Alright, the NFL season is right around the corner. What does that mean? Fantasy Football!! Most drafts will occur in the next 30 days, so the amount of information flying around from training camps will confuse and amaze us all. It is my goal to give you a rudder to steer your ship through the waters to a very solid team that can win your Championship.
Fantasy Football Basics
I wrote a series last year to go over the Fantasy Football Basics – 101 & 102 – check them out to get the different formats, positions, etc.
I did do Draft Strategies last year in the 200 series, which, of course read. This year I’m going to do a special 3 part series on Draft Day Prep.
Draft Day Prep – Part 1
For the newbies, the Draft is the most fun experience if you have a fun group of leaguemates. As I’ve written before, I strongly suggest getting together in person, even if you are administering the draft on your phone. The trash talk, camaraderie, and the excitement of the season all make the Draft a must. In my 2 leagues, they are very different, but there is a tradition of good food, adult beverages and good natured ribbing. So, schedule your Draft today!
Preliminary Work
Every league portal will provide you with a few things:
- 2018 Statistics
- 2019 Projections – based on your scoring system
- Player Profiles and Updates
- Some type of Expert Advice
The key is for you to create your own system. Personally, I create my own rankings based on 2018 Stats and 2019 projections. I do check the expert rankers to see if I’m in the ball park with them, but I do not rely 100% on any one expert. Regardless, pick a system that works for you. Maybe it is simply looking at one guy – Matthew Berry (ESPN), the Guru (fantasyguru.com) or Jamey Eisenberg (CBS). That’s fine, then stick with it.
Benefits of Your Own System:
- The “experts” do know their stuff, but they are not accountable to your league. You are the one who will win or lose the league not the Expert. So, relying on an Expert (even my list) needs to be adapted to your league.
- You have to like your team. Everyone has opinions formed through research or getting talked up on Sirius XM Fantasy – yet, if you make your own list/rankings, then you know why you put one RB over another. Trust me when I tell you that when you are on the clock to make your pick in the 5th round, it will be easier if you have done the list versus the “Expert” or ADP rankings.
- The last reason to use your own system is you are doing the work now that you can use during the season. The Draft is a huge part of your success, but once the season starts, In Season Fantasy and Roster Management is just as important to winning. If you rely on someone else to pick your team, then you will not have the tools to evaluate your team or potential Trades and Free Agency moves on your own.
I’ll get off my soap box now, but clearly I believe in doing your own research. The rest of this article will be how to do it.
A Sample System
Step 1: Download or Enter Data into a Spreadsheet
Personally, I dump in the 2018 Statistics as a starting point. No, 2019 will not be a repeat of 2018, but you have to start somewhere. The way I do it is put all the relevant stats in columns. For example, Carries, Yards, TDs, Fumbles, etc. for Running Backs. Then, I put a column with my scoring system in a formula based on that system to get their 2018 scoring total. You can find the data on Espn.com or NFL.com.
The result will be a simple stack rank of last year’s guys by position. I create a tab for each position, so I have QB, RB, WR and TE (I don’t do this for Kicker or Defense – more on that later). I sort the list putting the highest points at the top of the list on down.
Of course, this is not the end, this would be drafting purely based on last year’s performance (a definite mistake), but like I said, you have so start somewhere.
Step 2: Enter In Your Projections for Each Player
Here is where I’m ok if you want to rely on your site or an expert who actually projects all players. Most sites have the projections available to anyone, so you can simply enter in what you see. Or if you are me, then I do a blend of last year’s results, expert projections and my thoughts on the player. This does take longer than the download, but don’t get overly critical of yourself here. Don’t use 0.5 TDs or random amount of yards. I would stick with general numbers. Here is an example:
Patrick Mahomes threw for over 5000 yards and 50 TDs in 2018. That is an all time great year. So, I put 4500 yards and 40 TDs instead. Now, since I’m the creator of the projection, then I’ll still have Mahomes lead the league in yards. Just keep that in mind as you go down the list and break the group down at even increments – a group at 4500 yards, then another at 4000.
