In Part 1, I strongly encouraged you to create your own system of rankings. As I wrote, the reason for this is to have your own comfort in the players you will choose for your team. Just in case you missed it, here is the article:
This week we are focusing on a Draft Strategy
Draft Strategy
Last year I went over several draft strategies you can take into your Draft. After all, there are many ways to approach this. Here is last year’s basic article so we are speaking the same language:
This year I’m going to straight up tell you how to draft. No bones about it.
Value Based Drafting
Some call it Value Based Drafting and others call it Best Player Available (BPA). In either case, you are taking the best players you possibly can at each point of the draft. As I discussed last year, you are competing against other leaguemates who likely will not have their own system, so you already have a leg up. Beyond that, they are probably going to be drafting off the current Average Draft Position or ADP. That is what we are counting on.
ADP Comments
ADP is just that. It is the average of all the drafts on a given site. So, the flaw in ADP is that it will take into affect drafts that took place in May or even earlier. Plus, ADP is essentially what the public believes to be the best player. In betting terms, ADP is betting with the “public.” We are not the public, folks, we are the “sharps” or sharp bettors, in this case sharp fantasy people. Let everyone else follow ADP to the letter.
Now, ADP has a lot of merits. In fact, ADP is very helpful when you are targeting players that you may like a lot, but the public does not. You do not want to take players you really like earlier than the public. Let those players fall to you in later rounds. That is where the Value in Value Based Drafting comes from.
Basic Strategy
In this approach, you will have your list. Your players will be in tiers within the overall ranks by position. You will see how the draft is going, and then you decide when it is appropriate to take the players you want at each selection. The key to this approach is to be patient. In most “home” drafts or drafts with your family and friends, they will be following one ranker or an ADP for your site. So, in the early rounds, things will go really close to script or your prepared list. I would say the first 3 rounds this is true, in my opinion. In those first 3 rounds, there is no need to do anything crazy. Just pick the best player on your list or from the tier you are looking at in those first 3 rounds. In the later rounds, then you will see the value we are talking about. More on that later.
Building Your Team
Again, you are picking your team, so pick guys you want and will be happy with. However, I’m telling you to build your team in a particular way.
First 6 Rounds
Pick 3 RBs and 3 WRs with your first 6 picks. DO NOT PICK A QB!! QB is the deepest position in Fantasy Football. So, you do not have to pick the Top 5 QBs. Just wait. The exception would be in a 2 QB league or Super Flex league where you play 2 QBs every single week. In that case, then I would draft a QB in the first and then use your next 6 rounds to build your team.
Regardless of format, your team will succeed or fail based on your RBs and WRs. Yes, TEs and QBs can be true difference makers, however trust me when I tell you that you will like your team a lot more if you focus on RB and WR early. Why?
In most leagues you have to play 2 RBs, 2 WRs and either a flex or 3rd WR. That means that each week you will play 5 RBs/WRs in some combination. That is over half of your lineup. You typically will only play 1 QB and 1 TE, which means you can really play match ups with it comes to those positions. Professional Fantasy guys sometimes even choose to Stream QB and TE, which means they pick and QBs or TEs each week to play.
It is much harder to do that at RB and WR every single week. Plus, the ideal situation is you know who you will play in half or more of your lineup every week. Less lineup decisions lead to more consistency and predictability. In Season Long leagues, that is what leads you to the Playoffs.
So, yes, you can find value at TE in the first 6 rounds sometimes. If Travis Kelce falls to you in the late 3rd Round, sure, take him. However, you will be more happy with your team if you load up on RBs/WRs with those first 6 picks.
Now, it will really depend on our Draft position and the flow of your draft on when to select each position. However, if you follow your list and exhaust your tiers, then naturally, you will have 3 and 3. I’m not an advocate for Zero RB (waiting to take RBs until Round 4 or 5). Those teams need luck to really win. A balanced approach is the safest and most successful approach – trust me.
