Alright, to me, the next most competitive division after the AFC South is going to be the NFC South. The Saints have won the division 2 years in a row, but they will have to earn another title.

NFC South

Saints

It’s All Kamara Now

The Saints could have been the Super Bowl Champs in either of the last 2 seasons. In 2017, the Minneapolis Miracle beat them on the last play in the Divisional Round, and in 2018, the non-called Pass Interference in the NFC Title Game likely cost them a Super Bowl berth and maybe a title. So, can this talented team get over the hump in 2019?

  • Coaches: Head Coach Sean Payton is the 2nd longest tenured coach in the NFL. So, his system along with QB Drew Brees is proven. OC Pete Carmichael enters his 11th season at the position. So, the offense is going to be really good. At the end of 2018, Brees was clearly injured and the downfield attack sputtered which hurt the high powered offense. Perhaps, they will rely more on the ground attack earlier in the year to save the 40 year old QB’s arm. On defense, the DC Dennis Allen has really crafted a defense that is Championship level. The recent drafts have solidified a unit that can play with anyone via pressure upfront and press coverage.
  • Key Departures: Most of the departures were on offense. TE Benjamin Watson was not re-signed (NE) leaving a hole in the offense. RB Mark Ingram also was lost in free agency (BAL), which gives the backfield to 3rd year man Alvin Kamara. C Max Unger retired from the club.
  • Key Additions: TE Jared Cook (OAK) fills the Watson void and can really stretch the defense vertically. RB Latavius Murray (MIN) was signed to fill in for Ingram, and he should be a capable replacement with back to back solid years for the Vikings. DT Malcolm Brown (NE) was signed to solidify the defensive line. Not an addition, but WR Michael Thomas was signed to a long term deal after threatening a hold out.
  • Draft: The Saints did not have a 1st rounder, so in the 2nd, they addressed the Center void and selected Erik McCoy (Texas A&M). The Saints did not have any more picks in the first 3 rounds, so they will rely on their current roster.
  • Final Analysis: A lot of experts see a step back from the Saints, but I do not see it. Brees is still a good QB, the running game is very strong, and the Defense is very under-rated. The Saints do play the first place schedule, but I believe in Brees and Payton to win this tough division again. NFC South Champs.

Falcons

Can Julio and Falcons Get Back to the Playoffs?

The Falcons went to the playoffs in back to back years in 2016 and 2017 with an improved defense and great offense. However, in 2018, the team, especially the defense was decimated by injuries. That led the Falcons offense to carry this team, but they could not overcome the lack of stops on D, missing the playoffs. So, the Falcons are a very good bounce back candidate.

  • Coaches: Head Coach Dan Quinn has taken this team to a near Super Bowl title and handled himself well in adversity last season. On offense, there has been a change at OC to former Tampa Head Coach (and former OC in Atlanta) Dirk Koetter. I like this move a lot. Steve Sarkasian struggled to keep up the pace set by former OCs – Shanahan and Koetter. So, I would expect an improvement in efficiency on offense (even though 2018 was a huge production year due to volume). The offense will likely be more balanced than 2018 when the Falcons trailed often, plus RB Devonta Freeman is back healthy. On defense, it is a little strange, as there is no Defensive Coordinator listed, which means Quinn will really be in charge. They did hire Bob Sutton from KC who was not a good DC, as a Senior Assistant. Quinn runs the Seattle model of defense with pressure and zone coverages.
  • Key Departures: RB Tevin Coleman was lost in Free Agency (SF) losing depth at RB. Other than him, no major changes.
  • Key Additions: I can’t see any, but in reality, the team gets so many players back from injury it is like getting 5-6 free agents versus the mid-season 2018 roster.
  • Draft: The Falcons drafted OG Chris Lindstrom (Boston College) in the first round at 14th overall who should step into the starting lineup. The Falcons traded back into the 1st round at 31 to pick OT Kaleb McGary (Washington) to give the O line depth. Other than the 2 Offensive Line picks, there were no other top 3 round picks.
  • Final Analysis: The Falcons have very good skilled positions and a defense that was good in 2017. That is what Atlanta is banking on a return to the 2016-17 form. I like this team to get back to the 9 win level, but will they win enough games to make the playoffs? I have them just outside of the playoffs at the moment, but they will be the Saints biggest competition in the division.