Remember, you are not doing a statistical regression of NFL stats. You are trying to come up with a usable list for your draft. Once you have re-entered your 2019 projections into the spreadsheet you downloaded the 2018 stats to, then the total scoring projection should calculate automatically.
Re-run the list from Top to Bottom, and you my friend have your preliminary positional ranking. Not bad, right?
Step 3: Tier Players
The positional ranking is helpful, and I do expect you to do a reality check on it. Like do you really think Baker Mayfield is going to throw for 45 TDs this year? The best way to do this is to ignore the projection column. That’s right, you did the Quantitative work, and now you are going to do the Qualitative Analysis.
Use the rankings as a starting point, but cut and paste players in the order you would pick them in. As I’ve wrote about before, you should order your players into Tiers.
What’s a Tier? Well, think of it this way, which of the RBs would I select in the Top 5 picks? That is a tier of guys. Which QB would I be happy taking after I have my RBs and WRs? That is a tier.
So, use your projections to start and then re-order your list into groups. Typically Tiers will be Elite (Top 5 RBs/WRs, Top 3 TEs, Top 3 QB), High End (Next 10 RB and WR, 3-5 for TEs and QBs), Solid Starters (Next 10-15 Players for RB/WR, Next 5 for TE and QB). That will give you the basis of your Top 20-25 RBs and WRs, Top 10-12 QB and TEs. These are your “Starters.” Now, more on when to take QBs and TEs later, but for each positional group, the result of this exercise is to group like players who will be staring at you on Draft Day.
Once you have your Tiers created, then you will order the Tiers themselves.
Step 4: Order Your Tiers
This part is the true art to Fantasy for me, and you will make adjustments for the next 30 days up until Draft Day.
Of the Top 5 RBs, who do you like the best? Said another way, if you had the #1 pick, who would you pick. The same goes in each tier because each round you will have a group of guys to choose from. It may not be the 1st pick overall, but you make a similar decision on players. Here is where you really can control your rankings. Here is an example:
High End WR Tier: Personally, I have the following guys in this Tier (at the moment): Antonio Brown (OAK), Tyreek Hill (KC), Mike Evans (TB), Adam Thielen (MIN), Keenan Allen (LAC), TY Hilton (IND), Odell Beckham (CLE), Amari Cooper (DAL) and Stefon Diggs (MIN). That is my list from 6-14.
You have to be comfortable with your team. Personally, I don’t want Odell Beckham on my team this year. I’m not his biggest fan in general, but I believe QB Baker Mayfield will spread the ball around a lot more than in NY. That is why Odell is not a Top 5 guy for me first off, and I have purposely put him down in the Tier. I’ve weighed my own tolerance for upside players (Tyreek Hill/Stefon Diggs) and steady production players (Keenan Allen/Adam Thielen). I will change this 20 times before draft day based on camp news, etc., but this tier will be pretty solid come Draft Day. In the end, I would be happy with any of them at one point of the draft, but I do have preferences for some players over others.
Step 5: Combine Tiers from All Positions into Master Rankings
The last step is really the key element. Once you have your tiers tweaked, then you can start putting the positions together. Ideally, you will maintain the tiers by position, so you would list the first 4 RBs first, then the WRs, then back to the next tier of WR. It is not a perfect system here, but the idea to me would be that you would maintain the tiers of positions within the main rankings. Here is an example:
As you can see, I’ve put my top RBs first, then split the WRs a bit, but I maintain who I would prefer in each grouping. Now, we will discuss draft strategy in another post, but the idea here is to have your own list that you are comfortable with on Draft Day.
You will make tweaks all month as news comes out. Like if I know Melvin Gordon continues to hold out, then I may remove him from my list or move him down 2 or 3 tiers. Injuries happen, so adjust accordingly. Finally, as we will talk about later, Draft strategy may change how this is ordered especially in the later rounds.
Remember, the main goal of this post and your early prep is to get your own system down. Who do you like? Make your own projections and preferences in your rankings. Then, as you further research over the month, you will tweak and change your rankings.
Next week, I’ll tackle Draft Strategy and how you should approach your draft.
Get started on Draft prep and begin your Championship run today. Have fun with it!
Wegs