The NBA is rivaling the NFL as being a year round league experience. It seems like a year ago that the Raptors won the title, but in reality, it was just 2 weeks ago. Now, the entire league is on the precipice of massive change. The free agent pool is very large with incredible talent potentially changing teams. That will make for a very exciting season ahead. The fun officially begins on Sunday, June 30th.
Free Agency Basics
I would like to explain to the novice what is actually happening this weekend, so it makes more sense. One of the greatest concepts that most major professional leagues adopted back in the late 80s and early 90s was this concept of Free Agency. In the old days, a team selected a player in the Draft (which we have discussed) and then that player really had no choice but to play for that team their entire career. However, the team could decide to Trade a player to another team for other players, draft picks or cash considerations at any time during the player’s contract. The player would then move to the new team under their previous contract, regardless of their desire to play for the new team.
In the 80s, the players in all major sports and their unions became a little stronger through strikes and lock outs. Those union moves increased the power of the player to say where they wanted to play. So, under what is called the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), the rules for how a player could be treated were outlined to a greater degree. The advent of Free Agency allowed a player at the end of their contract to literally choose which team they wanted to play for. The player theoretically could play for any team in the entire league, and more importantly renegotiate their contract to maximize their earnings. That is the key point. The CBA dictates the limits on those contracts, but in theory, a player who was really good could move to the team they wanted and get a paid incredibly for it.
Fast forward to 2019 in the current NBA, and you have what can only be considered a “Player Friendly” environment. Since the NBA has such lucrative contracts with their broadcast partners like TNT and ESPN/ABC, the contracts for a player today are in the 10s of Millions of dollars. Top Free Agents can command multiple year deals totaling in the 100s of Millions of dollars. The other key factor to NBA contracts is that all NBA contracts are guaranteed, which means that if a player signs for $30MM per year, and they stink or get hurt, then the player will make that money for the duration of the contract anyway. Nice, huh?
One last element of this is how the NBA structures the team salaries. Each team has what is known as a “Salary Cap.” So, there is a limit on how much each team can pay their players each year. This is common in most sports. A team can choose to go over the “Cap,” however they will suffer a penalty known as a “Luxury Tax.” That is very costly for owners, and it is the NBA’s way of leveling the playing field between teams. The Cap factors in a great deal in signing these Free Agents because the team has to have enough “Cap Space” to offer the highly paid free agents, but still have money left over to fill in the rest of their roster. Most teams employ a “Capologist” who understands the cap math and the impacts of each contract with regards to their team. It is really complicated. With all this said, let’s dig into the Free Agent pool this year.
Top Tier Free Agents
Kevin Durant, Warriors – Durant, as everyone knows by know, has a torn Achilles Tendon and really won’t play in the 2019-20 season. Still KD has waived his “Player Option” meaning he could have stayed with the Warriors for $30MM or so to be on the team next year. Instead, he enters free agency to get what they call a Max Deal. He will likely become the highest paid NBA player of all time come next week.
Likely Destination: I thought he was going to either stay with the Warriors to win again when he recovers or he was rumored with the Knicks forever. However, all the recent news points for him to go to Brooklyn to play for the Nets and another high profile Free Agent. So, KD in Brooklyn, but not until 2020-21 making $200MM over 4 years or so.
Kawhi Leonard, Raptors – Part mercenary, part robot, Kawhi did what he was traded to do, win the title for Toronto. The Raptors took a shot in his last year and traded for him, which worked out, but will he stay now that he is a free agent? I’ve heard a lot of stuff, but I’m not sure if even Kawhi knows yet. He has a scheduled trip to LA to see the Clippers on July 2nd. So, it won’t be an immediate decision for the NBA Finals MVP.
Likely Destination: Either stay in Toronto or go to the Clippers, where he is from originally. The Clippers do have a young core of guys and the cap space, so it’s hard to imagine walking away after the title. We will see.
Kyrie Irving, Celtics – The Boston experiment for Kyrie failed. So, Irving is going to take his ball dominant style elsewhere. All signs point to the Nets, as well, and the latest is he has convinced KD to join him. He will make $40MM or more per year, not a bad chunk for a guy who is really the #2 option.
Likely Destination: Brooklyn Nets
Jimmy Butler, Sixers – Another mercenary here. Butler came up with the Bulls and made himself into a Top 15 guy, which I can’t blame him for going who pays him the most. He first went to Minnesota, then in a way forced a trade out this past season to the Sixers for a run at a title. Now, with the contract up, he will get paid to play for a contender, no doubt.
Likely Destination: Either stay in Philly with the young core or I’ve heard rumors of a sign and trade to Houston for Chris Paul. The Paul contract is an albatross for Houston and as a result there is no cap space. They would need Butler to sign a contract with Philly then trade him for Paul (who the rumor is he can’t get along with Harden). Butler will be a valuable piece wherever he goes.
Kemba Walker, Hornets – Walker is a really good player who has been the best player on the Hornets. He is the right kind of player for the right coach.
Likely Destination: All signs point to Boston here with the Kyrie departure.
Next Level Guys
Tobias Harris, Sixers – Harris was traded mid-season, like Butler to the Sixers. They want to keep them both, but maybe they can’t. Harris is a really solid player who will be good on any team.
Likely Destination: Stay with Sixers.
D’Angelo Russell, Nets – Russell has definitely elevated his status after the Lakers debacle. He played very well last year, but the Nets are opening the world up for Kyrie. Russell could go pretty much anywhere, including the Lakers who have limited cap space.
Likely Destination: Not sure, maybe Charlotte if Kemba leaves.
Nicolas Vucevic, Magic – Maybe you haven’t heard about this guy, but he is really good. Perhaps the best NBA guy you’ve never seen play. He will get paid this year, and maybe even for a contender. I can see him going somewhere to just get the big payout and not really worry about winning though.
Likely Destination: I’m guessing the Knicks, since they have missed out on everyone else.
Other Guys
There are a ton of other free agents that will change teams. Here are a few names that will be coveted, especially on contenders to fill their rosters:
- Patrick Beverly, Clippers – the pesky guard would be great alongside Lebron in LA.
- Bojan Bogdanovic, Pacers – really solid player that could find his way to a contender like Denver.
- Julius Randle, Pelicans – with all AD trade action the odd man out may be Randle who is young and can score in this league. Not sure where he goes.
- Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks – Brogdan is a really good young player, but the Bucks may not be able to keep him and the rest of the core from the top regular season East squad. I think he may end up a Bull…
Let the fun begin.
Wegs