seed. In that early time slot, CAR-NO and GB-DET will help clarify things a lot. Then, it will be all up to the SF-SEA match up.
- 4 Seed – This is nearly locked. PHI is here now, if they win, then they are they the 4 Seed and will play the loser of the SF-SEA game. DAL can be the 4 Seed with a win and PHI loss at NYG.
- 5 Seed – This is SEA now, but the loser of the SF-SEA game goes here. It may be a good spot to be in, as the 5 Seed draws the lowly NFC East winner in the Wild Card round.
- 6 Seed – MIN is locked into this spot with their loss against GB on MNF.
Wegs Index – Week 17
| OFF YD/G | PPG | DEF YD/G | PPG Ag | TO Diff | Cum. Rank | |
| Ravens | 414.5 | 33.5 | 309.4 | 18.1 | 10 | 3.0 |
| Patriots | 354.1 | 26.4 | 268.3 | 13.2 | 23 | 4.2 |
| 49ers | 379.9 | 30.2 | 277.4 | 19.3 | 4 | 5.3 |
| Chiefs | 382.1 | 28 | 348.5 | 19.1 | 7 | 7.3 |
| Vikings | 357.1 | 25.9 | 341.9 | 18.8 | 13 | 7.7 |
| Saints | 373.5 | 27.7 | 333.3 | 22.1 | 12 | 8.0 |
| Cowboys | 425.8 | 25.8 | 330.7 | 20.3 | -2 | 9.2 |
| Bills | 331.6 | 20.5 | 300.1 | 16.4 | 6 | 11.5 |
| Packers | 339.7 | 23.5 | 355.8 | 19.5 | 12 | 12.2 |
| Titans | 352.9 | 24.5 | 363.4 | 21.1 | 5 | 13.3 |
| Seahawks | 376.2 | 25.6 | 380.5 | 24.8 | 12 | 13.5 |
| Rams | 371.6 | 24.2 | 336.1 | 22.7 | -5 | 13.8 |
| Steelers | 284 | 18.6 | 304.1 | 18.3 | 8 | 14.5 |
| Eagles | 352.9 | 23.4 | 327.3 | 22.5 | -5 | 15.0 |
| Bucs | 402.5 | 29.1 | 342 | 28.1 | -11 | 15.0 |
| Texans | 366.1 | 24.3 | 383.1 | 23.3 | 1 | 15.8 |
| Chargers | 367.5 | 21.1 | 311.5 | 20.9 | -16 | 16.3 |
| Colts | 330.9 | 22.7 | 346.4 | 22.3 | 3 | 16.8 |
| Falcons | 380.1 | 23.5 | 357.6 | 25.1 | -7 | 17.5 |
| Bears | 294.1 | 17.3 | 325.7 | 18.6 | -2 | 18.0 |
| Broncos | 302.6 | 17.7 | 327.7 | 20.1 | 1 | 18.5 |
| Browns | 342.8 | 20.8 | 361.6 | 24 | -6 | 21.0 |
| Raiders | 355.4 | 19.9 | 362.6 | 26.9 | -2 | 21.7 |
| Cardinals | 338.3 | 22.5 | 400.5 | 27.4 | 4 | 22.0 |
| Jets | 273.1 | 17.5 | 324.1 | 23.5 | -6 | 22.5 |
| Lions | 349.6 | 21.4 | 398.3 | 26.7 | -5 | 22.8 |
| Jaguars | 341 | 17.5 | 382.1 | 25.1 | -2 | 23.8 |
| Panthers | 342.7 | 22 | 374.2 | 28.5 | -11 | 24.2 |
| Giants | 334.6 | 21.6 | 375.8 | 27.8 | -15 | 25.2 |
| Redskins | 274.9 | 16.7 | 376.3 | 25.9 | 2 | 25.8 |
| Bengals | 320.5 | 16.4 | 399.1 | 26.5 | -16 | 29.2 |
| Dolphins | 304.7 | 18.6 | 400.8 | 31.3 | -12 | 29.5 |
Key Match Ups in Week 17
- Eagles at Giants (+4.5, Total 45) – Sunday, 12/20 at 4:25 PM Eastern/3:25 PM Central on FOX – Pretty simple here, Eagles just need to win, right? Yet, the Giants almost beat the Eagles on MNF with Eli at the helm. With QB Daniel Jones back and looking good at WAS, I think the Eagles are going to struggle in this one. They will get the win and Division, and that’s all they care about, but I’ll take the 4.5 and the Giants – Under 45.
- Titans at Texans (+3.5, Total 45.5) – Sunday, 12/29 at 4:25 PM Eastern/3:25 PM Central on CBS – The Titans really need this one. The Texans may just want to take their 4 Seed and rest, however any time a division rival can eliminate their opponent now, it is a good idea – think Bears-Packers in 2010-2011 season. I do like the Titans to win this one, but 3.5 is too many points for me, HOU covers, and Over 45.5.
- Steelers at Ravens (+2, Total 38) – Sunday, 12/29 at 4:25 PM Eastern/3:25 PM Central on CBS – The Steelers need the win, and the Ravens are resting their guys, I get it. However, wouldn’t it be wise for the Ravens to just eliminate the Steelers themselves? The Ravens may be resting their key offensive guys, but their defense has been great even if they rest S Earl Thomas. PIT has trouble scoring against anyone. I like BAL to win S/U, to Cover and Under the 38.
- 49ers at Seahawks (+3, Total 47) – Sunday, 12/29 at 8:20 PM Eastern/7:20 PM Central on NBC – The battle for the NFC West Crown comes down to the last game of the regular season. The Seahawks have a litany of injuries with RBs – Rashad Penny and Chris Carson out for the year. SEA has re-signed Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin to take over the run game. However, it is the defense I’m concerned about. DE Jadaveon Clowney has been out for 2 weeks, and it shows. SF has not been much better on D in recent weeks with LB Kwon Alexander out. I still think SF is healthier in this one, so they will win, but I’ll take the points with SEA in this nip and tuck game, Over 47.
Ok, bring it on. Next week will will take on the Playoff Bracket and predictions.
Wegs