Panthers

Can Cam Be A Pocket Passer?

The Panthers missed the playoffs in 2018 for the first time in a while. The slow conversion of QB Cam Newton to a pocket passer was mildly successful. However, the late season slide for this team was disturbing. I think the aging defense cost them in 2018.

  • Coaches: Head Coach Ron Rivera is in his 9th year, but I think he is firmly on the bubble entering the 2019 season. Rivera has created an identity with this team, but his risk taking style has cost his team wins. Missing the playoffs will cost him his job this year. On offense, OC Norv Turner returns and will try to get Cam to be that pocket passer. Luckily, Turner has a very versatile back in RB Christian McCaffery plus a lot of dynamic pass catchers. So, there are pieces to score points here. On defense, DC Eric Washington enters his 2nd year at the helm, but I think his leadership led to a slide. The classic front four pressure with some blitzing concepts with zone behind requires players with range and the LB corps is aging.
  • Key Departures: On defense, LB Thomas Davis was not re-signed and S Captain Munnerlyn was cut. On offense, OT Ryan Kalil was not re-signed (NYJ) and WR Devin Funchess left for Detroit.
  • Key Additions: DE Gerald McCoy (TB) was signed to boost the pass rush. LB Bruce Irvin signs a 1 year deal (ATL) in Davis’s place. WR Chris Hogan (NE) was signed to give a veteran in that group with the Funchess departure. C Matt Paradis was signed from Denver to anchor the O line.
  • Draft: The Panthers selected a pass rush specialist in Brian Burns (Florida State) with the 16th overall selection. In the second, OT Greg Little (Ole Miss) was selected for the long term. Plus, in the 3rd, the Panthers selected QB Will Grier (West Virginia) who could be a really good back up to Cam.
  • Final Analysis: The Panthers have chosen to improve the defense with some 1 year signings in McCoy and Irvin to address the 2018 issues. I think that leaves them thin if any injuries come. Burns could help the pass rush, but I don’t think they have the same moxie as in past seasons. The 2019 record will fall to Cam Newton, and I love his style, but I don’t see him leading this offense to the heights necessary to win enough games. I see another 7 or 8 win season this year. Rivera will be sent packing by the end of the year.

Buccaneers

Will Arians Take Jameis to the Next Level?

The Bucs made a change at the top, and with that change have the biggest potential for surprising the division. QB Jameis Winston will be held accountable, and more importantly, you have an actual head coach in place now.

  • Coaches: New Head Coach Bruce Arians ends his retirement to replace Dirk Koetter. Arians was incredible in Arizona, especially when QB Carson Palmer was healthy. On offense, Arians touches the former OC in Arizona Byron Leftwich as his OC. At DC, Arians hires his former DC in Arizona, Todd Bowles (former Jets Head Coach). Bowles is better served as a coordinator, and his blitzing, press coverage scheme should improve over Tampa’s 2018 defense. However, I’m not sure he has the personnel to run his scheme yet.
  • Key Departures: Lots of changes: DE Gerald McCoy (CAR) was not re-signed, DT Mitch Unrein was cut, FS Chris Conte was not re-signed. Plus on offense, WR Desean Jackson was not re-signed (PHI), QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) will not be there if Jameis struggles.
  • Key Additions: DT Ndamukong Suh (LAR) was signed to a one year deal. QB Blaine Gabbert was signed as the back up to Jameis. LB Deone Bucannon was signed from Arizona.
  • Draft: The Bucs took LB Devin White (LSU) with their 5th pick to lead their defense. He is a playmaker. In the 2nd, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (Central MI) can give them depth in the secondary. In the 3rd, CB Jamel Dean (Auburn) could play at some point and S Mike Edwards (Kentucky) adds to the youth movement on defense.
  • Final Analysis: The Bucs will improve from their 5 win campaign. I see them winning 7-8 games this year mainly from the change in play calling on both sides of the ball. The issue will be their lack of talent on the defense at the moment. I think it will take another draft and development to get Todd Bowles’ system in place. So, another missed playoff team in this division.

The NFC South does not have an easy week like in past years. It is competitive in the sense that any of these teams will be around .500 and could make a playoff run. At the moment, I only see the Saints emerging, but admittedly, they are a Brees injury away from losing the division. Should be a very competitive and interesting year in the South.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.