Fantasy Football: Time to Cut Bait – Week 7 – 4×4

Fantasy Football is about playing for results and not expectations. After 6 full weeks of action, it is time to know who you can count on for the stretch run to the playoffs. After last week’s review, I’m going to dig into that topic.

Week 6 Top and Bottom Performers

The Victors

• Diggs Delivers – We have been waiting for it, and finally WR Stefon Diggs came through with a huge performance against Philly – 11 targets, 7 catches for 167 yards and 3 TDs (including TDs of 62 and 51 yards). You have to live with ups and downs with him, but he won you your week.
• Lamar’s World – Sunday was why you drafted QB Lamar Jackson (BAL) – he only threw for 236 yards and no TDs, but he ran for 152 yards and a TD against CIN – that led the NFL in rushing in Week 6.
• Hill Is Back – WR Tyreek Hill was activated after suspension, and made a splash immediately catching a bomb from Mahomes jumping over the Texans’ defender for a 46-yard score. Hill put up 5 catches, 80 yards and 2 TDs, not a bad day for the Chiefs’ top WR.
• Ryan Always Trailing – You can’t fault QB Matt Ryan of the Falcons much, he threw for 356 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs against the Cardinals in another loss. However, the Atlanta secondary is awful, which means Ryan will be in shoot outs every week. That’s fantasy gold.
• Connor is Mr. Checkdown – RB James Connor benefitted from the 3rd string QB – Devlin Hodges playing. Connor didn’t gain a lot of rushing yards (41 yards on 15 carries with 1 TD), but he did catch 7 balls for 78 yards and another TD. That is incredible, especially in PPR.

The Losers

• Goff Stinks – The Rams offense is not the same since the Bears showed the blueprint to beat them last season, plus no Gurley. Goff was coming off back to back big yardage days, but on crazy volume. Against the 49ers, he was terrible – 13 of 24 for just 78 yards!?! He also fumbled again, his 4th on the season.
• Time to Bench Jameis – QB Jameis Winston may have thrown for 400 yards and 1 TD, but his 5 INTs (10 INTs on the season) – are going to make Coach Bruce Arians really consider benching him after the bye.
• Mariota’s Days are Numbered – Not that you roster this guy, but QB Marcus Mariota’s effort Sunday, 7 of 18 for 63 yards and 2 INTs, plus only 4 yards rushing spell doom for him. Coach Vrabel turned to Tannehill late (too late) who completed 13 of 16 for 144 yards and an INT. If Mariota doesn’t run, then he is literally worthless in Fantasy and real football. Expect a change there, as that defense is Top 8.

Key Injuries: TE Will Dissily, SEA – appeared to tear his Achilles; WR Amari Cooper, DAL – left with a Quad Strain; RB Todd Gurley, LAR – missed the game with a Quad injury; QB Baker Mayfield, CLE – injured his hip and played through it, but was visibly affected.

Cutting Bait with Under-Performers

So, it is Week 7, and the bye weeks are in full tilt. It is time to get your team right to push for the playoffs which are only 6 weeks away. You have to get real about who can perform for your team and who cannot. Here is how you do it:

• Consistency Wins – Do you have a guy who you don’t know when to trust? One week he is incredible and the next he is terrible? So, here is the rule. If that guy is a potential Top 5 WR in a given Week (like Stefon Diggs), then you keep him. Any other position, QB, RB or TE, then you cut him. Why? Well, the base of your team should be your QB and RB. You should know within a given range what to expect based on a given match up. WRs boom or bust naturally. There are only a few guys – like Tyreek Hill, Diggs and Hilton – who can do that. So, if you have a guy like one of the Chiefs who went off when Tyreek was out or Tyler Boyd (the Bengals stink), then cut him now. You will never be able to guess when those guys go off. With Diggs, Hill or Hilton, they will do it, you just have to ride out when they don’t.
• Schedules Matter – If you are on the fence about a guy who you drafted in the Top 4 rounds, then look at his schedule. If he hasn’t performed to Draft position yet, and his schedule has 3 Top 10 Defenses to play against the position in the next 6 weeks, then look to trade him. Look for another guy who can consistently produce for you or give you upside on the bench.
• You Can Always Stream – QBs and TEs, especially are great streamer positions. If you have Jared Goff, like me, then I’m going to look to play a better match up and drop his sorry butt (he does get the lowly Falcons this week, so…). QBs that cannot consistently get you 17-25 points (depending on format) are going to take you to losses. You waited on QB, great, but that means you have to know when to drop a guy. Goff, Winston, Mariota, even Baker are all guys who you may not be able to count on. I get that Winston and Baker have great weapons, so maybe you keep them on the bench. This week is a great week to stream with those guys on Bye to try it out.

So, it is ok to cut a Round 1-4 player now. You need to win games and build a team that can compete in the playoffs. In the next 5 weeks, there will be emerging players (like Chase Edmonds) who need to be on rosters. Don’t go down with the ship with a guy just because you drafted him. You may have to be more active on the wire or in trades than you expected, but your team can still come through with the right moves.

