After 2 quick weeks, oh how the landscape has changed.
Week 2 Review
- Patriots D Flexes: The Patriots are on a mission, and unlike past years, it is the Defense which is at an elite level to start the season. In 2 games against the Steelers (33-3) and Dolphins (43-0) – 3 points allowed. The Jets come to town in Week 3….
- Seahawks Outscore Steelers: With QB Big Ben going down for the Steelers, Mason Rudolph did his best, but Russell Wilson hit rookie WR DK Metcalf for a 28 yard TD to give them a 9 point lead that would be enough to win, 28-26.
- Bears Get A Gift: After giving up a late TD and 2 point conversion to the Broncos to give up the lead, the Bears received a gift Roughing the Passer call to help get them in position for a game winning 53 yard FG, 16-14. That Bears offense is completely anemic.
- Rams Man Up Saints: The NFC Title Game rematch was muted, as first the refs called back a Saints’ defensive score in the 1st half after an inadvertent whistle and then the QB Drew Brees thumb injury. The Rams just dominated the Brees-less Saints in the 2nd half for an easy win, 27-9.
- Falcons Dodge A Bullet: The Falcons fought hard at home with a 4 point lead later in the game versus the Eagles, when QB Carson Wentz appeared to hit Nelson Agholor on a go ahead score, only to have it dropped. The Falcons held the Eagles out of the end zone to get the win, 24-20.
- Major QB Injuries: Big Ben (PIT), Drew Brees (NO), Cam Newton (CAR) and Sam Darnold/Trevor Simien (NYJ) – opens the door to young QBs. Scoring has been down already due to rule changes, but having these names start in Week 3 could continue that trend (or Defensive scores) – Gardner Minshew (JAC), Mason Rudolph (PIT), Teddy Bridgewater (NO), Kyle Allen (CAR) and Luke Falk (NYJ) – Wow!!
In the Marquee Games, I went 2-2 S/U and ATS, but 3-1 on the Totals.
Wegs Index – Maybe a little early
If you remember from last, year, the Wegs Index is comprised of 6 key factors:
- Yards Per Game Gained
- Points Per Game Scored
- Yards Per Game Yielded
- Points Per Game Yielded
- Scoring Differential Per Game
- Turnover Differential
The teams are ranked in each category 1-32 and then a cumulative average rank is calculated as the Wegs Index number. Here is the Index after Week 2:
| NFL Index | ||
| Cum. Rank | Record | |
| Ravens | 2.2 | 2-0 |
| Patriots | 2.2 | 2-0 |
| 49ers | 5.7 | 2-0 |
| Bills | 7.0 | 2-0 |
| Chiefs | 7.2 | 2-0 |
| Rams | 7.5 | 2-0 |
| Cowboys | 7.8 | 2-0 |
| Titans | 9.7 | 1-1 |
| Chargers | 10.7 | 1-1 |
| Vikings | 11.3 | 1-1 |
| Lions | 13.0 | 1-0-1 |
| Packers | 13.7 | 2-0 |
| Seahawks | 13.7 | 2-0 |
| Eagles | 14.5 | 1-1 |
| Bears | 14.7 | 1-1 |
| Browns | 14.8 | 1-1 |
| Colts | 15.2 | 1-1 |
| Falcons | 15.3 | 1-1 |
| Panthers | 15.5 | 0-2 |
| Broncos | 15.7 | 0-2 |
| Texans | 15.8 | 1-1 |
| Raiders | 16.0 | 1-1 |
| Bucs | 16.0 | 1-1 |
| Cardinals | 16.7 | 0-1-1 |
| Saints | 18.3 | 1-1 |
| Jaguars | 18.8 | 0-2 |
| Bengals | 19.7 | 0-2 |
| Giants | 20.5 | 0-2 |
| Redskins | 20.5 | 0-2 |
| Jets | 21.2 | 0-2 |
| Steelers | 24.5 | 0-2 |
| Dolphins | 27.2 | 0-2 |
No surprises here:
Top Teams: Ravens, Patriots, and Chiefs in the Top 5, but the 49ers and Bills are there, too. Both teams have won 2 road games to start the year.
Bottom Teams: Dolphins (duh!), Jets, Redskins and Giants, but the Steelers are actually 2nd to last on the backs of their terrible defense so far. Not sure they can turn this season around without Big Ben.
Week 3 Marquee Match Ups
- Falcons at Colts (-1, 47 Total) – Sunday, 9/22 at 1 PM Eastern/12 Noon Central on CBS – The Falcons got the big win at home on Sunday night, but their defense has not been great so far. Plus, their offensive line has been beat up, which shows in their running game. The Colts, even without Luck, have been playing tough. Their offensive line is legit, and I like the Colts to win this game. The only issue for the Colts is the kicker – Adam Vinatieri (retire, already!!) – he is affecting the betting, so I’ll lay the 1 point reluctantly. I like this game to be Under the 47.
- Ravens at Chiefs (-6.5, 52.5 Total) – Sunday, 9/22 at 1 PM Eastern/12 Noon Central on CBS – This is the best game of the first 3 weeks. The Ravens have been incredible, but against 2 of the worst teams in the NFL. The Chiefs offense is as good as it gets, so a classic game, which hopefully will match their meeting in 2018 (a 27-24 OT win by the Chiefs). I do like the Chiefs to win the game, but Ravens to cover the 6.5 spread, and this game will be Under the 52.5 (although very close – the Total opened at 54.5).
- Texans at Chargers (-3, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 9/22 at 4:25 PM Eastern/3:25 PM Central on CBS – The Chargers were a Super Bowl contender until they have lost a starting LT, S, TE, and now 2 injuries at their CBs, not to mention RB Melvin Gordon still holding out. I love the Chargers, in general, but I can’t lay more than a FG, even at home. I think the Texans win the game SU and spread, and I see this as another Under 47.5.
- Rams at Browns (+3, 49 Total) – Sunday, 9/22 at 8:20 Eastern/7:20 PM Central on NBC – The Sunday Night game pits 2 Cleveland based teams, that is right the Rams originated in Cleveland in 1945 after moving to LA, STL, and back to LA. The Browns got their win on MNF, but they really didn’t look great against a very wounded Jets team. This game is Rams as a Favorite, and I think that is right, as they should win. I don’t love that the spread has ticked up to a full FG, so I’ll say the Browns cover that number, and the Total will be again Under 49 (although it started at 50.5 – if it goes under 49 – a key number, then I’d go Over).
Let’s see what mayhem will take place in Week 3.
Wegs