As we roll through the divisions, we hit the 2 most competitive divisions in my opinion this week. Last year with Andrew Luck back at the helm, the Colts reached the playoffs again, while the Texans won the division. Jacksonville and the Titans took a step back.

AFC South

Colts

Luck Makes the Difference Here

The Colts made a head coaching change prior to 2018 that along with Luck back meant a team to be reckoned with. The Colts won game after game down the stretch including a game at Houston in the Wild Card game. However, they ran into a buzz saw in KC in the divisional round. They are a good team.

  • Coaches: Head Coach Frank Reich returns after a very successful rookie campaign. On Defense, DC Matt Eberflus returns and got solid play out of the defense. Eberflus comes from the Rod Marinelli tree, so Tampa 2 style coverage with a strong front four. The young defense should improve organically this year. On offense, OC Nick Sirianni definitely benefitted from Luck’s return. With a really good offensive line, the Colts were more balanced than past years, and it helped to create shot plays down the field. It is always a good sign when the same staff is back from the year prior.
  • Key Departures: No really notable departures for this team. Clearly, GM Chris Ballard likes his roster.
  • Key Additions: WR Devin Funchess (CAR) was signed to a one year deal, and he could complement the speedy Hilton on the outside.
  • Draft: The Colts did not have any 1st round picks, but they were able to grab 3 second rounders to add depth – CB Rock Ya-Sin (Temple) who could be a nickel, DE Ben Banogu (TCU), a pass rush specialist type, and WR Parris Campbell (Ohio State), a fast shifty guy who could be a returner, too. Finally, they added LB Bobby Okereke (Stanford) to go with last year’s super rookie, Darrius Leonard.
  • Final Analysis: On paper, I like the Colts the best in this division. They have the best Offensive Line, the best QB, and their defense is vastly improved from past years. Now, Luck is having issues with a calf injury, but assuming health, they should win 10 games and maybe 11 this year. I have them winning the AFC South.

Texans

The Best WR in the NFL?

The Texans won a lot of close games last year to win the division, but they were manhandled by the Colts in the playoffs. I’m a big Watson fan, but he got hit over 100 times last year, that is not sustainable. This team’s skilled positions are outstanding, but the O Line and potential departure of Jadeveon Clowney scare me.

  • Coaches: Head Coach Bill O’Brien has been able to hold his position with alternating years on the hot seat. He still has DC Romeo Crennel at his side, which helps them play that aggressive style of defense. On Offense, there is a new OC in Tim Kelly who is elevated from the TE Coach – a big step in my eyes. Kelly’s charge is to try and protect Watson. The Offensive Line success is really key to their season in 2019. I think Houston will run the ball a lot more than 2018 to keep Watson healthy.
  • Key Departures: He hasn’t left yet, but Jadeveon Clowney was franchised and wants to be traded to a team that will offer him a long term deal. Clowney opposite JJ Watt is incredible, but if he gets traded, then that weakens that unit tremendously. S Tyrann Mathieu leaves after one season in Houston for KC. CB Kevin Johnson, a former 1st rounder, was cut (signed with Bills). RB Donta Foreman was cut in camp due to attitude issues.
  • Key Additions: OT Matt Kalil (CAR) was signed to a one year deal to help that O Line. S Tashaun Gipson (JAC) was signed to take Mathieu’s spot, and CB Bradley Roby was brought in from Denver to take Johnson’s spot. RB Duke Johnson (CLE) was acquired in a trade recently – he adds another element to the offense.
  • Draft: The Texans selected small school phenom, Tytus Howard from Alabama State, but I don’t see him starting Day 1. In the 2nd round, CB Lonnie Johnson looks like an athletic, big CB from Kentucky, and OT Max Sharping (Northern IL) shows more commitment to the future O Line. Finally, TE Kahale Warring (San Diego State) was picked in the 3rd round.
  • Final Analysis: The Texans have Watson and WR Deandre Hopkins the best duo in the division. However, their roster is not as good as the Colts, and that Clowney move is looming. I feel like the first place schedule will cost the Texans a game or two, so I have them at 9 to 10 wins just missing the playoffs at the moment. They will be right there, but fighting with Cleveland for that last spot.

