Fantasy Football: Big Changes & PPR Ranks

Well, that wasn’t expected, but we had some huge news that impacts our rankings for drafts. If you drafted already, then hopefully, you covered yourself. Let’s dig in.

Big News

• QB Andrew Luck of the Colts shocked the world in announcing his retirement at just 29 years old on Saturday. I wrote about Luck last week in knowing where you stand with him. Hopefully, you drafted another QB, as I suggested, but the impact is beyond him as QB. WR TY Hilton gets downgraded now about 1 round. He will be the #1 WR, but his production with other QBs has not been at the same level. Also, RB Marlon Mack may get more touches, but he will see more stacked boxes, so he too is downgraded. Finally, TE Eric Ebron drops significantly in the rankings. Sure, he will be a target, but now QB Jacoby Brissett will not break 30 TD passes (Luck threw 39 last year) – that just means less production and especially for a TE who caught more TDs/Target than anyone else in the league.
• RB Lamar Miller in HOU tore his ACL and MCL on Saturday night. So, you now see why guys like Zeke Elliott and Melvin Gordon are holding out. Miller’s loss will hurt the HOU offense, but they did trade for RB Duke Johnson from CLE who will get more work. However, I would expect a veteran RB off waivers – Doug Martin (who is not in OAK anymore), maybe even someone who falls out of BUF (McCoy or TJ Yeldon), so keep an eye out for that news. To me, that means Watson will throw the ball more. Not necessarily an upgrade to him and the passing attack, but the balance will shift for sure.

Here is last week’s article with my updated Standard Ranks with the Luck and Miller news:

Other Draft Observations

I’ve done 2 Drafts now – One Snake Draft and my first Auction Draft. One of the things I noticed right away is this – most people in Home Drafts have not done any research. They use the list on the website, in a magazine or the ADP. So, to me, having your own list or a list that was modified from your website will be better. At a minimum, do some research and do a mock draft to be more prepared from your league mates.

For individual players, here are some observations:

• Tarik Cohen, RB, Chicago – is a bit of polarizing guy. He is going very late in drafts, but he does produce. The narrative is that David Montgomery, the rookie, is going to be the bell cow, but I think that is not going to be the case. I don’t think Cohen is a starter for you, but he is a very good late RB to add for depth on the roster.
• Young RBs – Devin Singletary (BUF), Darwin Thompson (KC) and Tony Pollard (DAL) are all guys who could be late round super stars. Thompson is going first of this group. However, Singletary and Pollard may have a quicker path to carries depending on the vets in front of them. A Zeke return does immediately kill Pollard’s value, but if you can grab him in the 11th round or later, why not? I have Singletary on both my teams so far.
• Corey Davis, WR, TEN – Again, not a huge passing team, but in both drafts, people have forgotten about this guy. He is the #1 WR on a team that should be decent. Plus, Tannehill may get a shot at the QB job, which would increase Davis’s value. He is worth a stab, and you can pick him much later than I’m listing him.
• Old QBs Late – I was a bit shocked how late – Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and even Big Ben are going much later than other QBs. Brady will not throw like he used to, but that is a really good offense. Brees had a shoulder injury to end the season in 2018, so that seems like an overreaction to drop him so far down. Rivers and Ben are in high powered offenses. So, that tells you that you can really wait at QB. I would pair one of these guys with a younger guy to be safe, but there is really no reason to pick a QB early this year.

Points Per Reception (PPR) List

You will see that the rankings do not change fundamentally. However, there are some guys who have more value in PPR for sure – James White (I’m not high on him due to weekly variability), but it is more the downgrading of runner only RBs like Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram (in that offense).

Good luck in your drafts this week. Hopefully, we get some news on Zeke Elliott and Melvin Gordon.

Wegs