Week 7 – 4×4 – Waivers, Trade Targets, Unlikely Starts and Caution Players

Byes in Week 7: Browns, Bucs, Panthers and Steelers

Waiver Wire Targets (60% Ownership or Less)

• Ryan Tannehill, QB, TEN (1% Owned) – Tannehill stepped in and actually found WR Corey Davis a few times completing 13 of 16 for 144 yards. I think he gives the Titans’ offense a chance out there. I expect him to start against the Chargers.
• Benny Snell, RB, PIT – (6% Owned) – 18 touches for 89 yards almost all in the 2nd half of SNF. Jaylen Samuels had surgery and Connor left the game. The Steelers are on bye, but still pick him up, as Connor never can stay on the field.
• Robbie Anderson, WR, NYJ (59% Owned) – The Darnold-Anderson connection hit big again with a 92-yard TD that really swung the game for the Jets. In total, Anderson 5 catches for 125 yards and a TD on 8 targets. He is worth the variability with Darnold in the lineup.
• Allen Lazard, WR, GB (0% Owned) – The 6’5″ rookie WR from Iowa State got a chance to play on MNF once Geronimo Allison left the game (and Davante Adams out). Well, he was dominant against man to man coverage with 4 catches on 5 targets for 65 yards and a TD. He is a must add this week given those injuries.

Last Week: Reggie Bonnafon, RB, CAR – didn’t get any touches, again he is a handcuff guy for McCaffery; Chase Edmonds, RB, AZ – came through big time already with 7 touches for 67 yards and a TD (still big on him going forward); Byron Pringle, WR, KC – 2 catches on 3 targets for 24 yards, not what we were looking for; Gerald Everett, TE, LAR – disappointed (along with Goff) 5 targets for just 2 catches and 9 yards – ugh.

Trade Targets (Buy Low Guys)

• Josh Allen, QB, BUF – Buffalo will face defenses ranked 20th or worse over the next 5 weeks. Allen should be feasting in those match ups, and given he is coming off the bye, he may be undervalued even more.
• Alvin Kamara, RB, NO – Kamara has been stymied by the Brees injury, and the Saints uber-conservative approach. Brees will likely come back after their bye in Week 9. Kamara has the Bears, which is a tough match up, then AZ easy). So, the Kamara owner may want to move him given his down stats and the Bears match up.
• DK Metcalf, WR, SEA – Metcalf has already flashed a bit this season. He is coming off a solid effort – 4 for 69 yards, but I think he will be the red zone target for Wilson going forward with Dissly out. I expect him to lead the Seahawks in TDs by the end of the year.
• Darren Waller, TE, OAK – Maybe too late to get this guy, but again, a guy coming off the bye, so some owners tend to forget those players’ value. Waller may lead all TEs in receptions this year, and I expect him to continue good production going forward.

Last Week: Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET – 15 touches for 61 yards and a TD; Miles Sanders, RB, PHI – huge day – 6 touches for 92 yards and a TD (way more explosive than Howard); DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU – still down, 12 targets for 9 for 55 yards (no TD again- still buy low); Robert Woods, WR, LAR – 4 targets, 0 catches, but scored on a reverse for 16 yards at least.

Sneaky Starts (Match Up and Daily Plays)

• Daniel Jones, QB, NYG (FD$7200) – I’ve been a staunch critic of Jones, but he has thrived in plus match ups so far. AZ has given up big days to everyone they have played so far at QB. Jones should throw for 2+ TDs, and he may even get Saquon back this week.
• Philip Lindsay, RB, DEN (FD$6600) – Now, you will have to play a slate that includes TNF, but the Chiefs can’t stop the run. Lindsay has been playing well, and will get the same numbers as a much higher priced RB this week.
• Brandin Cooks, WR, LAR (FD$6700) – Cooks like the entire Rams unit was bad on Sunday, but they will get right at ATL on Sunday. ATL has given up monster performances in back to back weeks and really all season. I like Cooks to go off in this one a la Will Fuller. Plus, it should be a shootout with a 54 point Total.
• DK Metcalf, WR, SEA (FD$6200) – I like Metcalf this week against the Ravens. CB Jimmy Smith may cover him, but I think Lockett will draw the main coverage. DK should score and his price is right.

Last Week: Kyler Murray, QB, AZ – 340 yards passing, 3 TDs and 34 yards rushing – that’s what we wanted; Carlos Hyde, RB, HOU – 27 touches for 130 yards and a TD – yes!!; DJ Moore, WR, CAR – 8 touches for 86 yards (outshined by Curtis Samuel who had 2 TDs); Mark Andrews, TE, BAL – 6 catches for 99 yards – not bad at all.

Caution Players (Maybe Sit Usual Starters)

• Dak Prescott, QB, DAL – The Cowboys are completely banged up. Plus, if Cooper sits again, Dak is really limited in his upside. Philly’s secondary is terrible, but I can’t see Dak taking advantage without a Diggs/Thielen duo.
• Alvin Kamara, RB, NO – Kamara struggled against JAC last week, and was not stellar against the Cowboys. The Bears are better than them both against the run. I have him and have to play him, but you could sit him and be ok.
• Le’Veon Bell, RB, NYJ – The Patriots will shut down Bell this week and make Darnold beat them. I did like how Bell was used against the Cowboys, but he didn’t produce at a high level. Bell may not be able to sit, but he will not get the numbers you drafted him for this week.
• Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – I know he just went off. I also told you that you need to ride him every week. However, if you have another solid option, then bench him. CB Darius Slay will lock Diggs down, and Diggs is not a back to back guy. Finally, I believe that Thielen and Diggs will just alternate week from here on out.

Last Week: Carson Wentz, QB, PHI – 306 yards passing, 2 TDs and 1 INT plus 23 yards rushing – he was fine; Leonard Fournette, RB, JAC – 26 touches for 118 yards – solid, but no TDs; Aaron Jones, RB, GB – 15 touches for 60 yards and a Fumble; Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT – 1 catch for 7 yards on 4 targets (no thanks).

Good luck this week. Get a win!

Wegs