Jaguars

Foles to the Jags Should Make A Big Difference

The Jags went from almost winning the AFC in 2017 to bottoming out in 2018 mainly due to terrible QB play plus injuries to RB Leonard Fournette. Some changes should help this team compete again, but this division is loaded.

  • Coaches: Head Coach Doug Marrone is back again, but we will see if this will last if there is another down year. On offense, Marrone hired former Minnesota OC (who was fired) John Defilippo. Defilippo fell in love with the pass last year, and it cost him his job mid-season. Jacksonville wants to run the ball, but with their key QB addition, maybe Defilippo can implement the RPO system that Philly employed to win the title in 2017. On defense, DC Todd Wash is still at the helm, but the faces are beginning to change on this former top unit. Wash employs a very aggressive style with a lot of man coverage.
  • Key Departures: The Blake Bortles (LAR) era is over at QB in Jacksonville. Too many turnovers cost the Jags games in 2018. On defense, DT Malik Jackson (PHI) and S Tashaun Gipson (HOU) were cut. On offense, RB Carlos Hyde (KC) was cut, WR Donte Moncrief (PIT), RB TJ Yeldon (BUF) and Ereck Flowers (WAS) were not re-signed. So a lot of changes.
  • Key Additions: QB Nick Foles (PHI) was signed to give steady play at the position. That addition alone makes the Jags better. WR Chris Conley (KC) was signed to take the Moncrief spot.
  • Draft: The Jags got another high end pass rusher in DE Josh Allen out of Kentucky with the 7th selection. They addressed the O Line in the 2nd round with OT Jawaan Taylor (Florida) who does have an injury issue that hurt his stock. In the 3rd, TE Josh Oliver (San Jose State) is a good pass catcher and LB Quincy Williams (Murray State) is slated to start on this tough defensive unit.
  • Final Analysis: The Jags will be tough. I think their defense could win them some games, but to me, the lack of skill positions, especially WR limits their upside. I see them as a 7 to 8 win team and missing the playoffs.

Titans

Henry Is A Freight Train for Titans

The Titans missed the playoffs on the final week of the season in 2018. I’m a big Mike Vrabel fan, but it took them half the year to really get their identity on offense. In this tough division, there are no weeks off. So, they need to get out of the gates quicker than last year.

  • Coaches: Head Coach Mike Vrabel is a tough guy that likes to play physical football. The defense was better in 2018 under DC Dean Pees. Pees comes from the Ravens and Patriots so likely a 3-4 guy that likes to pressure via blitzing. On offense, OC Matt LaFleur gets the Green Bay job putting new OC Arthur Smith calling the plays where he was the TE Coach previously. I’m not sure Smith’s style, but I would guess trying to get RB Derrick Henry the ball, like they did late last year, will be in the cards. QB Marcus Mariota has to be more efficient, which could limit this team.
  • Key Departures: OT Taylor Lewan will start the year suspended 4 games, which will hurt. LB Brian Orakapo was not re-signed.
  • Key Additions: WR Adam Humphries (TB) will help out of the slot for Mariota. QB Ryan Tannehill (MIA) was acquired in a trade as a back up, which is key as Mariota has missed time seemingly every year. The Titans also added OG Rodger Saffold to the already strong line. On Defense, DE Cameron Wake (MIA) is a good addition to add pass rush.
  • Draft: The Titans added a powerful DT in Jeffery Simmons (Miss State) with the 19th overall selection. They also added WR AJ Brown (Ole Miss) in the 2nd who could help. In the 3rd, OG Nate Davis (Charlotte) was selected for depth.
  • Final Analysis: The Titans are a solid team. In another division, I think they would be at the top, but not unlike Jacksonville, I don’t love their skilled positions. They will win games, but I can’t see more than 7 or 8, so another year out of the playoffs.

That is my take on the AFC South. Really good division from top to bottom. Possibly the best division in that regard. The division is not a physical, defensive minded one, but there are still plenty of super stars to make plays.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.