We enter into the final month of the NFL season when the playoff picture gets clarified. After reviewing Week 12, let’s take a deep dive into the playoff picture.
Week 12 Review
- Texans Outlast Colts – The AFC South is going to come down to the wire, again. HOU got the win it needed behind QB DeShaun Watson to WR Will Fuller for 140 yards. The win, 20-17, puts HOU in first at 7-4.
- Seahawks Go to 6-0 on Road – As the Russell Wilson MVP tour continued, the Seahawks went into Philly and crushed the Eagles’ playoff hopes, 17-9. Wilson’s stat line wasn’t great – 200 yards passing, 1 TD and 1 INT, however he just keeps winning games. SEA is just one game from home field advantage at 9-2.
- Pats Slow Down Cowboys – The Cowboys brought the #1 Offense into the rain in Foxboro, and they left only scoring 3 FGs. NE needed a blocked punt to set up the only TD of the game, but the 13-9 win puts NE in prime position to be the 1 Seed again in the AFC.
- Niners Manhandle the Pack – The SF D line just big boy-ed the GB O line. It’s kinda strange how SF looks bad against lesser teams like AZ, but they step up when they need to. SF dominates, 33-14. SF is the 1 Seed for a reason, but can they hold it down the stretch?
- Ravens Are Looking Like Champs – The Ravens went to LA and completely laid waste to the Rams. Lamar Jackson threw for 5 TDs, and the defense dominated the flaccid Rams’ O. This team looks like the best team in the NFL right now by a lot.
Playoff Preview
With 5 games to play, it is the stretch run for the team with a chance.
AFC
1 Seed – Patriots (10-1) – NE does have to play the HOU on the road and KC and Bills at home. 1 loss could knock them behind BAL, but if they beat HOU – I like them to be the #1 Seed again.
2 Seed – Ravens (9-2) – BAL will need to beat SF at home and then BUF on the road. Not sure the Browns (who beat them) or Steelers will give them any resistance later in December. I still see them losing one more game and staying in the 2 seed, but watch out for this team in January.
3 Seed – Chiefs (7-4) – KC has been suspect at best, especially on defense. They still have to fend off OAK for the division with a match up this week, then at NE. So, it hard to see them any better than the 3 Seed. I think they will be the 3 in the end, too.
4 Seed – Texans (7-4) – The most contentious division in football will have the Division Champ in this spot. I see HOU losing to NE this week, then a split with the Titans. That gets them to 10 Wins (assuming wins over DEN and TB) to win the division.
5 Seed – Bills (8-3) – BUF has a tough schedule to finish out – road games at DAL, PIT and NE, then home game against BAL. If BUF wins 2 games, then they are in – at PIT and home against NYJ are the key games. I still like this team, but it is going to be close. 9-7 would get them in a like opponents battle with IND, as they would lose the tiebreaker with CLE and PIT (if they lose that game).
6 Seed – Steelers (6-5) – If the season ended today, I believe PIT would edge out the Colts due to the head to head win. PIT is not likely to make the playoffs with Duke Hodges at QB though, but they can do some damage to others. They play CLE and BUF at home, plus BAL on the road to end the season. I think they will finish 8-8, but if they can get 3 wins (BUF/CLE, AZ and NYJ) then it will come down to like opponents with CLE as they have beaten IND and need to beat BUF. Crazy scenario.
Outside the AFC slots, but alive and well:
Colts (6-5) – IND has a favorable schedule as they own the Titans and CAR at home with TB and JAC on the road – all possible wins. I see a definite loss to the Saints in NO in Week 15. They should finish 9-7 at worst, and I think they are in again this year.
Titans (6-5) – TEN will need to earn a spot – on the road at IND, OAK and HOU, plus home games vs HOU and NO. Brutal schedule there. I’m looking at an 8-8 finish at best and miss the playoffs.
Raiders (6-5) – OAK laid an egg at the Jets, which really hurt their chances. They have KC, LAC and DEN on the road with TEN and JAC at home. Looks like an 8-8 season to me. Good improvement, but the loss this week cost them a real shot at the playoffs.