Round 7-10
In these rounds, you will take your QB and TE. I treat both of these positions very similarly. I have my top 12 or 14 guys (based on league size). It is ok to be the last guy to take a QB or even if someone takes a 2nd QB before you. Be patient and check your list. If you can pick up another RB or WR that is falling but you have rated in a higher tier, then take the RB or WR. I would just be sure that you can get one of your top 12 or 14 QB, who are Fantasy starters.
For TE, the only caveat I have is that after about TE7 or so, the guys you are picking are about the same. So, think through who you are comfortable with at that point. Remember, TE8 or higher can typically be easily replaced on the Waiver Wire, so sometimes it is better to either look at Week 1’s match up for the TEs remaining or to pick a high upside TE at that stage. SF’s George Kittle was that guy last year – he went in the 11th round in my 14 team draft last year!! He was a league winner by most, and I don’t think he was selected earlier than the 9th round in any league in America. Keep that in mind at TE.
The other 2 picks in this range would be High End Handcuffs for your top RB(s). If you select in the Top 4 and are picking a RB, then you may have to take your handcuff RB earlier than you’d like to cover yourself. Some RBs do not have clear handcuffs like David Johnson in Arizona. So, maybe you wait there. However, let’s say you draft Todd Gurley in the 2nd Round and he is your RB1, you better grab Darrell Henderson by Round 10 or he will be gone.
The other pick in this range is a pure value pick. You would be shocked to see players who are just forgotten at this stage. Maybe it is an underperformer from 2018. I really think you can find a value in this range.
Picks 11-13
This is when your research pays off. Use the next 2-3 picks to speculate on upside guys. Leave your last pick for your Kicker and your 2nd to last pick on a Defense – DO NOT PICK A K or DST earlier than the end of your draft.
That leaves you 2-3 picks on guys who we call “Sleepers” or guys who can make a difference later in the season. 3 Types of Guys I want here:
- Rookie RBs – I love to take a Rookie RB that may not have the job yet, but could emerge by Week 4 or 4 – think Alvin Kamara 2 years ago or Jeremy Hill (CIN) in 2014 (11th Round Selection) – both guys won me the title that year. The NFL is tough on RBs, and fresh legs are king. Pick 2 or 3 rookies that could be the man later and take a shot in Round 11 or even Round 10, if you are worried they will go.
- Breakout WR – No often the ADP has factored this in, but there is always a 2nd or 3rd year WR who will make a quantum leap. Think Tyler Boyd (CIN) last year – who went undrafted in my league. Look at the depth charts on really good offenses or with top veteran WRs who get injured often. The #2 or #3 WR on that team, if he is a young guy then that is a good candidate.
- 2nd QB – I normally am a proponent of 1 QB on my roster, however, if you did what I told you and waited at QB, then you may want to pick up a 2nd one who has upside – Patrick Mahomes last year was selected in Round 9 or higher as a back up on most teams – 10th round in my 14 team league. Lamar Jackson went undrafted last year and emerged as a fantasy stud down the stretch. This is where you pair a young, Kyler Murray, with a known commodity in Philip Rivers or Tom Brady. Give yourself a chance at upside.
For all 3 of these positions, I’ll put together my guys who I like this year. I’ll publish that the week of the biggest Draft weekend – August 24th. These guys do not cost you much on Draft Day, but they are the guys who give you hope and dreams. We all need that.
Final Picks
Kicker and Defense – just wait – don’t waste draft capital on these slots.
So, must to review. We are going to do Value Based Drafting. Let the draft come to us as the other follow ADP and don’t have their own system. We are going to draft 3 RBs and 3 WRs with our first 6 picks to build the bones of our team. Then, we will look at QB and TE with some value guys mixed in. In the later rounds, we are going to take our shot with younger players that could emerge to be fantasy studs in 2019 at a much lower cost. Finally, we will fill out DST and K to finish our Draft.
That is the Draft strategy. Believe it. Feel it.
Next week, we will talk about Mock Drafts and how to get tuned up for your actual drafts at the end of the month. Keep fine tuning your lists and tiers, and then we will be ready to put them into action.
Until next week.
Wegs