Week 11 shows us that the experts don’t know jack. In a week where top teams dropped like flies, it reminds us that any team can win any week.
Week 10 Review
- Falcons Rise: The Falcons have had 2 straight years with injuries and poor performance. However, after the bye, the Falcons looked like the one loss team, as the defense held the Saints to just 9 points en route to the 26-9 road win.
- The Fins Weren’t Done: Most people thought the Dolphins got their win, and they would just fold the rest of the year. Well, the Colts played with fire again in a close game, and the Fins took advantage with the 16-12 road win.
- Titans Big Boy the Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes returned and played well with 446 yards passing and 3 TDs, but the Chiefs’ D wasn’t up to the task, as Derrick Henry ran for 188 yards and 2 TDs. The Titans trailed in the 4th when QB Ryan Tannehill found Adam Humphries for a TD with just 22 seconds to win 35-32.
- Cousins Wins Big One: A huge SNF match up pitted DAL and MIN. MIN turned to RB Dalvin Cook a ton in this one, but QB Kirk Cousins played mistake-free football shrugging off the critics, while DAL and their poor play calling late cost them in the 28-24 home defeat.
- ‘Hawks Knock Off 49ers: SF entered MNF undefeated, and after the 1st Quarter it looked like another win as they led 10-0. However, DE Jadeveon Clowney turned it up with a fumble TD and tons of pressure on Garappolo as it led to 21 unanswered points. The 49ers answered to force OT, but in OT, the new SF Kicker missed a 47 yarder (badly). QB Russell Wilson led the offense to the game winning FG and a 27-24 win.
Predictions Review: S/U 2-2, ATS 2-2, Totals 1-3
Wegs Index Week 11
| OFF YD/G | PPG | DEF YD/G | PPG Ag | TO Diff | Cum. Rank | |
| Patriots | 366.8 | 30 | 249.3 | 10.9 | 17 | 3.5 |
| 49ers | 380.4 | 28.8 | 251.6 | 14.3 | 5 | 4.0 |
| Cowboys | 437.4 | 27.9 | 323.2 | 18.9 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Ravens | 421.7 | 33.3 | 344.1 | 21 | 4 | 6.8 |
| Vikings | 384.4 | 26.2 | 333.1 | 18.2 | 5 | 7.5 |
| Texans | 396.7 | 26.4 | 361.4 | 21.2 | 3 | 10.7 |
| Saints | 368 | 22.7 | 316.6 | 20.2 | 4 | 10.8 |
| Chiefs | 404.7 | 28.4 | 369.5 | 23.9 | 2 | 11.7 |
| Seahawks | 389.1 | 27.5 | 372.9 | 25.4 | 6 | 12.5 |
| Rams | 375.8 | 25.1 | 331 | 21.2 | -2 | 12.8 |
| Packers | 356 | 25 | 384.7 | 20.5 | 9 | 13.0 |
| Bills | 336.9 | 19.3 | 304.2 | 16.7 | -1 | 13.7 |
| Steelers | 288.8 | 21.4 | 332.2 | 20.1 | 13 | 14.2 |
| Chargers | 356.2 | 20.7 | 318.3 | 19.4 | -6 | 15.0 |
| Eagles | 347 | 24.9 | 326.3 | 23.7 | -1 | 15.3 |
| Titans | 319.4 | 20.3 | 358.5 | 19.7 | 5 | 15.8 |
| Bears | 262.2 | 18 | 327.3 | 17.4 | 3 | 16.2 |
| Panthers | 346.6 | 25 | 363.4 | 25.3 | 4 | 16.8 |
| Jaguars | 377.1 | 19.6 | 350 | 21 | -2 | 17.3 |
| Colts | 338.8 | 21.6 | 327.6 | 21.4 | -2 | 17.5 |
| Broncos | 311.4 | 16.6 | 309.7 | 18.9 | -3 | 18.5 |
| Lions | 387.4 | 24.1 | 402.1 | 26.3 | 0 | 18.7 |
| Bucs | 385.65 | 28.9 | 376.7 | 31 | -6 | 19.0 |
| Raiders | 370.1 | 23.1 | 381.7 | 26.7 | 2 | 19.7 |
| Cardinals | 351.7 | 22.2 | 412.5 | 28.1 | 4 | 21.2 |
| Browns | 348.4 | 19 | 356 | 24.6 | -8 | 22.7 |
| Falcons | 377.7 | 21.2 | 371.8 | 28.8 | -12 | 23.0 |
| Redskins | 259.1 | 12 | 366.1 | 24.3 | -3 | 26.0 |
| Jets | 231.3 | 14.4 | 344.3 | 26.4 | -5 | 26.0 |
| Giants | 322.2 | 20.3 | 381.7 | 28.9 | -12 | 26.7 |
| Bengals | 316.1 | 15.2 | 429.4 | 28.8 | -11 | 29.2 |
| Dolphins | 258.6 | 13.2 | 391 | 29.8 | -12 | 30.7 |
Feature Match Ups
- Texans at Ravens (-4, Total 49.5) Sunday, 11/17 at 1 PM Eastern/12 Noon Central on CBS – The Ravens are on fire. After beating NE, they crushed the Bengals. Now, the Texans come in off the bye who are on top of the AFC South. Should be a great game. I like the Texans here to knock off the Ravens, Cover +4 and Over 49.5
- Patriots at Eagles (+3.5, Total 44.5) Sunday, 11/17 at 4:25 PM Eastern/3:25 PM Central on CBS – A rematch of Super Bowl 52 here. The Eagles are gaining traction after a slow start, and the Patriots need to regroup after getting punched in the mouth by the Ravens. I trust the Pats to right the ship here. I don’t like the hook on this line, but I’ll still back the Pats on the road to win, Cover -3.5 and Under 44.5.
- Bears at Rams (-6.5, Total 41) Sunday, 11/17 at 8:20 PM Eastern/7:20 PM Central on NBC – The Bears are probably already out of the playoff race, but this is their last shot to get back in it. The Rams have not been the same with Gurley being just a guy. Still, QB Jared Goff plays better at home, and the Bears offense is still bad. The Rams will win, but not cover the -7, I like this game Under 41.5.
- Chiefs at Chargers – in Mexico City (+3.5, Total 52) Monday, 11/18 at 8:15 PM Eastern/7;15 PM Central on ESPN – The Chiefs were supposed to play in Mexico last year against the Rams, so this year they get to go agains the other LA team. The Chiefs were good offensively against the Titans, but that defense, uhhh. The Chargers will try to run the ball at the Chiefs, and I think they will. However, the Chargers are not the same team as last year, and they will be officially eliminated from playoff contention after this one, Chiefs win, Cover -3.5, but Under 52.5.
Enjoy Week 11.
Wegs