Browns (5-6) – CLE is the only other team that has a shot. Their schedule is extremely easy, so the question is can they close 4-1 (which means 7-1 to end the year). Road games at PIT, AZ and CIN with home games vs CIN and BAL. Looking at it, if they beat the Steelers this week, then I think they can do it. It will come down to the tiebreakers – they beat BUF head to head plus if they beat PIT – CLE can go 8-4 in the AFC edging out IND (projected for 7-5).
My prediction is 1 – NE, 2 – BAL, 3 – KC, 4- HOU, 5 -BUF and 6 – CLE. IND will be so close again at 9-7, so they need a little help from PIT and BAL to get the 6th spot. I don’t see the Raiders, Steelers or Titans making it.
NFC
1 Seed – 49ers (10-1) – With the big win vs. GB, the 49ers are in control of their own destiny. They haven’t locked up their own division yet, as they need to go to SEA in Week 17, plus tough games at BAL and NO, while hosting the Rams in Week 16. It is hard to see this team holding this position.
2 Seed – Saints (9-2) – NO had to sweat one out against CAR, but they are in the driver’s seat again for the 1 Seed with the early season win vs SEA and hosting SF in Week 14. They have the easier schedule at ATL, TEN and CAR while hosting SF and IND. I think they will finish 12-4 at worst here, and likely 13-3.
3 Seed – Packers (8-3) – The Pack had a chance to jump to the near 1 Seed, but the loss at SF hurts that. GB is not guaranteed to win the division over MIN, as they have to go to MIN in Week 16. However, I like their schedule – road games at NYG, MIN and DET, while hosting WAS and CHI. That looks like a 12-4 season to me. They should win NFC North and be at least the 3 Seed.
4 Seed – Cowboys (6-5) – DAL is not great, but they are well ahead of the Eagles with a better record and a win against them head to head. DAL has 3 tough games left – home against the Bills and Rams, then at PHI in Week 16 – I see wins over CHI (road) and WAS in Week 17. I think they will get to 10 wins.
5 Seed – Seahawks (9-2) – Wilson is making it happen for this young team, and they believe they can take the NFC West. A few tough opponents left – home against MIN and SF with a road game at Rams in Week 14 – at worst an 11 win team, which gets them in. If they can take out MIN this week, then I see a showdown in Week 17 for the division against SF – I like them winning that one. SEA should win this division.
6 Seed – Vikings (8-3) – Barring a miracle, the Vikes should be in the dance again. For the Vikes to win the division, they have to beat SEA this week, because GB will probably not lose their other games outside of the trip to MIN. That leaves MIN at 12-4, at best, but the loss to the Bears puts them one game behind GB in the division record at 4-2.
Only Two Other Teams to speak of here:
Rams (6-5) – With the loss to BAL, the Rams have to run the table to make the playoffs. It’s not likely, but they do get the Cardinals twice. They will then have to beat SEA at home and DAL and SF on the road. Not looking good for the NFC Champs returning to the dance.
Eagles (5-6) – The Eagles have one path to the playoffs – win the NFC East. PHI has an easy schedule – on road at MIA, WAS and NYG, plus the Giants again at home. Can they beat the Cowboys at home in Week 16? I don’t see it, personally, but PHI could definitely get to 9 wins with this schedule and it only takes the win against DAL to do it. DAL will have to lose either the Bills or Rams to make this a possibility.
My prediction is 1 – Saints, 2 – Seahawks, 3 – Packers, 4 – Cowboys, 5 – 49ers and 6 – Vikings – Rams and Eagles will be at home.
Wegs Index Week 13
| OFF YD/G | PPG | DEF YD/G | PPG Ag | TO Diff | Cum. Rank | |
| 49ers | 382.3 | 30.2 | 248 | 14.8 | 6 | 3.5 |
| Ravens | 433.3 | 35.1 | 322.7 | 18.4 | 8 | 4.0 |
| Patriots | 352.8 | 27.3 | 256.4 | 10.6 | 19 | 4.5 |
| Cowboys | 433.4 | 26.8 | 318.5 | 19.1 | -2 | 7.3 |
| Vikings | 378.6 | 26.3 | 338.6 | 18.6 | 4 | 8.3 |
| Saints | 368.9 | 24.7 | 321.3 | 20.9 | 8 | 9.3 |
| Bills | 352.7 | 21 | 288.6 | 15.7 | 0 | 10.8 |
| Chiefs | 396.1 | 28 | 375.7 | 23.3 | 5 | 11.0 |
| Seahawks | 385.4 | 26.5 | 370.3 | 23.9 | 9 | 11.3 |
| Texans | 381.6 | 24.1 | 367.3 | 22.6 | 0 | 13.3 |
| Titans | 333.2 | 22.3 | 359.5 | 19.7 | 4 | 14.0 |
| Steelers | 288.5 | 19.6 | 320.6 | 19.3 | 10 | 14.5 |
| Bears | 269.3 | 18 | 315.6 | 17.1 | 3 | 15.0 |
| Packers | 341.6 | 23.5 | 380.5 | 22 | 8 | 15.2 |
| Colts | 339.5 | 22.2 | 332 | 20.5 | -2 | 15.8 |
| Chargers | 363.6 | 20.4 | 317.5 | 19.8 | -9 | 15.8 |
| Rams | 353.3 | 22.6 | 338.7 | 22.1 | -5 | 16.8 |
| Bucs | 386.4 | 28.4 | 368.6 | 30.5 | -10 | 18.0 |
| Browns | 354.2 | 21.2 | 338.5 | 22.9 | -3 | 18.2 |
| Panthers | 347 | 23.5 | 367.1 | 26.5 | 0 | 18.5 |
| Eagles | 338.4 | 22.1 | 325.7 | 22.5 | -5 | 18.5 |
| Lions | 378.5 | 23.6 | 396.2 | 26.5 | -1 | 19.0 |
| Jaguars | 370.1 | 19 | 364.5 | 24 | 0 | 19.2 |
| Broncos | 302.8 | 15.9 | 321.1 | 19.7 | -2 | 19.3 |
| Raiders | 356.8 | 20.7 | 371.1 | 25.8 | 1 | 20.5 |
| Cardinals | 343.9 | 22.5 | 415.2 | 28.8 | 4 | 22.2 |
| Falcons | 371.4 | 22 | 376.3 | 27 | -8 | 22.3 |
| Jets | 262.1 | 18 | 321.1 | 23.5 | -5 | 22.8 |
| Redskins | 253.4 | 13.1 | 369 | 24.5 | 0 | 25.5 |
| Giants | 315 | 19.7 | 377.5 | 28 | -11 | 27.3 |
| Bengals | 303.2 | 14.3 | 417.2 | 26.5 | -12 | 29.3 |
| Dolphins | 264.9 | 14.8 | 400.9 | 31.5 | -14 | 31.0 |
Key Match Ups
- Browns at Steelers (+2, Total 39.5) – Sunday, 12/1 at 1 PM Eastern/12 Noon Central on CBS – A rematch of the ugly events from just a couple weeks ago, but more importantly, this is an elimination game in the AFC. The loser will likely miss the playoffs outright. It’s hard to back the Steelers in this one, as the QB situation kills this team. Duck Hodges will likely get the start, and that is all the Browns need after the suspension of Myles Garrett. Browns win and Cover -2, Total Under 39.5.
- Titans at Colts (-2.5, Total 43.5) – Sunday, 12/1 at 1 PM Eastern/12 Noon Central on CBS – The AFC South is still wide open, despite the analysis above. The Titans can’t seem to beat the Colts no matter who is at QB. I feel like TEN is the better team, but can they get the job done on the road. I think they can winning and covering the +2.5 with a total Under 43.5.
- Patriots at Texans (+3, Total 45) – Sunday, 12/1 at 8:20 PM Eastern/7:20 PM Central on NBC – The Pats’ D has been incredible in their wins, but Watson has played well against this D before. HOU just needs to get the Pats to have to score. It is hard to bet against the Pats ever, but I think they win the game, but not cover the 3.5. Total is Under the 45.
- Vikings at Seahawks (-3, Total 48.5) – Monday, 12/2 at 8:15 PM Eastern/7:15 PM Central on ESPN – The best game of the week is the last one. The Vikings are coming off the bye and playing a red hot SEA team. However, the SEA are just 3-2 at home, and they have failed to cover at home in any game this year. So, I think the Vikes keep it close enough to cover the +3, but lose with the Total Over the 48.5.
And yes, I know SF and BAL are playing, but in terms of playoff positioning, these 4 games are bigger. Enjoy Week 13!
Wegs